Google

If any stock looks strong enough to turn the market around, it's this one. Unlike Netflix, which has also been quite robust in recent weeks, Google refreshed the bullish energy of the intraday charts with its most recent thrust. You can see that it surpassed May 22's external high at 909.31, strongly implying that the selloff from Wednesday's high is a correction that should be bought.  If and when the pattern I've highlighted trips a buy signal, 'camo' traders should drop down to the 15-minute chart or less for a low-risk entry signal. ________ UPDATE (June 24, 8:12 p.m. EDT): All bets are off, since yesterday's low turned the daily chart into a so-far even 'duel' between bulls and bears. The bearish impulse leg became manifest with a dip beneath June 13's low at 865.50.  _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:08 a.m. EDT): And now it's bulls who are in charge, targeted on 891.82 (see inset, a fresh chart). Once above the 883.00 midpoint pivot shown, the stock would be a promising long for camouflageurs. We've discovered during the Wednesday sessions that, trading the 30-second chart, one needn't risk more than 15-20 cents per round lot on entry.

Much as we've come to view the stock market as a one-way bet these days, so have we come to accept that Google will eventually sell for $1000 a share.  Or will it? I'd need odds to bet the "Don't Pass" line on this one, but it is at least curious that the stock's most recent rally failed by a hair to surpass a small but technically significant 'external' peak at 892.14 that I've labeled in the chart.  As we know, rallies that are destined for bigger things don't usually hesitate at such trivial obstacles, but in this case Google did. If you look closely at similar rallies in the chart, you'll see that in each instance where there was a small peak that required just a smidgen more effort to exceed, the stock did not fail.  GOOG could still surpass 892.14 on the next thrust, but as we know, it's the first attempt that defines whether buyers have the moxie to keep on going.  I raise this point speculatively, of course, and Google will still be on a nice 'camo' buy signal if it gets past 892.14 and pulls back from just above it.  But we should nonetheless note the small failure that has already occurred as a very subtle warning sign of possible trouble ahead.

Bulls and bears have been in 'dueling' mode for two weeks, but the latter hold a small edge at the moment because the recent rally top at 891.00 conspicuously failed to surpass May 28's 892.14 peak. This is true for the 240-minute chart shown, although charts of lesser degree remain sufficiently bullish to imply that traders could position from either side, depending on what time frame suits their needs. Most immediately, camoflageurs should seek opportunity on the 30-minute chart, where a so-far minor downtrend promises to generate a subtly impulsive 'a-b' leg: a=883.96 on 6/11 at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Google has bounced from within two cents of a crystal-clear Hidden Pivot target (see inset), but the rebound so far has been weak for a pattern that took nearly two weeks to reach its destination. Under the circumstances, if DaBoyz can't muster a bit more oomph today, look for a relapse down to at least 842.76.  That Hidden Pivot was calculated by sliding up to the highest high on the chart (920.60) for an alternative point 'A'.

All signs point higher at the moment, but even Google will have to top somewhere. My best-bet for a short-able apex is 929.78, the Hidden Pivot target of a well-defined ABCD on the monthly chart (see inset). You can try shorting with camouflage at that number, or at the D target (in purple) of the lesser pattern, but until then all trades should incorporate a bullish bias.  ______ UPDATE (May 23, 12:40 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's selloff did not create an impulse leg on the hourly chart, but it is not exactly a sign of good health that the decline has begun without GOOG's having quite achieved our 929.78 target. A further drop today exceeding 883.96 to the downside would add to the evidence that the recent top will be an important one. _______ UPDATE (May 28): If Friday's lows give way, look for a further fall to exactly 854.65. That's a Hidden Pivot support that comes from the hourly chart (A=909.31  on 5/22), and it can be bottom-fished either using camouflage or the tightest stop-loss you can handle. _______ UPDATE (May 29): A day of gratuitous hysterics has altered our target slightly.  It is now 853.84, a Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished as noted above. _______ UPDATE (June 4):  From the opening-bar high, GOOG plunged $16 today, to an intraday low at 854.07 that came with 23 cents of the target given above.  The subsequent bounce carried nearly $8, so it would have been a great set-up for bottom-fishing (or exiting shorts). If you would like to learn how to do this cheap parlor trick yourself, consider taking the Hidden Pivot Webinar.  This six-hour course is available to all and can be taken at your leisure in six recorded segments.  Note to camouflage traders:  The first place you might

I'd almost forgotten how fun and easy it is to trade stocks, as opposed to futures. Those who trade the former are as dumb as fence posts compared to the nasty talent that's cruising the commodity markets 24/7.  The latter held little promise yesterday, and so, looking for opportunity, we took a hard look at Google during the weekly tutorial session. A clear-as-day corrective pattern popped up on the 15-minute chart, and so I advised bottom-fishing, provide the target was reached before the final hour. In the actual event, the stock fell nearly $5, bottoming within 37 cents of the 816.73 target. During the session, and in the chat room shortly thereafter, I advised buying May 3 (i.e., expiring this Friday) calls at the 825 strike if and when the target was hit. Now, because someone in the room reported a fill at 1.75 , I am establishing tracking guidance with this tout.  Google rallied nearly $5 off the low, and the calls closed @ 2.40, up 50% from their intraday low of 1.60.  Ideally, half the position should have been taken off before the close.  However, because the chat-roomer who bought them didn't realize he'd been filled until after the close, I'm treating the position as though we still hold four calls.  Accordingly, I'll recommend selling half of them on the opening while offering a third for 2.70. The last we'll continue to hold for as long as possible, swinging for a home run. These calls will be shedding time premium rapidly, since their remaining lifespan is shorter than a mayfly's. However, we are compensated for the time-premium risk by Google's ability to make them $10 in-the-money with one gigantic leap. If that or something like it happens, I'll suggest that you take the money and run without waiting

Google's take-no-prisoners short-squeeze could go another 20 points before it hits something solid. There are two daunting impediments, actually:  March 6's all-time high at 844.00, and the 839.58 Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. Yesterday's close above the 818.08 midpoint resistance implies the target is likely to be reached, so camo trader should position from the long side for now. If we attempt a 'camouflage' short up there, we'll do it with put options and theoretical risk of no more than 0.20 ($20) per contract.  Click here for a free trial subscription that includes 24/7 access to the chat room and intraday trading alerts in real time.

Keep the 801.13 midpoint support shown in mind if you're keen on bottom-fishing. Since it closely coincides with a structural low at 801.47 that is likely to draw some eyeballs, camouflage is essential.  Because any slippage below 801.47 will be read by our competition as a breakdown, camouflage tactics are all but certain to yield an edge in helping us distinguish between a fake and a true breakdown. _______ UPDATE (9:35 p.m. EDT):  The stock gapped $11 lower on the opening bar, to 801.50, then spent the rest of the day pounding on our 801.13 pivot without breaching it.  The actual low was 801.33, but there was little point in carrying a long position overnight.  With GOOG so precariously perched at the close, it'd be like rolling dice._______ UPDATE (March 31, 11:25 p.m. EDT):  The stock fell over the edge on Thursday and now looks bound for the 781.02 'D' target associated with our midpoint support. Because that would exceed February 26's structural low at 784.40 (see inset, a new chart), possibly freaking out our competition, 'D' can be bought aggressively via camouflage or with a straight bid and a stop-loss as tight as 17 cents. _______ UPDATE (April 3, 2:37 a.m. EDT):  We'll back away for now, since yesterday's short-squeeze iced our bargain-basement bid. The stock had gone no lower than 793.25. ______ UPDATE (April 5): Let's try something else: Bottom-fish the 788.85 target shown (a new chart).  Camouflage is the method of choice here, but if you're feeling lazy, a 788.91 bid for 200 shares will suffice, stop 788.69. _______ UPDATE (12:02 p.m. EDT): The stock is in worse shape than we'd imagined, opening on a gap below 788.85, so we did nothing on the order. GOOG's daily chart is now impulsively bearish and deserving of our close

Although we could cash out our bullish butterfly spread now for at least seven times what we paid for it in late January, I'm recommending playing this position down to the wire for a potentially much bigger payoff. At yesterday's closing marks, the March 840-860-860 'fly was selling for 1.70 ($170); we paid 0.20 ($20) for it with the stock trading $90 lower. This gambit offered us a cheap way to bet that if the bull market continued for another month, Google shares would lead the charge. This is in fact what happened, and we now have shot at a 50-to-1 payoff, or as much as $1000 per spread, if GOOG is trading at exactly 850 when the closing bell rings on Friday. In practice, we'll be doing extremely well to close out the spread for perhaps $500-$600, and that's if we're lucky enough to have GOOG shares 'lock' on $850 on Friday. The reasons for this are complex, but basically, the 85o calls we'd need to buy back, or 'cover', could be extremely volatile on expiration day if the stock is playing foot-sies with the 850 strike. Under such circumstances, moments before the final bell, market makers could conceivably pay up for 'worthless' March 850 calls because they wouldn't want to face the uncertainty that comes with leaving at-the-money calls uncovered at expiration. Keep in mind that being 'assigned' on these calls is determined over the weekend by lottery, and so ten uncovered March 850 calls might turn into 1000 short shares of Google come Monday; or zero short shares; or any round-lot quantity in-between. I've included a snapshot of the option grid at yesterday's close that highlights our butterfly position. To close out a single spread, we would need to buy back two March 85os that we are