Corn

Corn has been in a bull market since last July, and although I've tracked it only on an occasional basis, I'll be looking for low-risk opportunities to get aboard its next flight. For now, though, we'll try to develop an analytical feel, first by watching to see how the September contract handles the midpoint pivot and 'D' resistance of the pattern shown.  An easy move through both would give us reason to hunt more aggessively for entry spots just above these levels.

We usually use the Hidden Pivot targets of larger patterns to set up 'camouflage' trades on charts of lesser degree.  In this case, however, in July Corn there is a compelling trendline that might better serve our purposes.  It implies a test of support at exactly 687-5/8 if it happens today (i.e., Monday), and so I'll suggest looking for a tradable turn there, and catching a ride northbound on the first ABCD pattern that subsequently develops.  Because the trendline is so obvious, we should expect at least a small feint below the support before the futures turn around, so plan accordingly.  And if you do get aboard, be sure to take a partial profit on half the position if 'p' is reached, since a breach of the trendline could turn out to be the bearish real McCoy. ______ UPDATE (June 21, 3:45 a.m. EDT): The support has migrated up the trendline to 388 today, implying the opportunity touted above still holds, albeit at the new number.

The distinctive b-c pullback on Wheat's hourly chart suggests that the 607.25 Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown will be worth shorting. Let's try it with a single contract and a three-tick stop-loss. You'll be on your own if the order fills, but you should lower the stop to make the trade risk-free if the futures pull back from the target by more than 2.5 cents. ______ UPDATE: We'll back off the trade, since the rally looks powerful enough to heat-seek the 617 high recorded on November 9.

Corn gapped-up limit on Friday, but in the perspective of the daily chart, it was nothing spectacular. To cut the move down to size, I'll note that the futures appear bound for a 567-6/8 target, a Hidden pivot that comes from the daily chart.  The midpoint resistance at 511.00 was trashed so badly that the target would appear to be a lock.  However, the December contract will need to do somewhat better, exceeding a look-to-the-left peak at 600-4/8 recorded in September of 2008, to refresh the bullish impulse on the weekly chart.

The futures appear to be consolidating around a 425 4/8 midpoint resistance whose 'D' sibling lies at 445 2/8. Since most of the price action over the last three days has been above the midpoint, we should infer that a thrust to the target is imminent.  Please note that the "softs" are notorious for making such moves either when Pivoteers are sleeping, or in such a way as to be inaccessible via a conservative buy-stop entry. In this case, any print above August 16's 433 high would create the impulse leg needed to create a possible camouflage opportunity.

Corn is following wheat higher and should be presumed capable of reaching 442 6/8 (basis December), the 'D' target shown in the chart. The midpoint resistance at 409 4/8 has been smashed, although  pullback to that number would be a logical spot to board using a camouflage ABC pattern on the 3- or 5-minute chart. _____ UPDATE: The futures pulled back to as low as 407  after a fleeting spike to 438 6/8.  It was possible to get long thereafter taking very little risk -- on August 8 at 419 2/8 -- but the ride would have been stopped out the next day with a small profit.