E-Mini S&P

Friday's pathetic excuse for a rally died within a single tick of the 1406.00 midpoint resistance shown. If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded come Sunday night, however, look for short-covering to drive the futures at least to its 'D' sibling, 1425.50 (which number, incidentally, you can short with a three-tick stop-loss).  Camouflageurs can try getting long on a B-C pullback from just above the external peak at 1407.75 visible on the 3-minute chart (3/28 at 10:06 a.m. EDT).  _______ UPDATE Sunday, 9:09 p.m.) The unmitigated scumballs who work the night shift (full disclosure: I was a floor trader myself for 12 years and am using the word 'scumballs' affectionately) have done what they do best on Sunday nights -- i.e., gapped the futures higher on near-zero volume.  This routine rip-off is bullishly impulsive, of course, but it has left no subtle camouflage opportunities for us to exploit at the moment. My gut hunch is that a tradable 'X' will come following the second 'C' of this so-far pattern on the 15-minute chart: A=1401.50 (4:15 p.m. EDT on March 30), B=1410.25.  In any event, absent short-squeezable news overnight, there is not likely to be sufficient buying power for DaBoyz to attempt to run stops above Wednesday's 1412.25 peak.  Under the circumstances, we should look for a relatively shallow correction overnight to set up a short-squeeze goosing just before, or immediately after, Monday's opening bell.

A bullish ABC pattern with a 1455.75 target referenced here earlier is getting messier by the day, but we'll continue to use it because it's all we've got. The midpoint resistance lies at 1418.25, and although it was recently exceeded by 1.50 points, that's not enough to make a run-up to 1455.75 a done deal. Under the circumstances, traders should focus on bullish set-ups, but only those that would pass muster with the finickiest of camouflageurs. In the chart shown, that implies waiting for a pullback from just above external peak #2 at 1412.25. More immediately, a riskier trade set-up would become manifest on the hourly chart with a pullback from just above the 1404.00 peak recorded on the way down yesterday in the wee hours.

The E-Mini S&Ps were just a few ticks from jumping the gun shortly after 3 a.m. EDT, toying with the 1402.00 entry trigger of a rally pattern projecting to 1431.25.  A further rise of 12 points, exceeding the 1411.75 midpoint, would imply the run-up is under way, leaving the stingy bid I'd advised down at 1392 in the dust.

If bulls are going to reverse two days of moderate weakness, look for them to make their move near the 1392.25 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown.  Since the pivot is just a tick above an obvious structural support at 1392.00, the most effective way to trigger a low-budget liftoff would be to run stops just below the support.  Accordingly, traders should look for a camo abc rally on charts of 3-minute degree or less to get long at the pattern's point 'X'.  ________ UPDATE (11:37 a.m. EDT): An easy breach of the midpoint support has put the futures on course for a further fall to 1385.25, its 'd' sibling. You can bottom-fish there with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot webinar and a coupon good for a $50 discount.)

We're using a 1455.75 target as a lodestone for now, although yesterday's punk action should have put traders off any sentimental attachment to it. For purposes of getting long, I'll suggest using 'p' and 'd' retracement targets that look nice on the 15- or 30-minute chart.  To actually set-up a 'camo' entry trigger, however, you'll need to hunker down on the three-minute chart. Notice in the specimen shown the nice crop of 'external' peaks ready to be harvested for that purpose.

Seems like only yesterday that we were salivating over the prospect of shorting 1412.75, the juicy 'D' target of a bullish pattern that goes all the way back to January.  Now, however, DaBoyz look like they'll make short work of that Hidden Pivot as they set their sights on a new number in the firmament: 1455.75, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown.  Although I'll encourage camouflageurs to try shorting the 1418.25 midpoint for the practice, the more promising approach will be to look for a way to get long on  whatever B-C 'camo' pullback occurs following a decisive move past the midpoint. The entry opportunity at 'X' could come up fast, so be ready.

Two weeks of range-trading have sapped my enthusiasm for trying to get short at a potentially important top.  Last week's high fell nearly five points short of the 1412.75 Hidden Pivot I'd had in mind, and the duel between bulls and bears since has been too feeble to care about. To be sure, bears held a small edge when trading drew to a close last week.  But bulls could parry with a mere 5-point rally that would even things up.   The chart shows what this would imply, but also a potential 'camouflage' opportunity from the long side for nimble pivoteers.

Put the 1412.75 target out of mind for now, but please note that the futures' failure by nearly 5 points to reach that Hidden Pivot is not a healthy sign. Bulls could easily get back on track today with a push merely to 1398.25, but failing that, they could grope their way 20 points lower today before finding traction. Night owls should look for 'camouflage' opportunities to get long via b-c pullbacks from in-between the closely spaced series of peaks labeled in the chart.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. We're still fixing to short 1412.75 via camouflage, assuming the futures ever get there.  As noted here earlier, traders should start looking for a tradable downturn if and when the futures touch 1410.50, and to initiate the trade on the first downtrending ‘X’ that meets our established criteria. If there’s an obvious fill (and corroboration thereof in the chat room), I’ll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.