E-Mini S&P

Friday's price action was pure slop, but it put the futures on-track nonetheless for a push to the 2154.25 target shown. There are some 'external' peaks you can use to get aboard via 'camouflage,' and I've labeled them for your guidance. Also, Hidden Pivot levels x, p and p2 can be used 'mechanically' to get long on the way up provided you know how these set-ups work. (If not, just ask in the chat room once any of these levels has been exceeded by at least 3 points. That is a precondition for any 'mechanical' trade.) I will update this tout if index futures open weak enough Sunday night to jeopardize the rally pattern -- a minor one so far, to be sure.

This will be scant comfort to those who were on the wrong side of today's short-squeeze, but I have serious doubts that the futures are destined for new record-highs. At least a little more pain seems likely nonetheless, since the usual suspects were ratcheting the futures lower in after-hours trading, presumably to dry up sellers for an opening-bell goosing on Friday. To take some of the guesswork out of whatever it is the Dirtballs intend, I'd suggest using the pattern shown. As long as this evening's mild weakness doesn't exceed the labeled 213o.25 low, the abc rally pattern could conceivably evolve into a 'counterintuitive' buying set-up. If the anticipated rally does happen and comes from the existing point 'c' low at 2132.00, it would have the potential to reach 2146.26, or 2163.25 at a maximum. The latter number can be found by sliding the point 'a' low down to 2113.25. As always, any HP level can be used to effect a 'mechanical' buy, provided you know what you're doing. If you don't, you need only ask in the chat room, since this vehicle has been getting plenty of knowledgeable attention lately from Pivoteers who know their stuff and who are only too willing to help.  A caveat to permabears: If too many traders share my wishful opinion that new all-time highs are unlikely, a new all-time high is exactly what Mr Market is about to deliver. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 8:32 a.m.): DaBoyz had to take the futures down to 2126.50 overnight to dry up sellers. The subsequent, obligatory goosing has tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal for the pattern shown, but if you plan to use it I'd suggest a camouflage entry only. Let's see if these slimeballs can punch through the midpoint pivot. 9:36 note:  DaBoyz are taking on

The futures were headed most immediately to the 2107.75 target shown, having failed to muster their customary short-squeeze rally in the final hour of the session. The polymath chimps at the control panels tried their darndest to promote a bounce off Tuesday's low, but this too failed -- badly, since the low they used was a tick beneath the day-earlier low. This would have stopped out many bulls just ahead of the bounce. While that should have lightened the load, giving the reversal more pop, buyers -- even with the help of short-covering bears -- achieved only a meager 7.50 points of upside before succumbing to gravity. This show of weakness is sufficient to suggest that the minor Hidden Pivot support at 2107.75 (see inset) is unlikely to hold , even if if provides a scalp-able bounce. The bigger picture, proffered here for the last few days, still points toward a 2073.50 target. Most immediately, when the 2114.75 midpoint support of this pattern gives way, the futures will be on their way to a minimum 2094.13, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support.  Both that number and 2114.75 can be used to set up 'mechanical' shorts, provided you're familiar with the tactic._______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 7:47 a.m. EDT): The 2107.75 Hidden Pivot caught the exact low of a so-far 15-point bounce that could have produced a profit of as much as $760 per contract for anyone who used the target to get long. The rally is bullishly impulsive on the 15-minute chart (although not yet on the hourly; that would require a print at 2130.25), and that's where you should find your trades for the time being if you want to ride this horse without sticking your neck out too far. As implied above, the move is most probably a bull trap.

Today's price action generated a distinctive pattern on the intraday charts with the potential to tell us whether the powerful selling we've see in recent days might be the beginning of a bear market. Notice how this morning's follow-through to Friday's steep plunge stopped almost precisely at the red line around mid-session. The line is a key 'Hidden Pivot' support at 2114.75, and if it were to be breached decisively -- meaning by about six or seven points -- that would strongly imply more downside is coming to at least 2073.50, the 'D' target of the pattern. Alternatively, if the futures were to reverse upward now and surpass even minor peaks created by the downtrend, that would imply bulls are regaining their footing. Ironically, it would be bears goaded into short-covering who would be doing the bulls' heavy lifting. As for their motivation for such urgent buying, it would come from the terrifying sight of a rally shredding even small pockets of supply. We won't presume to know how things will turn out on Tuesday, but in any event, holding above 2114.75 will be critical. Most bearish of all would be a continuation of the downtrend and an easy penetration of the 2073.50 support.

I had said that any rally from Friday's bombed-out low would be a short sale. Well, here we are, 40 points off the bottom, but not exactly looking to jump in the path of a full-blown bear panic. My gut feeling is that a tradable pullback from somewhere shy of new record highs still awaits. Indeed, the 15-minute chart suggests that the pullback will come from 2163.50 exactly (A=2110.50 on 9/12 at 9:45 a.m. EDT; B=2143.50 at 1:30 p.m.) But unless you are looking for excitement, I'd plan on monitoring the pattern shown, since a bounce from p (as yet undetermined) would imply bulls are ready to resume their dominance following Friday's scare.  In the meantime, night owls who are comfortable with the tactic can use the 15-minute pattern noted above to effect a 'mechanical' buy from any of the three Hidden Pivot levels -- x=2138.75; p=2147.00; or p2=2155.25._______ UPDATE (September 13, 9:40 a.m. EDT):  After falling hard overnight, the futures have tripped a theoretical short from 2135.38 this morning. The 'undetermined' Hidden Pivot midpoint-to-watch I alluded to above is 2114.75. That is my minimum downside projection at the moment, and a bounce from it is crucial if bulls are going to avert a second-wave selloff down to as low as 2073.50. Alternatively, Monday's vicious short-squeeze rally would get second wind if the futures reverse this morning and surpass 2147.00. ______UPDATE (2:32 p.m.): Is the 2.50-point overshoot of the 2114.75 target given in my tout update five hours ago (see above) sufficient for us to infer that the 2073.50 'D' target is in play? Not quite, especially since there were multiple possibilities for the point 'A' high of the pattern. Give me a print at 2019 or so, though, and I'd rate D no worse than an even-odds bet to

Friday's plunge did significant technical damage to the E-Mini S&P's daily chart. The last time this occurred was ostensibly due to Brexit hysteria and all of the scare-mongering by one-worlders that attended the vote. This time, however, stocks fell for no apparent reason, and that should be worrisome for bulls, since it suggests that cyclical forces are at work that could spell doom for a bull market currently in its 90th month.  As you can see in the chart (inset), the steep selloff exceeded no fewer than five 'external' lows, two of them major, without an upward correction. This implies there is very considerable power driving the selling and that it is likely to continue following whatever upward correction awaits.  If the bounce occurs from somewhere above the 2057.50 low labeled in the chart, it could conceivably generate a 'counterintuitive' buy signal that day- and swing-traders could use. However, we'll need to monitor the bounce closely on the lesser charts, since a failure to push past even a minor 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' resistance would be warning that the larger downtrend is still in effect.

The futures have become so perfectly predictable that a tone change in the days ahead seems all but assured. Thursday's price action replicated the forecast sent out the night before almost exactly: a marginal new high overnight, followed by weak selling early in the regular session, then a feeble rally into the close. The 2167.00 target shown (see inset)  can be bottom-fished with a 2167.25 bid and a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. The trade will likely work best for night owls, especially if the target is reached in the early evening. ______ UPDATE (September 9, 10:07 a.m. EDT):  How delightful! The futures are experiencing a rare selloff this morning, having traded as low as 2150.50.  Although they crushed the 2167.00 Hidden Pivot support where I'd suggested that you try bottom-fishing, it took them three hours to do so. They rallied to 2169.50, the 'secondary pivot, over that time, so scalpers could have come away with a small profit before bulls finally gave up the ghost.

DaBoyz have returned from the Hamptons, only to hit the ground crawling. With today's dirge, they've succeeded in extending the summer snoozefest yet one more day. Doubtless, they are waiting for some momentous announcement about imminent tightening from the Fed. Even if the announcement doesn't come, the hacks who report the news seem to have bought into the rate-hike scenario wholeheartedly and are eagerly complicit in Yellen's embarrassing attempts to 'manage' our expectations. None of this changes the ostensibly bullish picture of the E-Mini S&Ps' daily chart. I say 'ostensibly' because the slope of the rally toward a 2299.00 target is so subtle that it could take another eight months to get there if the pace doesn't pick up. Although a serious correction is long overdue, there is nothing in the chart to suggest the target will not be reached. The August 2 pullback to the red line provided a perfect 'mechanical' buying opportunity that never challenged bulls even slightly, and the 2217.31 'secondary pivot' looks, if not quite like a lock-up, then at least no worse than an even-odds bet to be reached. More immediately, traders can use this pattern on the 15-minute chart to get long overnight with just three ticks of theoretical risk: a=2180.00 (9/7 at 10:45 a.m. EDT); b=2170.50; c=2178.75 (4:00 p.m.). Assuming point 'c' has not been exceeded, you should bid a tick above p=2174.00, stop 2173.50. You'll be on your own if this one fills, but the three-tick initial stop-loss implies a partial-profit-taking opportunity at 2175.75.

Friday's modest rally, fueled by meaningless non-farm payroll data, was bound for 2191.25 (see inset) when the bell rang. This target roughly coincides with an important midpoint resistance at 2189.25 associated with a larger pattern that projects to as high as 2236.75 (60-minute, A=2082.00 on 7/7). That implies double stopping power near 2190, and any rally that exceeds this number is to be presumed backed by considerable buying power.  Still more bullish would be a two-day close above 2189.25, an occurrence that would make a further push to 2236.75 an odds-on bet. I'll switch to the relevant chart when appropriate, but your trading bias for the time being should be bullish. _______ UPDATE (September 7, 4:55 p.m. EDT): No change. The minor, 2191.25 target given above is not only still viable, the odds have increased that it will mark a top of at least short-term importance that could be precisely tradable. This is implied by Tuesday's stall a half-tick from the 2186.38 'secondary' pivot shown in the chart. If you've been long for the ride north, use your profits to cushion a generous stop-loss when you reverse the position at the target. Remember, any minor rally target could mark an important top, and that's why opportunities like this one should be exploited aggressively, albeit with entry risk very tightly controlled.