E-Mini S&P

Friday's selloff created a strongly bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. Although the obligatory short-covering rally in the final hour recouped most of the losses, the burden of proof will be on bulls as the week begins. That's because the intraday low on Friday overshot a clear Hidden Pivot support (see inset) at 2047.75 -- usually an indication of more weakness to come.  Alternatively, it would take a push above 2076.00, Friday's high, to prevent some of the recent peaks from becoming collectively a top of at least short-term importance.

Wild as the swings were on Thursday, they didn't alter the 2061.25 correction target disseminated last night via an update to the previous tout. The pattern that produced the target could have been useful to anyone keen on bottom-fishing, since the overnight low, as well as the wackiest bounce of the day, came from within less than a point of its 2069.50 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support. I expect the  last remaining target, 2061.25, to display similar precision. Look for a tradable low there, or possibly even an overnight or intraday bottom. ______ UPDATE (9:37 a.m., from my post in the chat room): The futures are bouncing off p=2063.75 from the 5-min chart (a=2089.75), but the pivot looks to have been sufficiently bruised to suggest the p2=2057.63 is coming -- and maybe even d=2051.50. These targets will remain valid unless 2076.00 is exceeded to the upside.

I'll wait till I hear from subscribers who got long 'mechanically' at p=2082.75 before I establish a tracking position.  In the meantime, the futures were bogged down as last week ended, notwithstanding the fact that a long initiated at p was slightly profitable at the close. For now, if you got on board, use a stop-loss at 2074.75, just beneath Friday's low. The heightened precaution is warranted for two reasons: 1) the futures failed to push decisively above p after the mechanical trade was triggered on Friday; and 2) last week's highs occurred only slightly above a rally target at 2101.75 that we'd been using for several weeks. I am nevertheless offering a higher projection at 2139.50 for one reason: Thursday's 2105.25 peak  exceeded by a single tick the previous all-time high recorded last July. That effectively refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, making any pullback from here corrective and buy-able, at least in theory. Obviously, I am at pains to give the all-clear for bulls, since the futures have been struggling lately for every inch of their gains. Under the circumstances, we shouldn't try to forecast too far ahead. Stick with the intraday charts for now, and pay particularly attention to price action at midpoint pivots in both directions. To the degree they are exceeded, and assuming 'duels' do not develop, that should keep us apprised of the primary trend. _______ UPDATE (April 25, 11:27 p.m. ET):  Rally targets at 2111.13 and thence 2139.50 still obtain, but price action has been too choppy for a buy-and-hold strategy. No subscribers reported using a 'mechanical' entry to get long as I'd suggested, but a buy at 2082.75 triggered on Thursday (or Friday) would have required a 2063.75 stop-loss and a 2139.50 target.  Looking just ahead, a mechanical trade would

The futures notched a new record high on Wednesday, a feat that went largely unnoticed because the S&P 500 cash index fell well shy of the old mark from last July. Although I've been warning bears for weeks to get out of the way, there's no percentage in going out on a limb right now with predictions of fabulous new highs, or perhaps more logically, a stunning collapse. We're in uncharted water, which paradoxically will make it easier to project potentially tradable Hidden Pivot targets. That's because there are no previous highs to the left on the ES charts to draw the attention of other traders and technicians. Accordingly, subscribers should use p, p2 and D (see inset) to place their bets. In a plausible sequence, that might mean: 1) getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to p; 2) getting long with 'camouflage' at current levels for a push to p2 or D; 3) getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to p2 after it has been decisively exceeded; and/or 4) exiting at D and getting short there with a tight stop. As always, the best place to seek guidance in real time will be in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (April 22, 12:59 a.m. ET):  If you used option #1 to get long, deploy a 2063.75 stop-loss and hold the position using a price objective of  2139.50. If you have more than one contract, take a partial profit at p=2111.00.

The futures failed to surpass a 2090.00 resistance I'd flagged in the chat-room, topping a single tick below it at 2089.75. The resistance is not a Hidden Pivot, but rather a 'structural' impediment tied to an important peak at that price back in December. I say important because it is one of only three peaks remaining that lie between current levels and new all-time highs. The peaks are very closely spaced, with the uppermost at 2105.00, so it wouldn't take much of a rally to power this vehicle into the record book. As likely as this seems, we should shun the guesswork and simply trade whatever 'mechanical' opportunities come our way in the form of impulse legs. These can occur on charts of any time frame, allowing us to cut theoretical entry risk down to mere ticks in either direction.  Stay tuned to the chat room if you want witness the process in real time. _______ UPDATE (April 19, 7:56 p.m. ET): The futures spasmed to a new recovery high at 2098.50, leaving the analysis above unaffected.

Friday's sloppy price action left intact a high from the previous day that precisely matched a long-term trendline. Still unachieved is a Hidden Pivot target at 2085.25 that lies a millimeter above the trendline. If the futures should break out to begin the week, the next spot where we might look for tradable resistance is at 2101.75, a Hidden Pivot of greater importance than the one at 2085.25.  Although the nervousness of traders is likely to be at a fever pitch this week, my advice is to use the technical tools at our disposal to visualize price action in its simplest terms -- i.e., as bullish or bearish impulse legs on charts of different time frames. That's what we'll be doing in the chat room, so if you're looking for tradable ideas in real time, and for a way to reduce entry risk to a bare minimum, then by all means join us. _______ UPDATE (9:42 p.m. ET): Cartel talks to suppress oil output have very predictably failed, sending the E-Mini S&Ps 15 points lower on the opening Sunday night.  Let's get one thing out of the way now, so that we don't have to waste time debating whether falling oil output can somehow overtake falling global demand with sufficient momentum to cause oil prices to rise. This idiotic notion is just the pipe dream of all who are praying desperately for a little inflation, presumably because it would help bail out a banking system hopelessly mired in bad energy loans. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, guys, but any rally in crude is just a dead-cat bounce. As for the E-Mini S&Ps, we'll pass up a 'mechanical' buying opportunity down at x=2040.81 (the green line) and simply observe. If the futures sink below C=2026.00 without having achieved

Thursday's rally fell 3.50 points shy of our 2085.25 target, providing reason for caution. In practice, that means continuing to use 2085.25 to manage the risk of any bullish trades while simultaneously monitoring the very lesser charts for bearish impulse legs that could signal the beginning of an important trend change. As I noted here earlier, 2085.25 has the potential to mark an important top. However, there can be no guarantees that it will be reached. There is another potentially important resistance discussed here earlier at 2101.75 that is subject to the same caveat.  Notice as well that the top of Thursday rally coincided precisely with a trendline we've been watching for several weeks. Unquestionably, the futures are at a very crucial level. As always, the best way to glean tradable information from nervous price action will be to view the ups and downs in terms of the impulse legs they generate on the lesser charts. Do this diligently and you will never, ever miss an important turn.

Although stocks looked ponderous on Thursday, the hourly chart for this vehicle remains persuasively bullish. The implied run-up to 2101.75 seems likely to generate a tradable top, possibly an important one. Of more immediate concern is whether the futures will get there at all or simply roll over in bearish fashion from these levels.  Regardless, we'll treat any trading opportunities that arise disinterestedly, implying a possible 'mechanical' buy at p2=2079.38 if the futures exceed that Hidden Pivot decisively and then pull back to it. Please note that the chart shown would become impulsively bearish if the futures should fall to 2068.25 today.

The 2078.00 rally target provided here yesterday came within a single point of nailing the intraday high of a 22-point surge. As implied earlier, the move would need to push decisively past the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, before we can confidently assume that significantly higher prices impend. More immediately, there is one last hidden resistance, 2085.25, to impede the upward flow. It can be used as a minimum upside objective as well. Night owls looking to get long can do so via a 'mechanical' bid at 2070.44, the secondary pivot, stop 2065.50. If 2085.25 is subsequently achieved, at least 25% of the original position should be held for bigger things.