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Turning cautious is not necessarily turning bearish, although there will always be the question of whether a major correction looms whenever the futures grow heavy for a few weeks, as they indeed have. My strong feeling is that no particularly punitive swoon awaits, even if Comex Gold continues to demonstrate that it is in no great hurry to push up to minor rally targets, let alone major ones in the vicinity of 1300.  Most immediately, and from a technical standpoint, August Gold will need to avoid falling to 1191.00, the target of the pattern shown, in order to buck up buyers. That is a 'd' target, and it would be preferable if any decline today not exceed its sibling midpoint at 1200.70.  We'll be watching closely in any case and will adjust our numbers if the point 'C' changes. (See also: our recent gold coverage.) _______ UPDATE:  Nice rally off an 1198.10 low today, but the futures still need to eke out three more ticks to nail it for the bulls.  As things stand, they have failed by that margin to surpass a 1221.90 peak made yesterday on the way down. This means the rally is not yet impulsive on the hourly chart, and that fact should leave us mildly skeptical.

An ostensibly "easy" rally target at 1236.20 has been so long in coming that it's time to put it aside and focus on the corrections, just in case this mild weakness is about to turn into something worse. A major midpoint pivot at 1214.90 is still the key support to watch, although its breach, especially by just a few points or less, would not be significant.  If the futures do fall, look for a minor HP support at 1219.75 to turn them around; otherwise, more weakness down to at least 1212.80 (or perhaps 1211.10) would become likely.

The 1236.20 target flagged here yesterday is still the best short-term rally target we've got, although some more-ambitious Hidden Pivots also broached here recently will be in play just as soon as buyers turn serious, as they predictably will. Let me mention that last night's bottom-fishing recommendation was at a Hidden Pivot midpoint, and camouflage entry was specified.  This meant, essentially, buying with the trend rather than trying to catch a falling spear, and it would have entailed waiting for a trendwise 'X' entry point on the lesser charts after 1220 was reached on the pullback.  Posting in another chat room, someone -- a Rick's Picks subscriber, apparently --  took me to task for the "complexity" of this strategy and for generally elevating the level of complexity of my touts. There is some truth to this, but I have done so because there  are now many hundreds of subscribers who  have completed the Hidden Pivot course and who can handle a little complexity -- not to mention, explain mildly challenging strategies to less experienced traders in the chat room.  I am grateful that a spirit of helpfulness pervades the room to make this possible, but it was through design rather than accident that this is so. In any event, I will continue to put out an occasional trade -- a Pick of the Day -- that even the greenest novice can execute easily, usually with a limit-order entry. The goal of these trades is to make Rick's Picks pay for itself, for all subscribers.  When vetting a Pick of the Day, I look for trades that are as close to the sure thing as can be found, at least by me, so if your opportunity hasn't arrived yet, please be patient:  I want the experience of winning to be as pleasant and stress-free for you as possible. (See also: my recent gold coverage)

The futures look finally to be leaving the 1214.90 midpoint resistance behind, presaging a run-up to as high as 1261.80 over the next 3-5 days.  More immediately, they are tracking a minor bullish pattern that points with some clarity to 1236.20.  If it's breached by more than $1 or so, we should infer that a test of mid-May's 1251.40 high is imminent. Night owls can try buying on a pullback to 1220.00, the midpoint associated with the 1236.20 target, but I'd suggest using camouflage if available to limit the entry risk to four ticks or less. ______ UPDATE:  The futures dipped as low as 1218.20 overnight, so any attempt to buy down near 1220.00 with an ultratight stop-loss would have been stopped out for a small loss. 

The futures spent the whole day obsessing over an important midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1214.90 that was flagged in yesterday's tout.  A two-day close above it is still needed to signal a likely thrust to 1261.80, but a stab above a prior peak at 1222.30 would likely also do the trick.  Amidst all the noise on Thursday, the futures could muster only 1220.60.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1210.90, stop 1210.40.  This is the 'd' target of a corrective pattern taken from the 5-minute chart, where a=1217.10. (See also: our recent gold coverage)

The 1261.80 target that I alluded to in today's commentary is the Hidden Pivot sibling of a midpoint resistance at 1214.90 that was also mentioned. The provenance of both of these numbers is shown in the accompanying chart, and although the rally pattern is a little too obvious to be considered ideal, it looks good enough for predictive purposes.  Night owls will not easily find camouflage, since the uptrend is entering its fifth straight day, but you might try boarding on whatever pullback -- the briefer the better -- occurs following a feint above  the 1222.30 peak labeled in the chart.

The rally sputtered out a tad shy of a Hidden Pivot target at 1209.40, but expect it to get there today -- or possibly to  1213.60 if any higher -- before buyers run out of steam for perhaps a short while. Both targets are shown in the chart, and both are clear and compelling, so a push past them should be treated as good news for bulls.

The pullback from mid-May's 1251.00 peak is sufficient in theory to have recharged the futures for a rally to as high as 1369.  However, looking at the weekly chart (see inset) the eye craves more backing and filling to bring the current correction into better symmetry with the earlier correction at k-A.  In any event, a resumption of the major uptrend would be signaled by a 50-point "booster-stage" rally from the so-far point 'C' low at 1168.00 or lower.