E-Mini S&P

When the dust settled yesterday, the futures had chopped their way to the exact middle of the gratuitous range they've carved out over the last month or so.  Traders looking to chase boredom should consider flipping a coin to determine which side of the bet to take next.  However, if someone were to put a gun to my head and ask me to predict where the next significant move will go, I'd say to the 1830.25 target shown. The futures would first have to take out the 1847.25 midpoint pivot (the red line) without having first exceeded 'C' to the upside.  Were that to occur, you could bottom-fish at 1830.25 with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Alternatively, an upthrust exceeding the 1866.00 would put bulls back in charge, at least for a while and even though they might not get very far.

DaBoyz rallied the futures in the second half of yesterday's session, but I don't expect it to go much further. The downdraft overshot a 'D' target for one; and for two, it generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset). The most logical place for a head-fake to fail Tuesday morning would be at the 1855.75 midpoint pivot of the downtrending pattern. Accordingly, I'll recommend shorting near there via camouflage if an enticing opportunity unfolds. This implies the appearance of a bearish abc pattern on a chart of perhaps 3-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (10:27 a.m. EDT): The rally has shot past midpoint resistance but so far failed to surpass any external peaks on the hourly chart. That would take a  print at 1866.25, but we'll wait until it happens before we infer strength.  As has become all too typical for this vehicle, there have been virtually no 'camouflage' handholds for getting long OR short, only gratuitous spasms in both directions since the opening bell.

The futures couldn't hold onto the fleeting, short-squeeze gain they achieved on Friday's opening bar, but the intraday high still managed to surpass an 'external' peak on the hourly chart (see inset), refreshing this vehicle's bullish energy. Bulls and bears were in 'dueling' mode by day's end, however, and a clearer reckoning of sellers' strength must therefore await a second leg down. I've sketched this hypothetically (see inset) for your further guidance, but either p or D can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss if the pattern that evolves is similar to the one shown.  _______ UPDATE (9:29 a.m. EDT): The futures refused to dip to p overnight. However, I would be wary of a possible bull-trap opening, since DaScumballs haven't been able to gain much altitude overnight. Shorts seem unconcerned -- perhaps for good reason, given the parlous state of the real world, economically and geopolitically, these days. Delusion of the Week is a statistic suggesting that consumer confidence in Europe is on an upswing.

Place your bets, folks! Are the broad averages developing thrust for a rally to new record highs? Or is all their flailing around over the last three weeks a topping process meant to drive bulls and bears to distraction? I'm betting on the former, although at the rate things are going I may not get to collect until hell freezes over.  From a technical standpoint, the performance of the S&Ps lately has been about as impressive as Barack Obama's second term. Yesterday's surge narrowly failed to surpass a significant peak to the left of it, just as the rally the day before had failed. One of these days the futures are going to close above one or more of the four peaks (see inset) that have been impeding their path to the Promised Land. It is then, perhaps, that we will be able to infer that the Mother of All Bull Traps awaits, beckoning like Circe from untold heights.

It's not exactly a sign of robust health that the futures collapsed yesterday without having exceeded last Thursday's 1867.75 peak. Bulls missed that benchmark by two ticks, and although that might not seem like much, it's enough to suggest that there is not sufficient buying power, including short-covering, to push this hoax to new record highs any time soon. My inclination, at least for the moment, is to treat any rally as a shorting opportunity. Stay tuned to the chat room for precise levels based on Hidden Pivot targets.

Yesterday's rally did not surpass even a single 'external' peak, although it might easily have done so with a mere additional 1.00 point of upside. This suggests that the shorts who typically do most of the heavy lifting are pretty complacent at the moment. They may be justified, since it is not exactly bullish for stocks that the U.S. is rapidly shrinking from importance in world affairs, and that its inept president, whose experience goes no deeper than a stint as a community organizer, has become a global laughing stock. Be that as it may, it would take just a small rally to surpass the 1867.75 peak shown. That would turn the chart bullishly impulsive and greatly shorten the odds of a 70-point run-up to the 1933.50 target shown. Traders looking to leverage this scenario should see in this chart the potential for a relatively subtle 'camouflage' buying opportunity to unfold that would use the low that I've labeled 'A' as the point of departure. Please query me about this in the chat room if you're interested, since some of the details are proprietary with the Hidden Pivot Method.

DaBoyz never looked back after knee-capping widows, orphans and pensioners in the early going Sunday night. From that point forward it was up, up and awaaaayyyyy, with only a modest selloff at the opening bell designed to rape the few nervous Nellies who somehow survived the night.  By day's end, the futures had recouped almost precisely 0.618 of last week's losses. That could turn yesterday's high into a stubborn resistance, but not so stubborn that we should bet heavily that it will endure for more than a few more hours. If the futures do in fact move higher as seems likely, there are not many distinctive 'external' peaks to use for purposes of generating a 'camouflage' buy signal. I've flagged one at 1859.50 that might work, however, provided a b-c pullback comes from just above it.

This week's commentary raises the prospect of Ukraine rising to the top of Wall Street's worry list at some point, assuming the Street is even capable of worrying about much of anything other than whatever worthless drivel emanates from the Fed.  As you can see in the chart, however, the worrying had not begun as of early Monday morning. Although DaBoyz pulled their bids on the opening bar Sunday night, sending this vehicle 10 points lower, short-covering has pushed it back up to unchanged. If you are inclined to get your bearish hopes up nonetheless, note that the low of Sunday night's swoon was just a few ticks shy of exceeding a second 'external' low on the daily chart.  This could still happen before the day is over, and if it does it would increase the odds  that the selloff begun six days ago from 1887.50 is the start of a major decline.

Recent price action has served up such unappetizing slop for trading that I thought it might be useful to trot out the weekly chart as a reminder of our high-confidence rally target at 1945.00. Notice that the target's sibling midpoint pivot at 1838.50 was left choking on dust after a stall there for two consecutive weekly bars. This suggests that 1945.00 is all but certain to be reached, notwithstanding the hectoring petulance of this little devil's daily war dance.  A pullback to the red line should be regarded as a buying opportunity, although I'd suggest using the 'camouflage technique' to reduce theoretical risk if it happens. _______ UPDATE (1:20 p.m. EDT): Today's selloff is unimpressive so far, even on the hourly chart (which is bearishly impulsive). However, the selling would get our attention if ES continues lower, exceeding Feb 20's 1817.25 bottom  That would generate a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart.  For now, though, we'll wait and see what kind of follow-through (i.e., c-d leg) today's downdraft brings.