June

Although the rally may already have begun to feel the magnetic pull of the old high, that is no assurance a new high will be achieved. It will first have to push past a Hidden Pivot resistance at 6128.25 that has the potential to stop the rally dead.  The effect is likely to be precise if it occurs at all, so you won't have to ponder price action for more than an hour or two once the target is hit to figure out what might come next. The target is worth shorting provideddd you have the chops to pare entry risk down to 3.00 points or less per contract.

The futures did nothing last week to allay suspicions that the no-longer-exciting move off early April's low is just a garden-variety bear rally. Although it exceeded my 5736.00 target by five points, the fact that one needs a microscope to see this on the weekly chart means we should treat the resistance as intact. If buyers get decisively past it, I will be the first to guarantee 5867.00 as a minimum price objective. But we'll remain disciplined for now, and that means bulls must prove their case every step of the way. I may put out a trade in the chat room this week because this vehicle's minor swings are so easy to read. Stay close to the room if you're interested.  The trade will likely happen too quickly for an email blast to be of much value, but if I see an opportunity developing lazily, I'll notify everyone.

June Gold looks headed to at least 3730.00, but that's provided it can get past the 3533.90 Hidden Pivot I ballyhooed here for a while. (The target worked well, to put it mildly, getting within 0.6% of the actual so-far top at 3510.) If June Gold were to drop by $200 now, it would not necessarily be reason for concern; for in fact, 3135.90 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2938.00. These numbers come from the monthly composite chart (see thumbnail inset), where A=1618 in November 2022.  Best bet for tightly stopped bottom-fishing: 3261.50, the 'd' target of a pattern discernible on the hourly chart.  _______ UPDATE (May 12, 3:08 p.m. EDT): The savage drubbing gold has received today reversed from such an obvious place that a relapse seems likely. The low for June Gold occurred at 3211.20, a hair above an important low recorded on May 1. Look for the selling to continue to at least 3147.70 before the futures find a decent foothold. (Note: The pattern on which this target is based is poorly formed, so I would not advise trying to bottom-fish there with the usual tight stop-loss.) Alternatively, a pop above 3352.70, however unlikely at the moment, would put bulls solidly back in charge. The selling feels more engineered than organic, and I doubt it threatens the long-term bull market. However, we’ll let the charts decide, since the downtrend would likely have farther to go if bearish ABCD patterns of varying time frames start to exceed their ‘D’ targets routinely

At the risk of being premature, I've used the weekly chart's breach of a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 56.30 as evidence that crude is likely to be trading lower in the weeks and months ahead. This is like trying to call Arizona's election an hour after the polls close, but in any case, sellers' ability to penetrate the support is surely not a sign of robust health. Even now, a rally to x=60.57, the green line, would trigger a mechanical short, stop 64.85.  There is no way to estimate how long it will take for this to play out, but in the meantime, we should trade even the rallies with a bearish bias. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:43 a.m.): I now see that the short noted above had already triggered at x=60.57 when I posted the tout. I will track the trade nonetheless, using the suggested 64.85 stop-loss. The worst-case target for this gambit is 47.87,  a conventional 'D' target where A=69.93 (4/3) on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 2:59 p.m.): I've been bearish or indifferent toward crude for so long that it has become a habit to predict generally lower prices. That said, a fist-pump through 65.78 would grab my attention, since it would indicate more upside to as high as 76.89.  I doubt this will happen, but it's always better to be prepared if it does.

The slimeballs who manipulate this stock for a living made full use of a short-squeeze opportunity when Microsoft announced earnings after Wednesday's close that unsurprisingly surpassed estimates. What could bears have been thinking?? DaBoyz kicked off the celebration with a $40 rally after the close, then worked their criminal magic again on Friday's opening to hoist the stock a further $10.  Realize that no stock changed hands during the spectacular first stage of this maneuver, and only a relative handful of shares traded on the second. The result was an approximately $317 billion contribution to the financial realm's gaseous 'wealth effect'.  Most of it came in mere nanoseconds, since that's how long it takes to create an enormous gap on a chart. This is a feat that mere bullish buying could never have hoped to achieve. It required mainly the arrant stupidity of shorts, who dependably acted as though the risk of getting blown out of the water was negligible. If I had to guess where MSFT, financialization's chief instrument for adding fake money to the system, is headed, I'd say to xxx.xx.  I don't want to queer the bold, Hidden Pivot magic of this number, so I'll post it only in the chat room.

The futures ended the week a hair shy of a 5736.00 target I'd posted in the chat room. This would have merited an aggressive short if the target had been hit, ideally with at least 90 minutes remaining in the session. Alas, we'll have to reserve these ambitions, since it will be a new game when the futures start to trade again ahead of Monday's opening. The target is still shortable, but squeezing off the trade could be harrowing in the thin-volume nervousness of Sunday evenings. If the June contract blows past 5736.00, be prepared to short the next target aggressively, a Hidden Pivot 'd' target at 5867.00.

I used a tiny one-off high to draw the pattern shown, but three confirmations at p suggest it will produce only winning outcomes for us. That would imply that a drop to D=3174.50 should be bought aggressively, albeit with the obligatory micro-stop possible using a 'camo' trigger. One thing the chart does NOT say is that June Gold will necessarily reach the target, since the initial penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot was anything but decisive. Notice, however, that it delivered a profitable 'mechanical' short - three of them, actually - and that's usually a tip-off that D/d will be reached. We don't much trade 'conventional' patterns any longer, but this one, with its crazy point 'a' and asymmetry, seemed ripe for exploitation. _______ UPDATE Apr 6, 5:52 p.m.): As the chart makes crystal-clear, June Gold is headed most immediately to 3472.7, the ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ of the pattern shown. It can be shorted there, but only with a delicate stop-loss, since the futures will be on their way to 3736.00 in a trice if they blow past the midpoint resistance without hesitation. You could always try shorting up there, but wouldn’t it be far better to shove your accursed doubts aside for once and catch an almost certain 300-point rally?   

June Crude has tripped a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy signal, but we'll use it to get our bearings rather than try for a quick score. Pullbacks to the green line from the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=63.66) are riskier to buy 'mechanically', at least for a move back to the target, but the set-up is often good for a one-level ride, in this case from 57.67 to 60.66. It's too late to jump aboard, since the futures are already trading above x=57.67. Still, I'll suggest observing what happens next to familiarize yourselves with the trade and the opportunity big retracements can create..04

The futures were bound for the 5787.25 target shown when the closing bell ended Friday's v-shaped rally.  The implied 4.2% gain would put the June contract within shooting distance of old record-highs just above 6200.  A move to 5787.25 seemed assured when the trading week ended, since the intraday low occurred precisely on a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. Strong uptrends are supposed to produce weak retracements, according to the rules of my system, and that perfectly describes what happened on Friday. There could be an opportunity to scalp a pullback from p2=5623.00 on the way up, but your trading bias should remain bullish otherwise.