June

June Gold finished the week with a lackluster performance that nonetheless left intact the bullish pattern shown, with a 5144.00 target. The closing price was about midway along the length of a large range that stretched from 4580 to 4825. That seems excessive and could have pleased no one, but it was not especially bearish even though the futures finished the session with a $114 loss. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the green line (X=4382.40) would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 4128.00.

Our week ended with a focus on the bearish, 6328.50 target shown. For reasons that I explained in the chat room, I do not expect this Hidden Pivot support to launch the kind of short squeeze that would put the fear of the lord in the multitudes who by now must be short up to their eyeballs.  However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling, even if somewhat obvious, to deliver a tradeable turn with reasonable precision. As of Friday's close, possible trigger intervals for getting long ranged from 13.00 to 66.25 points, with a middling, third set-up requiring a 28.00 point reversal.  I'll recommend using the 13.00-er, but only with a 'C' low planted in the range 6324.00- 6335.00.  This trade is intended only for subscribers who perfectly understand my instruction. (The tactic is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course that is free to most subscribers, including new registrants who recently signed up for a full year.) _______ UPDATE (April 2, 10:51 a.m.):  A Hidden Pivot at 6692.00, about 90 points above, is where I would suggest shorting this bear rally. It is not impregnable, and a rip through it would imply the move is capable of 7030.75. However, I doubt this will happen. Worst case for permabears: a rally to 6780 or so that pulls back to 6522. That would trigger a 'mechanical' buy so juicy that even I would be a buyer.

The 6499.50 target I posted in the chat room Friday morning implied that a 100-point drop was coming. It did, almost. I also said the Hidden Pivot support would need to show some pluck to hold a full-blown bear market at bay, at least for a while.  We didn't get the test we were looking for because the pattern proved too obvious and its target got front-run with ES 60 points above it; however, a test is coming nonetheless. Stay focused this week on my magic number, and don't accept anything less than a rally above C=6903.00 as minimal evidence the bull market is still breathing.

The futures ended last week's sprightly death dance poised to move higher as soon as Wall Street gives the all-clear for nervous Nellies worried about the war between Israel and Iran. Although the September contract hasn't signaled a certain move to the 6358.00 rally target, it has shown enough buoyancy to make a pullback to the green line (x=5948.00) an enticing buy with a 5811.00 stop-loss. Use a 'camo' trigger to cut that down to size so that theoretical entry risk is no more than $175 per contract.

I've used the June chart to allow a little more running room for the finale of this now two-month-old bear rally. The new target lies at 6132.75, about 82 points above the one given here previously. Although I am fairly confident the Hidden Pivot resistance will work, I'm prepared nonetheless for a Mother of All Tops to occur marginally above last December's record-high 6235.  I don't usually dig in my heels where mere feelings are involved, but I've had it up to here with bullish hubris and the idiotic notion that stocks somehow deserve to be trading at these levels. We are literally at a civilizational height of folly, and the usual shenanigans will not suffice to push this vehicle through formidable layers of supply that accumulated between last October and March. It may be working for Microsoft, but that is why I expressed doubts earlier that the broad averages would follow.

I've disdained the brute power of a 1200-point rally to focus on a simple target at 6051.50 that could conceivably stop the charge. Of course, it never feels like the trend is about to die when it has come this far and lies within easy distance of the old highs. Even if they are achieved, however I'm going to reserve some skepticism for the question of whether the breakout will be marginal rather than the start of a significant new leg up. I doubt it will prove to be the latter, but there's no point getting heavily invested in outcomes attributable more to mental illness than to the rational actions of investors. The target can be shorted, but only if you know how to control the entry risk so that it stays theoretically below $225 per contract.

Gold's bull market remains solidly intact, but it is in no hurry at the moment to push up to the $5000 level as its handlers presumably intend. In the meantime, expect the futures to mark time with a drift down into the $3000-$3100 range, where they could cruise effortlessly for months until it's time to stretch the bullish imagination yet again. Alternatively, a decisive push above $3400 would imply that the sovereign entities that have been doing most of the buying sense a further escalation of geopolitical trouble on the horizon. The 'D' rally target associated with a 3393.10 midpoint resistance lies at 3662.80, the highest target I could foresee over the next 5-7 weeks. (Please note that 3423.20 is the equivalent midpoint resistance for the August Comex contract. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3695.30.) ______ UPDATE (June 3, 12:12 a.m.): An explosive overnight rally has pushed the August contract to a so-far high at 3417.80 that lies just an inch from the 3423.20 midpoint resistance I'd said was key. A decisive move past it will clinch more upside to at least p2=3559.20, and thence to the 3695.30 'D' target given above as my maximum upside objective for the next 5-7 weeks.

Although I no longer expect the June contract to achieve a new record high, it can still be bought 'mechanically' on a pullback to p=5483.88, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. The textbook stop would be 5266.75, implying a theoretical entry risk of nearly $11,000 per contract. It should be possible to cut that down to around $250, however, by using a 'camo' trigger fashioned from an intraday chart, so that's how we'll plan on getting aboard if the opportunity arises. Nudge me if I'm in the chat room then and we can plot this one together. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 5:08 p.m.): DaBoyz left shorts badly bleeding and hanging on the ropes with today's short squeeze. They were warned when last week's low on Friday narrowly missed touching a theoretical, major sell signal at 5742.00 (see inset chart).

A 3360.50 rally target kept us confidently on board last week, even though DaBoyz tried their hardest to shake bulls loose on Thursday. Notice that the futures slightly exceeded the target by $6.  The 0.17% overshoot may not seem significant, but it has bullish implications in this case because the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, should have worked precisely.  The next rally target lies at 3393.10, the midpoint resistance of a bigger, conventional pattern going back to April 7's 2970.40 low. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3662.80 that lies $153 above the previous record.