SIH12

A bearish target at 28.425 is equivalent to one at 28.385 that I broached a while back as a high-probability number for the December contract.  While there are no bearish forecasts that cannot be negated by a rally, in this case the required thrust would have to hit 36.655 (!) to kayo bears.  However, a much subtler sign of a bullish turn would be evinced by a decisive push through the 33.135 midpoint of the pattern shown.  If you're keen on catching the rally, that would be a good place to look for "camouflage."

Silver should run into resistance at 33.675, just below last week's high, but if the bulls can dispatch both of those levels, $35 comes into play with a "D" target at 34.985.  With the silver market, we go three-for-three in using last Wednesday's low as the A point for our pattern.  It must be said that silver has not recovered as convincingly as has gold from the deep lows of late September, and as in the other two markets covered today, we will have to watch for a decline that challenges our "C" point, in this case 32.365.  Friday's selloff in silver was powerful and can be seen as a bearish impulse wave.  Pivoteers should identify the slender coordinates of that pattern, do the math, and be aware of those downside targets along with the bullish ones described here.  (Posted by Doug "harry" McLagan) _______ UPDATE (2:37p.m. EST):  Traders who did the math had the opportunity to catch a bounce off of the bearish midpoint alluded to at the end of the tout.  The prominent A point was Friday's high of 33.740, and the midpoint of the pattern came in at 32.400 or 32.395, depending on how you chose to round the half-tick value.  After a low of 32.385, the futures rallied to a high of 32.565, a nice multiple of the risk that would have been involved in the trade.  The sibling "D" target of the pattern is at 31.710. [Note: Due to a technical problem, charts are not included in today's touts, but they can be viewed via links in the chat room.  See the first posts in the Monday log.]

Gold has been pulling Silver along, but if the latter is to be judged capable of flying solo, we should expect to see a pop today exceeding 34.005, an 'external' peak noted in the chart that accompanied yesterday's Silver tout. (Check the pulldown archive under the symbol SIH12).