E-Mini S&P

The 2037.50 rally target we've been using comes from the long-term charts, but the 'hourly' provides an alternative at 2055.25 that would become an odds-on bet if the lower number is exceeded by more than a few ticks.  Both numbers should evince tradable stopping power, but you should attempt to exploit this opportunity only if you've made a few bucks on the way up.  Should you find yourself in this enviable position, don't hesitate to take a small short position home over the weekend. The mere fact of Friday rallies being too, too scary to short is reason enough to try it anyway, at least in a small way.

The 2037.50 target displayed here earlier is persuasive -- not only for purposes of getting long for an implied 20-point ride worth as much as $1000 per contract, but for reversing the position and going short at the target. My hunch is that buying one's way aboard will be nerve-racking in any event, since the rally that began Wednesday's session used up the one fetching prior peak we might have used to craft a usable, minor ABC entry pattern.  My suggestion for getting long nonetheless is to wait for a pullback like the one shown.  At that point, bulls will be mildly discouraged, and even we would be looking to get short. Instead, and as long as there's a low at least a tick above A=1195.25, you should buy-stop your way aboard if the rally from that low goes at least 6.50 points. Be sure to take profits on half the position if the rally continues for another 6.50 points. After that, you can swing for the fences.

Yesterday's traipsing around generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but if the futures move lower to complete the pattern Tuesday night, look for signs of support at p=1999.50; or if not there, at 1990.25. The lower Hidden Pivot looks appealing for bottom-fishing -- a gambit which would require a stop-loss of at least three ticks.  As always, an easy move through either support would imply still lower prices ahead.

An unfulfilled target at 2037.50 beckons just above Monday's high, but we should be careful about assuming it will be reached merely because the futures are bobbing around in record territory.  From a trading standpoint, you can take either side of the bet right now. Night owls will likely have the first opportunity, positioning from the long side by using the 2001.75 target shown.  If it is exceeded by more than a point, however, that would indicate sufficient weakness over the near term to even the odds between a long or short bet on the next trade. In any case, stick with the 15-minute chart for trade set-ups, since it's offered plenty of clarity lately as well as price patterns that have done what they ought.  Please note that a rally exceeding 2013.25 would be quite bullish short-term if the futures have not fallen first to at least 2002.25.

After a ferocious, short-squeeze rally of 10% from mid-October's lows, the futures show no sign of slowing down. Yesterday they exceeded yet another peak on the daily chart, stretching their still-uncorrected winning streak to ten days. We can use the 2037.50 Hidden Pivot target shown as a minimum upside objective for the near term, since, as far as I'm concerned, it is all but a foregone  conclusion that it will be achieved. We can also plan on getting short at the target, with profits banked on the way up providing a generous cushion against the risk of intercepting the rally.

Yesterday's short-squeeze on news of 'Chinese QE' was strongly impulsive, even if a surge to new all-time highs is not quite a done deal. Notice on the hourly chart (inset) that the future surpassed an internal peak and two externals without taking a breather. This is the kind of feisty price action that often begets a follow-through rally of equal or even greater strength. Shorts will be edgier than usual, but their nervousness will work to the advantage of traders using 'camouflage' tactics to get aboard. Remember: No matter how frantic and seemingly chaotic the ups and downs, they can be reduced to their tradable rudiments when viewed, simply, as impulse legs.

The downtrending pattern shown yields three potential trading opportunities, presumably for night owls, if the 1925.00 high holds as point C: 1) play for a bounce from either p (1917.75) or 2) D (1910.75); or 3) go short on a breach of p. Keep in mind that any bullish bets will be going against a larger downtrend that could start to snowball and which we are already short two contracts (of an initial four) from, effectively, 1960.00.  If either of the supports identified in the chart gives way easily, that would add weight to the big-picture bearish case.  Note:  We'll roll our two short contracts into September, using a 1954.00 basis. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 1:47 a.m.): Friday's rally altered my parameters slightly, as shown, creating a new midpoint support ay 1918.75.  That is the exact low so far Sunday night, but if it's breached, 1907.75 will be the next stop on the way down. For the time being, our tracking position of two short contracts from a profit-adjusted 1954.00 should be tied to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart.  Currently, that would dictate an exit on a rally exceeding the 1931.75 peak shown. Keep in mind that the rally would have to be uncorrected once the peak at 1929.75 is surpassed.  _______ UPDATE (June 16, 9:48 a.m. ET): This morning's running of stops has invalidated downside targets given above. I don't see this hoax getting very far, but I'll suggest raising the stop-loss nonetheless to 1935.00. This time, the stop must be achieved by an uncorrected impulse leg on the 15-minute. _______ UPDATE (10:10 a.m.): Raising stop again to 1939.75, and it must be achieved impulsively, no corrections, on the 30-minute chart.

I staked out a long position in the chat room yesterday afternoon with a set of explicit instructions provided in real time.  Although the trade had the potential to produce a $150 profit per contract on a move to the 1946.50 target, I'm recommending that you ditch it now unless you're keen on staying up all night to monitor it.  Like all 'camouflage' trades, the purpose of this one is not to make a big score, but to establish a relatively low-risk, low-stress entry point.  This we did, taking partial profits early on with the goal of holding a small piece of the original position for a potential four-bagger.  If that holds true for this vehicle, you know where it's going. If you don't, check out my 11:24 post in the Rick's Picks Banter Room for a very important target that we'll want to short aggressively. _______ UPDATE (1:14 p.m.): Based on a report from a subscriber in the chat room, I am reinstating tracking coverage for a big-picture short that was initiated at 1954.25, two ticks off the all-time high.  Assuming two contracts remain from an initial position of four, and that their basis has been lifted to 1960.00 by partial profit-taking so far,  I'll recommend an impulse leg-based stop-loss (ILBSL) using the 60-minute chart.  At the moment, that would put the stop at 1952.00.  Keep in mind that the rally would need to be uncorrected once above 1947.75.

I'm tracking two contracts short from 1954.25 with a cost basis that has effectively been raised by partial profit-taking to 1957.00.  A 1951.00 stop-loss suggested in the chat room would have triggered an exit after-hours, as shown in the chart.  I won't presume to know at this time what subscribers actually did, but if you retained the position, please let me know and I will continue to provide tracking guidance.  For what it's worth, the A-B rally leg that triggered the stop could yield an attractive opportunity to get long via 'camouflage'. This would be 'expert play,' however, because of the futures' coy -- if not to say flaky -- behavior.  There is one more important rally target not far above where we can attempt to re-short this vehicle. Once again, I will refrain from publishing it, but its precise location will be common knowledge in the chat room.  Because it is a long-term target that has taken quite a while to reach, a stop-loss wider than our usual micro-tight, penny-ante stop is warranted.