Rick Ackerman

We've become used to seeing gold struggle for loft when stocks are rallying because the chimpanzees who move the markets can't handle the implied mash-up of risk-on/risk-off strategies.  Lately, though, bullion has notched some sweet gains with stocks in their by-now reflexive rally mode. Bulls should take encouragement from the moderate surge in gold under way late Wednesday night. With the E-Mini S&Ps trading five points higher, Comex February Gold has been up as much as $5, extending a $25 gain recorded over the last few sessions. If it picks up a little steam, the rally could soon reach the 1529.50 target first broached in Rick's Picks two weeks ago, when a 'buy' signal triggered at 1491.30.

Because this vehicle was designed to tempt suckers into buying puts and calls, we don't bet on it very often. Only when it has fallen to a compelling, precisely targeted low do we consider buying options, and even then we buy only cheap ones with just a week or two left on them. This time, a 15.66 target that seemed too enticing to pass up drew our interest. On Friday, $200 worth of calls we'd bought a week earlier to satisfy a gambling jones vanished in a puff of smoke when they expired worthless. Looking ahead, I see little likelihood of jumping back in until such time as the 9.92 target shown is hit or closely approached.   The S&Ps would probably have to rise well above 3400, and the Dow above 30,000, before this happens. It seems incredible, but that's what the chart says, and it says it clearly.

Friday's modest leap narrowly missed our still-interesting trendline, which came in at around 28,661.  Because it is rising with a slope of about 12 points per day, we should look for resistance on Monday at 28,673, moving up to 28,721 by week's end. If and when it is hit, plan on buying some cheap DIA puts with about two weeks left on them. Be ready to jump on it if this happens on the opening bar. Otherwise, I'd suggest waiting till the close for a better deal. It will always be highly speculative to bet against a bull market that has been chugging  along for more than a decade, so don't overdo it. This is just to have a horse in the race. ______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 6:05 p.m.): The trendline comes in Tuesday at around 28,705, as near as I can make it.  My gut feeling is that the Indoos will get within 10-15 points of this 'hidden resistance' before feeling its downforce. If you are keen on getting short, the instruction above still applies. ______ 'UPDATE (Dec 26, 12:30 a.m.): For Thursday, I estimate the trendline will be at 28,712. The trading guidance given above remains viable. Last week's 28,608 high got close enough to the line that we should be open to the possibility that the anticipated top has already occurred. _______ UPDATE (Dec 26, 5:14 p.m.):  Use 28,721 for Friday. If it's hit, don't be surprised if this occurs four seconds before the closing bell. Buy a few puts anyway -- what could possibly could go wrong over the weekend?

My 3229.75 target precisely contained last week's rally, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that it will turn out to be the Mother of All Tops. Assuming buyers make short work of this Hidden Pivot resistance, the next stop on the path to infinity would be the 3252.75 target shown.  Notice that the pattern's point 'A' low is just a little pisher and therefore unlikely to produce an important 'D' high. Sliding 'A' down to the much more compelling A2 would yield a weightier 3348.75 with a midpoint resistance at 3209.88 that was decisively exceeded last week. I mention it just to be on record with a seemingly absurd -- at least for this permabear -- prediction. My gut feeling is that we'll eventually see the E-Minis trading at those levels, implying Trump actually is a shoe-in for reelection. Paradoxically, the only thing that could derail him would be a bear market. Even then, it's difficult to imagine any of the Democrats, including Hillary, beating him. _______ UPDATE (Dec 26, 12:38 a.m. EST): I expect the 3252.75 resistance noted above to show stopping power, potentially short-able, but if the futures slide past it the next resistance, unnoted above, would be at 3260.50. This is the secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot of a major ABCD pattern where 0n the daily chart A=2882.00 on 10/10. _______ UPDATE (Dec 29, 8:55 p.m.): The 3252.75 target was exceeded, but only by 1.25 points. A short from my number with a tight stop could have been worth as much as $800 per contract so far.  Anyone on board? I haven't established a tracking position because no subscriber mentioned it. _______ UPDATE (Dec 30, 5:21 p.m.): This pattern produced an rABC trade Monday from p=3128.88 that could have been worth as much as $350 per contract. The 3205.75

Friday's subdued rally had more than a faint whiff of distribution about it. DaBoyz had shorts on the run in the early going, with the Dow up about 230 points in the first hour. But instead of reaming bears a new orifice as we might have expected, the erstwhile Masters of the Universe struggled merely to maintain altitude and eventually had to close the broad averages well off their intraday highs. If you took a short position over the weekend there were some encouraging signs. For one, AAPL hit a 283.97 rally target that Rick's Picks has been drum-rolling since March, when the stock was selling for around 180. The actual high at 283.54 occurred on a dubious spike just ahead of the opening bell. The upthrust turned into a bull trap when AAPL sold off $5 intraday and never recovered.  The high stands to be a potentially important one for the bull market, since AAPL is the most popular stock in institutional portfolios. If it has hit a ceiling, then so has the stock market. Rally Outrunning Earnings The second encouraging sign for those who faded the rally was a top in the E-Mini S&Ps at 3229.50 that missed the Hidden Pivot rally target shown in the chart by a single tick. It had been sent out to subscribers the night before. Will these coinciding, fleeting peaks mark an important top? We could find out soon if shares head south on Monday and the decline gains momentum as the holiday-shortened week wears on. But even if new record highs are coming, a correction at this point would be constructive, since it would quell feverish buying that has driven equity prices much higher without any corresponding growth in earnings. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 6:30 p.m.): The rally is stuck in

The stock market's week has been so tedious, even with an impeachment, that we shouldn't be surprised if something happens to cause traders to emerge from their coma. A compelling trendline that I've mentioned here before implies the surprise would likely be to the upside, since the Dow Industrials would need to rise 500 points to reach it. The actual number is 28,692, and wouldn't that be a shocker! Most unexpected of all would be for this to happen following a slow start. If the opening looks weak, as in 'stage-managed', don't be afraid to take a small speculative stake in some cheap out-of-the-money calls in the FAANGs, TSLA, MMM or MSFT.

We looked for trade set-ups on various hourly charts, but with particular care, since it is becoming increasingly obvious that profitable trades are all-too-easy to find with hindsight. Even so, a comforting feature of the rABC trade is that getting stopped out the first time often sets up a second trade with even better odds. If you’re looking for a money-making opportunity, check out the final 15 minutes, which contains an in-depth look at ways to leverage a $425 target in TSLA.

When the Dow Industrials gained 100 points the other day as Boeing was getting clobbered, I compared it to a runner with a broken foot sprinting 100 meters in under 11 seconds. Bulls looked nearly as impressive on Wednesday, hanging tough while FedEx shares were getting the stuffing knocked out of them.  The stock was down $17, or nearly 10 percent, but if this unnerved institutional traders, you couldn't tell from the tape. DaBoyz actually managed to levitate Boeing by $4.50 -- no small feat when you consider that the aircraft manufacturer's worries are as big as FedEx's. Indeed, there would appear to be no relief in sight for either company. It will take FedEx years to build a ground-delivery system capable of handling e-commerce orders without becoming increasingly dependent on Amazon's already formidable network. There is no jackpot at the other end, either, since home deliveries of small packages will be much less lucrative than the business-to-business shipping at which FedEx has long excelled. Max-Out in January As for Boeing, it will stop building its biggest-selling jetliner, the 737 Max, in the wake of two crashes that killed 346 passengers. The company announced it would halt the Max assembly line in January, but no one can say for certain when or even whether production will resume. Can the stock market continue to rampage with two of America's most important companies on the ropes?  Probably not.  In the last few days, the bull market's steep trajectory has gone flat as DaBoyz gingerly attempt do distribute as much stock as they can before pulling the plug. I still foresee a bullish year ahead for stocks, in large part because Trump is looking more and more like a two-term president. But that doesn't mean we won't see a very nasty correction between

The trend has turned lazy this week, but we should not fail to notice that bulls haven't given up much ground. Rather than hang out yet one more potentially important top, I've focused on a minor one with a pattern that on Friday generated a mechanical buy signal. The ABCD here is gnarly but text-book beautiful, and that's why I expect a pullback precisely from the 3215.00 target.  More immediately, a mechanical bid at the red line (3184.00), stop 3173.50, would offer decent odds. I'd rate the trade a '6.7' because the eventual move past p was labored and not especially sharp or decisive. ______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 10:50 p.m. EST): Now that FedEx shares have joined Boeing's on the disabled list, we need to give more weight to the possibility that the stock market's tedious oscillations this week are just distribution. Keep in mind that if an avalanche is coming, it will be telegraphed by small abcd patterns exceeding their 'd' targets. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 5:54 p.m.): The futures are within a millimeter of the 3215.00 target, which can be shorted using a stop-loss as tight as 3216.25. If it's hit and decisively exceeded, the next stop will be 3229.75, off this pattern. Both targets look like high-odds spots for a precise turn.