E-Mini S&P

The 2047.25 rally target shown in the chart (inset) doesn't square precisely with a comparable target that I've furnished for DIA, but it should be close enough to attempting shorting there with risk under very tight control. The ABC rally pattern has worked quite well so far, most recently by way of a p2 pivot at 2024.94 that nailed the intraday high within a single point. It also provided an easy 'mechanical' entry for longs at the 2002.63 midpoint Hidden Pivot. There are two possible trades remaining here: a mechanical buy on a pullback to p2 after it has been exceeded by perhaps 6 or 7 points for a few bars; and a short/exit at 2047.25. As always, you can step up your position size and widen the stop-loss on the short if you've been long on the way up. _______ UPDATE (3:00 a.m.): See the chat room discussion starting at 2:53 a.m. for my thoughts on an alternative target at 2045.50. _______ UPDATE (March 17, 6:41 p.m.): No change, since Thursday's rally, masterfully staged by DaBoyz off a very low-volume bottom overnight, continued to track the Hidden Pivot levels shown in the chart (see inset). If you are long if and when the futures reach the alternative target at 2045.50, short there with a stop-loss at 2048.25 (or perhaps somewhat higher, depending on your appetite for risk). I will update if the futures appear to be settling at the target toward the end of the day, since that would increase the risk of the trade.

The bullish pattern shown points to 2076.25, a target subject to crucial resistance at the secondary pivot, 2035.13.  Regarding its legitimacy and authority, the pattern has two important things going for it: 1) its AB 'booster-stage' rally surpassed the required internal and external peaks, which I've labeled; and 2) the 1994.00 midpoint pivot has picked up two precise hits -- first as resistance, then as support. Notice that if the higher target were to be hit, the rally would still fall shy of the record 2095.75 achieved last November. You can bet bulls and bears would skirmish up there, and that the former would not likely give up until they'd achieved at least a marginal new record high. By then, bears' patience, if not to say their trading capital, would be completely depleted. At that point only bulls would still have something to lose, and that's the argument for at least a nominal move above last year's peaks before DaBoyz pull the plug. In the meantime, swing traders should look for a 'mechanical' buying opportunity on a pullback to p that meets our criteria for this type of entry. Since the implied stop-loss would be at 1980.25 (predicated on ride to at least p2), I'd suggest crafting a more cautious entry trigger using 'camouflage'.  This would entail using the entry trigger on an ABC pattern of sub-5 minute degree once the 'mechanical' buy signal has taken effect.

Yesterday's constipated price action will not have significantly diminished the odds of the 2026.75 rally target (see inset) being achieved. Moreover, p2=2009.56 would become a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2003.75, if it's exceeded by at least five points for three consecutive bars on the hourly chart (and assuming there's some white space beneath those bars). If 2026.75 is easily exceeded, that would presage a further rally to as high as 2042.50, a target derived from using the somewhat lower 'A' at 1913.50.  Alternatively, bears would register a pulse if the futures were to fall below 1995.00 in the early going without having exceeded 2015.00 overnight.

Much as I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings for those of you who have been oh-so-eager to get short -- or perhaps to stay short -- this hoax is headed higher.  Long-time subscribers will have noticed by now that it's no great trick using the Hidden Pivot Method to nail the E-Mini's swing highs and lows within a few ticks each and every day, all day long. What's difficult sometimes is trading the moves. On Thursday, with the futures falling hard on their way to a 1958.00 low, I reminded you that a rally target at 2016.00 was still viable. The next day, I suggested leveraging that target by getting long 'counterintuitively' if the June contract hit 1969.00.  It did, around 2:30 in the afternoon, and anyone who heeded my advice never looked back. That trade proved to be the relatively easy one of the day, since it precisely achieved its 2001.75 target (albeit at 3:15 a.m.) But for those not already aboard, getting a piece of the presumptive next phase of the rally to 2016.00 was like enduring the Chinese water torture. Short-covering ratcheted the futures, one millimeter at a time, toward the 2016.00 target, which I had flagged as a juicy spot to get short. By day's end, however, after rallying 33 points from the previous day's criminally engineered low, the futures had gone no higher than 2012.75. Under the circumstances, it was not possible to get short using my target. Nor should any of you have wanted to, since the intraday high was about to occur minutes ahead of the final bell -- which is to say, ahead of whatever potentially world-rattling news might develop over the weekend. (Note: All bets are off if this does in fact happen.) Which bring us to my

Short covering Thursday night has pushed this hoax to within an inch of the wack-o intraday high at 2001.00 that was recorded, of course, before the opening bell.  Subscribers who took to heart my 13:39 post in the chat room and boarded the rally 'counterintuitively' at 1969.00 could have caught a so-far 30-point ride worth as much as $1500 per contract. (Because only one subscriber reported having done so, however, I am not establishing a tracking position.)  Since the pattern that provided the entry signal worked so well, I'd suggest using it to get a handle on the futures tonight and Friday morning. In practical terms, that could have meant using p2=1990.81 to initiate a 'mechanical' long, provided you knew what you were doing. If the trade has taken you profitably to the 2001.75 target,  keep in mind that the 2016.00 target of a larger pattern identified here earlier is still viable. You should short there aggressively with a tight stop if you've made some bucks on the way up.

The bullish pattern shown suggests that the rally from mid-February's low is close to exhaustion, but probably not before it hits the 2017.25 target. Moreover, because the futures have poked decisively above the p2 secondary pivot at 1982.25, they would become a 'mechanical' buy, at least in theory, on a pullback to p=1947.25, stop 1923.75. A similar opportunity to get long via a 1982.25 bid, stop 1970.50, would materialize if that pivot were to be exceeded for a few bars by at least 12 points. To reduce entry risk by as much as 95%, consider using 'camouflage'. This would entail trading an ABC pattern of much small degree if and when a 'mechanical' entry has been signaled at either the red or the pink line. ______ UPDATE (10:15 p.m.): DaSleazeballs have maneuvered the futures a bit higher tonight, bringing into sharp focus a rally pattern with a very shortable target just two ticks above the so-far high.  The target lies at 1986.75, versus an actual high at 1986.25. Here are the coordinates on the 10-minute chart, so that you can see what bulls are up against: A=1966.50 (3/8 at 4:00 p.m.); B=1984.50 (3/9 at 7:20 a.m.); and C=1968.75. _______ UPDATE (8:50 a.m.): Another six weeks of nuclear winter for bears? DaBoyz blew through the 1986.75 target at dawn, apparently intending on the 2016.00 target of a larger pattern (30 minute, A=1796.00 on 2/11; B=1934.75). That is my minimum projection for the very near-term. Short there only if you've been long for a least a part of the ride up.  (Note: This target and the original one at 2017.25 are one and the same; the earlier one was based on an erroneous Tradestation coordinate.)

Bears held an edge yesterday, but not much of one. After tripping a signal to get short in the early going, the futures spasmed their way lower for six hours without achieving the modest 1963.90 target shown. Without the help of horrific news, shorts are unlikely to have an easier time of it on Wednesday. The institutionally rigged high-fliers such as Amazon and Google held their own on Tuesday as the broad averages declined, suggesting they could provide resilience for at least another day or two until buyers find traction. Traders, particularly night owls, should look to bottom-fish at 1963.90 with the tightest of stops.  If this Hidden Pivot support gives way easily, however, bears should take encouragement, since it would be a sign of more weakness to come.

The effort required to barely sustain altitude on Monday was telling. Is it possible this hoax is about to sink without even having achieved the modest 2016.00 target shown? It certainly feels like it -- feels, at least, like the futures may have to come all the way down to p=1946.63 before bulls can get traction. As you may have surmised, I am suggesting that you pass up the ostensible 'mechanical' buying opportunity at 1981.31, because the futures look too punk to traverse the 35-point gap to 2016.00 straightaway.  Instead, I'll recommend jumping on a short if the hypothetical pattern I've sketched at the rightmost edge of the chart pans out as envisioned.

Shifting to the June contract, a 2016.00 rally target comes into sharp focus. This is equivalent to the 2025.50 target I flagged last week for the March futures. The rally pattern itself is quite clear and compelling, since both p and p2 picked up some precise hits last week. Traders can use p2=1981.31, stop 1969.75, to get long 'mechanically'. However, you should attempt this only if you fully understand how 'mechanical' set-ups work, and only if Sunday night's opening is more or less normal (as opposed to driven by some disconcerting headline).  If the long position pans out and you make a few bucks on the way to 2016.00, you can reverse the position and get short there aggressively, since the target, a Hidden Pivot, looks like a high-odds place for a tradable top, even if it doesn't turn out to be THE top.  Incidentally, the 200-DMA for the S&P 500 cash index comes in around 2023 right now. That would roughly coincide with the 2016.00 target for this vehicle.