Rick Ackerman

The pattern in the chart is so pretty that it can work for you no matter how you use it. Whether you're eager to get long or short, DIA looks nearly certain to achieve the Hidden Pivot resistance at 294.00 and then to produce a tradeable pullback precisely from it. Why? For two weeks traders were the unwitting slaves of the midpoint pivot at 283.81. That validated the pattern and its target. When buyers finally broke free of p's gravity this morning, the surge all but clinched a run-up to 294.00. Buy out-of-the-money puts for under 0.50 when DIA gets there, but stay tuned to the Trading room for real-time guidance if you're eager to trade with the trend in the meantime. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:06 p.m. EST): The 294.00 rally target remains viable, but be prepared for more selling first. It would take a 292.80 print to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 9:57 p.m.): Dow index futures have sold off hard tonight on news of an Iranian missile attack, exceeding a 282.56 target for DIA that is the lowest I could have projected using Hidden Pivot levels. I am embarrassed to say that the 288.63 top on Jan 2 was the most egregious missed opportunity that I can recall in a long, long while. I must have been asleep at the wheel.  Here's the chart, which makes a short at exactly 288.47 practically glow in the dark. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:25 p.m.): After plummeting 4.47 points, DIA has rebounded to the 288.47 Hidden Pivot noted above. If it can close above it for two consecutive days, look for more upside to the 291.78 target shown in this chart. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:23 p.m.): A relapse to x=285.62 (shown

The Indoos dove more than 300 points last week after topping at the precise intersection of a well advertised trendline and an important Hidden Pivot target. The two obstacles together represented the most formidable technical challenge bulls have faced in more than a year. Ordinarily we might expect a correction lasting at least four to six weeks. But these days, four to six days of weakness seems more likely, given the relentless enthusiasm of buyers and the very narrow list of stocks on which they have trained their buying power. So where to next?  I'd suggest using a 30299 target for now. It comes from the weekly chart and is the secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot of a rally pattern begun from A=15,503 in February of 2016. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:10 p.m.): Before tonight's selloff I'd assumed last Thursday's slight penetration of a very strong trendline was bullish. I still think so, albeit with somewhat reduced confidence. The trendline itself is as clear and compelling as they come, and that's why I think the pop above it holds bullish implications. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:34 p.m.): The Indoos popped above the trendline again before settling about 80 points below it. If they can close for two straight days above the line, look for more upside to at least 29,299. That Hidden Pivot comes from the following coordinates on the daily chart: A=27,801 (12/11); B=28701 (12/27). Please note as well that p2=29,059 could offer resistance that would potentially be tradable. ______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:40 p.m.): Remember that scene in Mars Attacks! where the U.S. military, having failed to stop the aliens with missiles and cannons, explodes a nuclear device in outer space near their spaceship? An alien sucks the mushroom cloud into his lungs

Stocks seem all but certain to move sharply higher this week, since AAPL has an unfulfilled rally target at 314.28 that's seven percent above. The only puzzler is that every Tom, Dick and Harry in the guru business seems to be expecting a selloff to commence around mid-month. The most logical inference I can draw from this is that the rally will pick up steam in the second half of January and become a wilding spree. If so, there's a 3348.75 Hidden Pivot target waiting for the thundering herd in the E-Mini S&Ps. It equates to a 1500-point rally in the Dow to around 30,000.

We continue to focus on AAPL's short-to-intermediate-term prospects, since, as long as it is headed higher, the broad averages will be moving in the same direction.  It is the most popular stock in the world right now, and all of the "experts" seem quite certain that it is going to the moon in 2020.  These geniuses will get no argument from me, since even the most daunting Hidden Pivot resistances have failed to slow the stock down for more than a day or two. At the moment, having chomped through granite around $294, AAPL looks bound for the 314.28 target shown. The midpoint pivot at 299.75 is all but guaranteed to effect tradeable resistance, but don't expect it to last for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 1:20 p.m. EST): The trade-desk chimpanzees are out in force today, kicking off the New Year with the only trick they know: buying AAPL hand-over-fist. How courageous! The stock's stall at exactly p=298.50 implies that this pattern, with a 311.77 target, is the one to use to trade this lunatic-powered gas-bag. Earlier, I'd suggested calendar spreading the 315 strike, and that's still not a bad way to go. If anyone puts up an rABC in the Trading Room to get aboard, I'd be happy to vet it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 6:42 p.m.): Check my 14:10 post in the Trading Room for details of a butterfly spread I've recommended. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:09 p.m.): AAPL has opened firm Sunday night, barely dipping beneath Friday's closing price so far. Even so, we should expect DaBoyz to take the stock down at least a point or two, since they have a good opportunity to buy it at a discount. I'll post a new strategy for playing a rally to 311.97 when the stock appears to

So what does your permabear editor see next for the bull market that won't die? For starters, an S&P run-up to the 3348.75 target of the pattern shown. If and when it is reached -- a very good bet, in my estimation -- the Dow Industrials, currently trading for around 28,538, would be at 30,000. The whys and wherefors are irrelevant, since the technical signs are clear enough. Although bulls did not exactly impale the midpoint resistance at 3209.88, they got well past it last week and seem to have turned it from resistance into support. This suggests that we should use p2=3279.31 as a minimum upside projection for the near term, meaning mid-to-late January or so. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 6:48 p.m. EST): What the heck could I have been thinking when I wrote above that this hot-air balloon would take another week or two to waft up to 3279.3? Looks more like it will happen by Monday, if not sooner.

The Indoos dove more than 300 points last week after topping at the precise intersection of a well advertised trendline and an important Hidden Pivot target. The two obstacles together represented the most formidable technical challenge bulls have faced in more than a year. Ordinarily we might expect a correction lasting at least four to six weeks. But these days, four to six days of weakness seems more likely, given the relentless enthusiasm of buyers and the very narrow list of stocks on which they have trained their buying power. So where to next?  I'd suggest using a 30299 target for now. It comes from the weekly chart and is the secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot of a rally pattern begun from A=15,503 in February of 2016.

What a year it was! Those fortunate enough to have been substantially untouched by news have reason to be thankful. Today's touts will be the last for 2019, but stay tuned for updates, most likely perfunctory, as stocks inch toward the finish line of this maximally truncated holiday week. May the year ahead be bountiful in all good ways.

After watching the bull market break all the rules for the last ten years, we know better than to think that even the most formidable-looking technical barrier will slow it down for more than a day or two. Indeed, seldom have we seen prices fall for three consecutive days -- a rarity even in the good old days. (Old-timers may recall that the October 1987 crash, when many traders might have thought the world was ending, lasted but for two full days and a fraction of a third.) Still, it would be careless to ignore the double barrier which stopped the DJIA's ascent on Friday: a Hidden Pivot resistance and a trendline that both trace back to the first quarter of 2019.  Instead of getting all worked up about the prospect of a healthy correction to end the year, however, we'll simply assume that bulls are capable of holding things steady for at least a few more days, come what may. Since everyone expects this, or perhaps a continuation of December's wilding spree, we should be on our guard against a (very) contrarian surprise.

For more than a decade the bull market has flouted trendlines, Hindenburg Omens, Hidden Pivot resistances, cycles, channel tops and other ostensible rally killers, so there's little reason to think it will not soon overcome the double whammy of some new impediments it encountered on Friday (see inset). We recently discussed the imposing DJIA trendline shown in the chart because it precisely capped three rallies earlier in the year; on Friday it came within a few points of nailing the high of yet another. What I hadn't noticed before is an additional resistance, a 28,738 Hidden Pivot target that fell within a tenth of a percent of Friday's high. Long experience has taught us that bulls are likely to be frolicking above this seemingly crucial technical threshold soon, presumably bound for Dow 30,000. Even so, there are reasons to doubt they will do so before 2019 ends, and that even if they should push the Indoos to new record highs early in 2020, they are unlikely to blithely ignore the unsettling problems of two corporate giants, Boeing and FedEx. Rather than get worked up about the possibility of a major top, we'll simply adopt a cautious, if not to say mildly bearish, trading bias for the remainder of the year. In practice this will entail monitoring minor, downtrending abc patterns for signs of waxing strength. If they should start exceeding their 'd' targets, that would mean the dominant trend -- a.k.a. the bull market -- is weakening or worse. ______ UPDATE (Dec 30, 5:15 p.m.): A good start!  Bears were understandably skittish about going on the attack for a rare change, but they did manage to push the Dow down by 183 points. Interest in the markets is next to nil at the moment, especially in the chat room, so