E-Mini Dow

We shorted 12355 and took a partial profit on the 29-point pullback that ensued. I'll assume that any subscriber who took the trade covered on a feint later in the day to 12379, but if you stayed short, please let me know in the chat room or at rick@rickackerman.com so that I can establish a tracking position of two contracts for your further guidance. In any event, as suggested with the E-Mini S&Ps, you should look for opportunities to re-short this vehicle at the 'p' midpoint or 'd' target of any minor, upward abcd retracement that occurs. In addition, I'll be posting explicit entry instructions for subscribers here and in the chat room if I spot a compelling opportunity intraday.

Two Hidden Pivots, each with the potential to produce a major top, lie not far above at, respectively, 12356 and 12412.  The provenance of both is shown in the accompanying chart, and it leaves little doubt that serious resistance is going to be felt at or somewhere between those two numbers.  We'll be looking to get short any way we can, so stay tuned for updates here and in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Thursday night):  Short either target with an offer two ticks below the pivot and a stop-loss as tight as seven ticks. _______FURTHER UPDATE (2:29 p.m. EST):  My 12356 target was close to a dead-center bullseye, since it nailed the high of today's so far 67-point rally within a single tick.  If you were able to get short, partial-profit taking was in order, since the pullback so far has achieved a low of 12327.  You're on your own from this point forward, but you should take steps to ensure that no matter what happens you'll reap at least a small profit. Multilot entries should retain at least a small portion of the original position for a possible grand slam. Keep in mind, though, that there is still one more rally target to go, so odds favor the position's being stopped out.

Shorts held after Monday's close could have been closed out for a very small gain above 126, although getting long on the same cue would have required the patience to wait several hours for the first camouflage opportunity. From here the futures look bound for at least 12261, a Hidden Pivot that can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as five ticks.  If it's blown away, look for the rally to continue to 12308.  (Both of these targets are easily found on the 15-minute chart.) Night owls looking to board for the expected ride north will find camouflage difficult to find, since the futures are at new highs for this Mother of All Bear Rallies.

Yesterday's hundred-point rally missed my target by a single point, which means that officially we did nothing. Unofficially, however, and as I took pains to detail in today's commentary, I managed to talk shorts who front-ran the order into bailing out of what would have been a profitable position.  Notwithstanding my discussion at the time of why the bull would be re-energized if buyers got past the target, the fact remains that they didn't.  That should tip our bias negative for the very short term, so if you had the cool to hold the short position, I'll suggest using the creation of a bullish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart as a signal to stop yourself out. As of 11:15 p.m. EST, with the futures trading at 12108, that would take a print at 12126.  By implication, if you're looking to get long, a camouflage opportunity could conceivably become manifest at that time.

The futures look bound most immediately for 12142, a Hidden Pivot shown in the chart.  The target looks not only like a high-odds bet as a minimum upside price objective, but also a good place to attempt shorting with a stop-loss as tight as 12151. If you're not reversing a long position there, a camouflage entry is recommended for the short.

The rally pattern shown in the chart is just gnarly enough to appeal to the twisted Pivoteer, so if you fit that description -- or even if you only aspire to the dementia that day trading can sometimes induce in people who are otherwise mentally sound -- let's try shorting its 'D' target, 12035, via a 12034 offer and a 12038 stop-loss.  The pattern is reproduced alongside for your delectation. _______ UPDATE (4:04 p.m. EST): The target was a dead-center bullseye, allowing us to get short precisely at the intraday high, 12034.  A pullback so far to 12009 has provided a cushion, but anyone who took this trade in the final minutes of the session will have to be diligent in applying a stop-loss after-hours.  You're on your own now, but I'd suggest covering half of any multi-lot position at a current price of around 12012.  Of what remains, keep a contract or two for a possible home run. If you hold just a single contract, trail a stop so that you can profit from further weakness while ensuring that the possibility of an actual loss is remote. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (February 4, 12:36 p.m. EST): The futures dipped no lower than 12005 overnight before this nasty little ferret lunged for the ankles of shorts. The rabid price action that has followed this morning took the futures as high as  12053 and as low as 1198o, all signifying nothing in particular.  We'll continue to short this and other index vehicles at every promising Hidden Pivot top simply because we can do so with little or no risk.  In fact, and as you will have surmised, we can often make a small profit even when we have guessed "wrong." 

I've reproduced the Mini-Dow's chart because it contains an opportunity similar to the one discussed in today's E-Mini S&P tout.  Note how a quickly formed A-B-C has begotten a tedious upward grind whose so-far high lies just shy of a longstanding 'D' target at 11491.  You can short it with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but if the stop is tagged I'll suggest trying again at 11510, a target derived from using the lowest low shown in the chart as point 'A'. _______ UPDATE: The futures topped for the day at 11487, four ticks below the target, but I'll suggest canceling the order rather than trying for sloppy seconds.

A rally target given here earlier has been superseded by a new one at 11474 that is equivalent to the one given in today's tout for the E-Mini S&P.  You can short it with a stop-loss as tight as six ticks.  Please note that, unlike the Mini S&P, this vehicle has already breached the midpoint resistance, 11380, implying the target itself is likely to be reached. _____ UPDATE: 11448 is as high as it got, so we did nothing.

The rally pattern shown in the chart looks felicitous for either buying or shorting, depending on your mood.  It features single-bar coordinates for A, B and C, but also the kind of eye-jarring asymmetry that tends to throw Gartley riff-raff and other 1-2-3 pattern-players off the trail.  The high at the right-hand edge fell just a single tick from the 11380 midpoint, so any move above it should be considered a declaration that the futures are on their way -- precisely -- to 11474.  It's impossible to know how the breakout will play out, but 'camo' traders should be alert to any buying opportunities that crop up once the midpoint has been exceeded.