Rick Ackerman

Monday's dive was a sample of what we should expect when the still hibernating bear finally emerges.  Mr Market not only delivered a swift kick in the balls, he did it while we were sleeping. I'd sent out a 3160.25 rally target last week and stuck to it even after a rally died just five points shy of it. Lo, short-covering bears got second wind Monday morning, pushing this gas-bag to a 3158.00 top that would have been easily shortable using an rABC set-up. Trouble is, the high occurred at 4 a.m. when most of us were sleeping. We shouldn't hope for great opportunities to come at convenient hours, because that's not how the game works. But we will need to be aggressive if we are going to seize whatever crumbs come our way.  For now, I have no new targets to offer, nor even a confident sense of where the futures might be headed next. _______ UPDATE Dec 3, 7:55 a.m. EST): The opening is nearly 90 minutes away, but the futures are not getting much bounce off the gnarly Hidden Pivot pattern  shown here, with a 'D' target at 3098.75.  This is not a healthy sign. DaScumballs will valiantly keep trying to exhaust sellers, groping for a bottom in order to short squeeze the opening. We shouldn't bet against their success at rigging the game in this way, but it behooves us to treat whatever rally is coming with care and skepticism.

New Year's Eve will be here in a blink, and we should expect seasonality to continue to favor bulls in the meantime. Not they need any help.  Although the broad averages have exceeded every significant technical impediment we knew of in recent weeks, there is little evidence of fatigue. Late Sunday evening, index futures were chomping on the bit, seemingly eager to extend last week's moderate gains. By now, the idiotic notion that the bull market has drawn its strength from vague 'hopes' of a trade deal should have been dispelled, since whatever deal is coming is certain to be far less consequential in dollar terms than the rally that has already occurred.  The massive upwelling since January has occurred simply because stocks are in a bull market, not because of anything having to do with world trade, politics or the economy. Rather than speculate about whether the bull trend is likely to continue in 2020, let's wait until February 2, when we can be almost certain about this. That's when the Superbowl will be played, and the outcome has an 80% chance of predicting the stock market's year. If an AFC team wins, a bear or down market is likely to follow. The New England Patriots, an AFC team, have the best record in football so far this year (10-1), but it's too early to despair.

The 3160.25 rally target we've been using to keep us properly bullish remains to be achieved. Even though Wednesday's push to 3155.00 came close, it wasn't as close as we should expect, given the way buyers took out the 3125.50 midpoint resistance earlier in the week. All that aside, the futures are trading above a major trendline after impaling it last week, presumably adding to the euphoria, so extra caution is warranted.  That means monitoring price action at 3138.00 for now, a minor Hidden Pivot support that should be expected to produce a tradeable bounce (15-minute, a=1555.00 at  6:15 pm. EST on 11/27).  A 3138.25 bid for a single contract, stop 3136.25, is suggested. You'll be on your own if the order fills. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 11:31 p.m.): Cancel the bid, since the futures have rocketed skyward after having gone no lower than 3139.50. _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 10:14 a.m.): And now stocks are plummeting. It would appear that 'trade hopes' have faded just a smidgen this morning.

Friday's exuberant but inexplicable leap may have felt encouraging at the time, but a chart that goes back a few months makes the rally look far from impressive. Even so, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt for the moment, since the move was indisputably going their way at the closing bell. It would take a print at x=1491.30, the green line, to trip a theoretical buy signal, but only 1474.80 would be needed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That could set up an appealing trading opportunity intraday, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're eager to play. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:05 a.m. EST): The futures have taken wing this morning and appear bound for a minimum 1489.50. If this Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded, bulls could take heart. Here's the updated chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 11:09 p.m.): Buyers should have been able to reach the 1489.50 target shown in this chart on the first try but failed. Disappointment would fade if they get second wind and take out the 1496.30 'external' peak shown, but until such time as that happens we shouldn't get our hopes too high. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 6:14 p.m.): The futures dove $12 after peaking at 1489.90, four ticks above the target flagged above. That is well shy of the 1496.30 I'd said was needed to turn the intraday charts unambiguously bullish.  I'm going to raise the bar a tad just to be cautious, stipulating that the rally achieve 1503.10, just above the external peak shown in this chart, before I ratchet down my skepticism. Incidentally, a Trading Room denizen reported having used the 1489.50 target to get long and exit the position at the top for a nice profit.  He posted as follows: "Exited the

Let me wish you all the blessing of having many things to be thankful for. Have a warm and happy holiday, surrounded by family, friends and those you hold dear. See you next on Monday.

The New York Composite Index lies within a hair of a trendline that has acted as either support or resistance numerous times since 2017. In this case it is potential resistance and a compelling one at that, just 12 (or so) points from the high achieved Tuesday afternoon. Peter Eliades was the first to call our attention to the trendline, and it has filled us with anticipation since. Drawing a trendline that works predictively is as much art as science, and if it attracts too much attention, that can tend to reduce its effectiveness. There’s no reason why NYA cannot blow past the trendline, but were that to occur we would have to infer that there’s a motherlode of unspent buying power yet to be tapped. There is additional resistance in the form of early 2018’s record high at 13,635. If it too gets shredded by a short-covering stampede, that would put a 15,414 target in play and 14,242 as a minimum objective. One more trading note: If NYA plummets from these levels to 11,896, as scary as that would seem, that’s where we would suggest loading up the truck.

I've presented the 3147.50 target shown in the chart as a challenge to bulls, but based on ten years of price history, we shouldn't doubt that they will make short work of it. I would nonetheless encourage you to consider rABC shorts that utilize the target, provided you know what you are doing. If the trade sets up and triggers in the wee hours, it will enjoy good odds of at least a small payoff; after the opening bell, perhaps not so much. An easy move past 3147.50 would put in play a 3160.25 target, calculated by sliding the point 'A' low down to Nov 6's 3063.00 bottom. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29): The rABC trade triggered around 6:30 a.m. Wednesday at 1348.25, producing a theoretical gain of $100 to $400 per contract, depending on whether you covered the short at p or d. The futures subsequently went nowhere after breaking above the intraday high (aka our point 'C' high). They were continuing to screw the pooch on a very dead Friday.

The wilding spree continues! It has exceeded some key technical levels, although one I'd deemed crucially important months ago and which has kept us on the right side of the trend remains to be achieved.  It's a 283.97 target in AAPL, and it looked like it was being put on hold last week when stocks stumbled out of the gate.  However, Apple shares got second wind on Monday, to put it mildly, and the target now looks like it will be achieved without a significant detour.  Subscribers hold calendar spreads at the 280 strike that have allowed them to leverage a move to the target with little at risk. If you're interested in the details but don't subscribe, click the 'Free Trial' button above and to the right on this page.

The futures were  slipping below the water line Monday evening, threatening to negate the support of a 1454.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support. It is tied to a 1429.50 target given here earlier, although it's possible the downtrend will go no further than p2=1441.90. The bad news is that that is my minimum downside objective for the near term. Clearly, gold cannot swim upstream, not even a little bit, as the stock market continues its by-now historical wilding spree.  Here's a step-by-step forecast for the next couple of weeks that I posted in the chat room. Let's see how I do: "First, a decisive breach of p=1454.40; then, instead of continuing down to D=1429.50, GCZ reverses sharply to trigger a not-unappetizing mechanical short at x=1466.80. But instead of doing what it is supposed to do -- i.e., delivering a quick profit by plunging to p=1454.40 -- it continues higher, breaking above C=1479.20 to turn everyone bullish. The rally will come within 1.20 of some minor ABCD target; then the uptrend, on an overnight spike as usual, sputters out and dies, reversing punitively." (Note: 1436.10 for the February contract is equivalent to the one at 1429.50.) _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:16 p.m.):  Click here for a play-play scenario that I posted last week; and here for a chart that shows how it would play out for the February contract.  So far, price action has gone more or less according to plan. If you're interested only in the bottom line, Feb Gold could fall to 1436.10, but don't be surprised if the little sonofabitch head-fakes first.  It'd take a print at 1496.40 to rouse my enthusiasm once again.