SIH12

Minor targets were exceeded so easily yesterday that we should skip the small stuff and consider bigger bearish patterns. One projects to 26.010, and we should consider it a done deal if the 27.970 midpoint support with which it is associated gives way easily. Both numbers can be bottom-fished, but more immediately we should look for subtle opportunities to get short. Just such a one was manifesting itself on the hourly chart as we went to press, and I'll therefore recommend shorting on a sell-stop if the 28.855 entry trigger is hit. Take profits on half the position at the 28.755 midpoint, and on another 25% at D=28.550.  With the single contract that would remain from an initial position of four contracts, you should use a bullish impulse-leg stop on the one-minute chart until morning.  ______ UPDATE (2:13 a.m. EST): The short triggered around 9:45 p.m. but was stopped out at around 1:26 a.m. The theoretical loss was 11 cents, or $550 per contract.  There was no chance to take a partial profit to reduce the risk, since the downtrend did not quite reach the 28.755 midpoint support of the pattern where we would have done so.  In order to learn from this trade, I've substituted a 15-minute chart for the 60-minute so that you can see clearly where it went awry.  To begin with, the 15-minute chart was where we should have looked for camouflage, not the hourly.  And, as you can see, the 'X' where we initiated the short trade on the hourly fell within a bullish A-B impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Under the circumstances, camouflage if properly applied would have told us to get long rather than short -- and with much less risk.  If you took this trade, please let me know in the

A minor downtrend from Sunday's 29.795 high pointed to at least 29.370, but if that Hidden Pivot gives way easily we should brace for more selling down to the 29.170 target of the pattern shown. Alternatively, bulls would need to push this vehicle to 29.870 today to send the bad guys diving for cover.  All of these price points are shown in the chart.

A midpoint pivot at 27.010 flagged here earlier beckons as a minimum downside objective, but it could also provide a staging platform for a reversal of the bear cycle begun from 43.510 in early September.  This Hidden Pivot support can be bottom-fished provided you are able to initiate the trade via camouflage so that entry risk does not exceed $70 theoretical.  In practice, this will probably entail using patterns visible on charts of 10-minute degree or lower.

We've been using a 28.425 target to keep us on the right side of this move, but I'm going to shift our focus lower, to the 27.010 'p' midpoint pivot of a bearish pattern that looks more compelling to me (see inset).  Indeed, the pivot is so well situated that if Feb Gold had not smashed through its equivalent support, I'd infer that Silver is fixing to lead the next important turnaround. As things stand, it's probably no better than a 2-to-1 bet, since Gold's downtrend is so well developed. Regardless, camouflageurs can try bottom fishing near 'p', but keep in mind that other traders will be playing for a bounce from the whole number 27.000.  You can also try it at 28.425 as originally suggested, but don't risk more than $70 on the initial stop.

Silver is holding up a little better than gold, undoubtedly because it has not been targeted for destruction with the vengefulness that central bankers and their bullion-banker chums reserve for the latter.  Regarding my forecast, there is no change in the immediate outlook.  A Hidden Pivot support at 30.520 remains my minimum downside target for the near term. As suggested here earlier, you can bottom-fish there either via camouflage or with the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  Keep in mind that the 28.425 target of a larger pattern identified here a while back is still very much in play. _______ UPDATE (10:27 a.m. EDT):  The midpoint support at 30.520 has been savaged -- an event that occurred yesterday but which I somehow overlooked -- so we can expect this onslaught of selling to continue to at least 28.425 before the futures gain traction. Camouflageurs can buy down there aggressively, but theoretical risk in any case should be held to $70 or less per contract.

A Hidden Pivot support at 30.520 remains my minimum downside target for the near term. As suggested here earlier, you can bottom-fish there either via camouflage or with the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  Keep in mind that the 28.425 target of a larger pattern identified here a while back is still very much in play.

Friday's gratuitous rally has given way to Sunday night's perhaps other-than-gratuitous selling, producing an immediate downside target at 31.455 that is the exact low so far. If it's breached, expect the weakness to continue to at least 30.520, its 'D' sibling.  That number can be bottom-fished either via camouflage or with the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  Keep in mind that the 28.425 target of a larger pattern identified here a while back is still very much in play.

Silver has come cascading down with gold tonight, even if the former is of scant concern to central banks that have trained their heavy artillery on the latter. Our interest in buying the March contract should await a dip to 28.425, a bearish Hidden pivot target noted here earlier. A camouflage entry is advised, since structural supports beneath the pivot are in very short supply. Alternatively, it would take a print today at 34.010 to give it to the bad guys good and hard.

There's no change in my immediate outlook, which calls for a burst to 34.270 if and when that number's midpoint sibling at 32.960 gives way. A pop to 33.380 would still create an impulse leg sufficiently robust to make 34.270 an odds-on bet for the near term. Traders should consider using the two peaks just below 33.375 to leverage a camouflage ‘buy’. They are best viewed on a 30-minute chart, which can be accessed by calling up Wednesday's tout for this vehicle.