E-Mini S&P

Although yesterday's turbulence turned Friday's breezy, precise downtrend into an untradable jitterbug, the 2044.50 target still obtains.  It is also a promising place to try bottom-fishing, with a stop-loss as tight as 2043.75.  You'll be on your own if the order fills, but please note that any slippage below the stop-loss would indicate more weakness to come.

Index futures were trading only moderately lower Sunday night on reports that the holiday weekend was a disaster for retailers. We should assume that the stock market's weakness is only a hint of things to come on Monday, since the news will make it much harder for the fraudsters on Wall Street to pretend there's an economic recovery going on. The simple fact is that consumers have borrowed themselves comatose to make ends meet.  Night owls looking to trade the move should use the Hidden Pivots shown to guide them.  They lie, respectively, at 2056.00 and 2049.75. If the first is easily breached, assume the second will be reached. ______ UPDATE (9:36 a.m.): The futures have bounced from the exact middle of the range noted above -- a rather unusual occurrence, although not indicative of any great strength or resilience.

The 2115.50 target identified here earlier is a logical minimum objective for now, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be reached. In any event, we'll need to monitor the lesser charts for more finely-nuanced signs of continuing strength -- or perhaps incipient weakness. If the 2064.25 high endures overnight, look for any downtrend to find support at or near the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2055.50. We shouldn't attempt to bottom-fish there aggressively, however, since it coincides with 'structural' support that will be on other traders' radar.  Ditto for the D target at 2046.75, although either -- especially the second -- could yield the kind of subtle abc reversal that we look for to initiate risk-averse entries. _______ UPDATE (10:23 p.m. EST): Night owls should check out the new chart, since I've sketched out a potentially tradable scenario. The bigger picture, detailed above, remains unchanged. _______ UPDATE (November 25, 9:41 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

With a week of tedious chop drawing to a close, the futures look torqued for another thrust, although not a full-blown wilding spree, at the bell on Thursday. Although they've yet to push past a 2055.25 target that I'd drum-rolled here a couple of weeks ago, the fact that they've been head-butting this Hidden Pivot since Tuesday without giving up much ground on pullbacks suggests buyers are raring to go. We shall see.  Easy progress above yesterday's high would indicate a push at least to the 2064.00 target shown. This would presumably be a downpayment on a more significant target at 2115.50 flagged here earlier.  Night owls will likely have the best chance to get aboard with relatively little risk, particularly if they look for their entry opportunities in the form of ABC rally patterns on charts of 15-minute degree or less.

During yesterday's impromptu session, I suggested shorting this vehicle at day's end, but only to those who were prepared to monitor the position overnight. The 2055.25 target was effectively reached with an intraday high at 2054.00. For all we know, this could be the ultimate top of the bull market begun in March 2009. It's equally possible, of course, that the futures could be bounding blithely higher by the time you read this.  Were that to occur, I'd have to infer that the 2115.50 target shown is in play, implying yet another thousand points of upside for the Dow Industrials.  This seems incredible to me, given that corporate earnings have begun to falter. Permabulls have been arguing for years that per-share earnings growth has justified the runaway bull, even if a significant piece of this growth has been bought by companies shrinking their floats via stock buybacks. In any case, and most immediately, if the moderate weakness in evidence Monday night starts to snowball, we'll look for a way to get short Tuesday on-the-fly. Stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (11:04 a.m.): Since I have reports from traders who got short yesterday, I am advising covering half of the position at current  levels,  tying what remains to a 2049.75 stop-loss. For purposes of tracking guidance, I will assume a short position of two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2068.00. _______ UPDATE (9:06 p.m.): Based on my instructions, traders should have exited on the spike to 2050.50 that occurred with two hours left in the session. The theoretical profit on the position would have been around $1750.  If you stayed short, an 'impulsive' stop-loss for today would imply bailing out only if the futures surpass Tuesday's record-high 2054.00.

A modest, 2055.25 target that was put in play two weeks ago remains viable, even if progress toward it has mimicked that of a turtle trying to reach the other side of a two-lane highway. I won't proffer any trading strategies for Monday night, since the futures have been oh-so-coy in courting the various 'levels' associated with the target. Sunday night they came down to the precise 2025.25 midpoint pivot before embarking on a feeble, 15-point rally that moved too slowly to be tradable.  One of these nights the futures will simply pop to 2055.25, and that will be that. Trading opportunities from both the long and short side are implied, but I'll leave it to those of you with more patience than I to seize the moment.

One step up, two steps back. At that rate, the 2055.25 rally target will never be reached. Actually, yesterday's gratuitous swoon did not alter the target or its viability, even if it may have reduced the odds of getting there by an infinitesimally small amount. To believe otherwise is to imply that the bull market begun in March 2009 is over. Maybe, but we're not betting on it. The futures are in fact a bull trade from these levels, since there's 22 points of implied upside profit potential -- worth as much as $1100 per contract -- to any trader nimble enough to a catch a ride. As usual, getting aboard will be easier at night than during the regular session, when this vehicle tends to be overtraded to death. To initiate the trade I'll suggest bidding a tick above the 2029.75 midpoint support shown, stop 2029.00. That's the lazy way to do it, but if you want to shave another tick or two of theoretical risk from this gambit, or if you plan on doing some size, you could try a 'camouflage' entry on a chart of lesser degree.  If you have a bit of Hidden Pivot knowledge but are uncertain about how to do this, check the chart that accompanies yesterday's Gold tout in the archive.

The futures obviously have our longstanding rally target at 2037.50 on their tiny, evil brain, since they’ve been diddling this Hidden Pivot resistance for nearly a week. The S&Ps could plunge at any moment, of course, tired of the game. But the tedious price action feels more like accumulation to me, and so I’ll stick with the 2055.25 target shown.  It looks too, too pretty not to work -- meaning, in theory, that: 1) it WILL be reached (if you’re keen on getting long, don't be afraid); and 2) it looks very likely to produce a precisely short-able top. Take a free trial subscription that will allow you to access not only the touts, bulletins, updates and impromptu trading webinars during market hours, but a 24/7 chat room that draws veteran traders from around the world.

The 2055.25 target flagged here earlier is looking more and more compelling, notwithstanding the fact that it is of lesser degree than the one at 2037.50 that the futures have been diddling for the last two days. That implies a 25-point ride from here -- one that beckons night owls who have time on their hands and a little guts. The little ABC pattern at the rightmost edge of this chart is the one you should use to get aboard, since it has already tripped an entry signal at  2033.00 that projects to 2039.75. The stall at p=2035.25 is a concern, but if DaSleazeballs are DaSleazeballs I think they are, They are going to run this sucker up in the wee hours.  The small pattern won't make you rich if you catch a ride, but that's not the point of it; the payoff is in the potential finishing stroke to 2055. _______ UPDATE (12:29 a.m. EST): The trade worked perfectly, the futures having pushed up to 2039.00, three ticks from the target. If you got long, use a break-even stop and go for extra bases -- i.e., 2055.25 -- with what remains. _______ UPDATE (8:39 a.m.): The futures went nowhere overnight, presumably stymied by the 2037.50 pivot. Yesterday's incredibly sluggish action could have been attributed to the Monday factor. But two days in a row?  That's creepy. The most logical explanation I can think of is that every trader on earth was long straddles, or something like straddles, over the weekend.  The "unwind" would of course imply a state of coma for volatility, at least until each and every buyer of every put/call has had the marrow sucked from his bones. Owning straddles is like paying life insurance companies extra for an over/under bet on when you'll die. _______ UPDATE