Rick Ackerman

A potentially important rally target at 3069.75 broached here earlier still looms. However, there is another of even larger degree at 3075.75 (see inset) that has come into focus and which needs to be taken into account. Together these two Hidden Pivots would apppear to pose such daunting resistance as to make an easy move past them improbable. Thus, with a potentially tradeable top slightly above, I'll recommend taking a speculative short position using any means that suits your style. Stay tuned to the trading room for more-detailed guidance, since opportunities to get aboard using put options in SPY or DIA could develop intraday. The latter has rally targets at 274.14/274.44, 276.90 and 280.88, but only the last corresponds to the pattern used to project 3075.75. Recall that we have a corresponding target in AAPL at 283.97 that can be used to bet speculatively on an important market top. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 5:26 a.m. EST): The glue-sniffers are running the show, having wafted the futures decisively past 3075.75 in pre-dawn trading. We'll stay out of their way for now, but if you've held a position on the way up, you should be out of 3/4 of it by now. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 4:53 p.m.): Buyers didn't exactly shred the 3075.75 resistance, but they did exceed it by a not inconsequential eight points, and the pullback so far has been shallow. Bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt for now, but let's see how they do on 'turnaround Tuesday' before we resort to wishing them ill.

As predicted, AMZN easily recouped losses incurred during last week's shakedown on earnings news. DaBoyz used the dog-bites-man story of the month -- Same-Day Deliveries Crimp Profits! -- as an opportunity to steal shares from widows and pensioners at fire-sale prices. The trampoline bounce that ensued has tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line (1773.79) and put p2=1862.52 in play as a minimum upside objective for the near term.  The target looks like it's in-the-bag, but call options are too juiced to offer much edge. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5;35 p.m. EST): A so-far mellow correction off Monday's 1815 high looks bound for p=1796.88, or 1787.25 if any lower  (60-minute, a= 1813.25 on 11/5 at 6:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 11:04 p.m.): The selloff reversed from 1788.58, just $1.33 from the correction target given above. The first rally resistance lies at 1803.45 (5-min, A= 1785.52 on 11/1 at 3:05 p.m.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 8:46 a.m.): DaBoyz gapped AMZN past p=1803.45 on zero volume at 5:00 a.m. Nice work, guys. This means D=1818.12 is, like, 99% likely to be reached, probably sooner rather than later. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:28 p.m.): If AMZN continues to fall, you can use this 1754.35 target to bottom-fish._______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 8:08 p.m.): This morning's feint higher turned the hourly chart bullish, but not very. Look for more upside now to 1781.32, or to 1790.73 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13): The stock has gotten boring and no one has mentioned it in the chat room, so I'll be removing it from the home page for a spell.

Gold has been stalled for three months and is getting mighty tiresome. This is notwithstanding an upthrust last week that allowed subscribers who followed my detailed guidance to make a quick $3400 profit on four contracts. The trade was pegged to a 1535.90 target that has helped keep us on the right side of the trend for nearly a month.  If buyers should push past it this week, 1547.60 would be the next stop, and thence 1586.10 (daily chart, A=1412.10 on 8/1). Rather than pretend we have a crystal ball, we'll simply wait to see what bulls can deliver. So far, considering stocks are in the grip of lotus eaters, bullion has held its own. This is encouraging, but don't expect much until the bull run in stocks falters. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:41 p.m. EST): The high and low of gold's dive today fell within the tedious range of the last month and has not damaged the pattern projecting to our aging target at 1535.90. Psychological damage is another matter, since the selloff, possibly gratuitous, has occurred in the space of just one day. But if we stay focused purely on 'technicals', there is not yet any reason to despair. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:42 p.m.): Sure this is depressing. But even if the so-far $100 selloff from early September's high had been three times as bad it wouldn't negate the huge bull move that began from 1208 fifteen months ago.  This nasty correction has a little farther to go before it hits a Hidden Pivot support that could turn gold around. It lies at 1447.50 and can be used to bottom-fish.  It can also serve as a minimum downside target for the moment.

We gutted it out last week to stay long through a swoon that left GDX little changed from a week earlier. The partial profit we took on half the position gives us 200 shares with an adjusted cost basis of 26.77. Friday's punk performance lagged physical gold, which was up nearly $5 at one point. GDX never went 'green', but it is not likely sit still if bullion's rally resumes or picks up steam in the week ahead.  In any event, offer 100 shares to close for 28.60, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the position at 26.78. If GDX takes out the 26.18 point 'C' low of the pattern, we'll look to re-enter at the first good opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:54 p.m.): We were stopped out at 26.78 for no loss or gain. GDX has yet to break down as badly as gold futures, although this will come as scant consolation to those who've held a long position in this vehicle. I'll recommend waiting for a washout down to this 25.22 target before buying. We can adjust if GDX reverses without falling that far. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13): I've asked for help crowdsourcing an opportune 'buy' point for this banana slug. If you're keen to trade it, please leave an actionable idea of your own in either of the chat rooms. ______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 7:44 p.m.): Bears' unimpressive struggle to push GDX lower is starting to seem pathetic. This is ostensibly bullish, but I have little enthusiasm for simply taking a flier. If there's good interest in this stock in the chat room, I'll happily contribute to the discussion and vet actionable ideas.  ______ UPDATE (Nov 18): There was just one mention of GDX in the two chat rooms today -- by 'Johnfed', a new subscriber who

We took a small position in Nov8 21 calls Friday, paying 0.14 for four of them (or a multiple thereof).  The trade was predicated on an expected turn from the 19.15 target shown. This Hidden Pivot support is not of the finest pedigree, since the A-B impulse leg from which it was derived has a point 'B' low that is about as sausage-y as they get. Even so, the target looks good enough to warrant a small, speculative bet, and it would be a little spooky if VXX doesn't turn from somewhere near here by mid-week.  The fact that it closed below the target, however, attests to the relentlessness of the wafting rally in the broad averages, including the S&P 500 index tracked by this vehicle. As with all option trades we do in VXX, you should have risked no more than you can afford to lose painlessly. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:52): VXX rose just enough to keep our calls alive. Offer half of them for 0.30 g-t-c, or slightly more than twice what we paid for them, as is our custom. I still don't mind being long calls pegged to Friday's expiration. I sure as hell would not be short them for 0.09. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 11:13 p.m.):  I'll suggest rolling into Nov 15 calls, again risking on this speculative bet no more than you can afford to lose comfortably.

I rarely update my dollar forecast because 1) my very-long-term outlook is unshakably bullish, and 2) subscribers do not trade it. Nevertheless, the dollar sold off hard last month, raising mild concerns about whether the long-tern trend has changed. A glance at the weekly chart, however, reveals little technical damage. Regardless, I'll need to start treating the chart as I would some trading vehicle I don't care about. Strictly speaking, a further decline touching the green line would put p=92.67 in play as a downside target. I refer to it as my worst-case scenario in the chart, but in fact 85.67, the pattern's 'D' target, would be the actual worst-case possibility. That is unimaginable to me, and so I've put it out of mind.  'Impossibilities' aside, I'll be watching for 'counterintuitive' buying signals each time DXY takes out a new low on the weekly chart. The nearest of them lies at 97.03, and thence at 95.84. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8): Interesting that a market as vast as the dollar should rally following a cheesy fake-out low that exceeded a previous one by a few cents.  That is what has happened, however, as this chart makes clear.  The rally would look more sincere if and when it exceeds the external peak at 98.65. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 6:44 p.m.): The greenback has taken a moderate fall after going no higher than 98.54, just 12 cents shy of our bullish trigger price. The weakness would become significant if it exceeds the 97.03 low recorded on August 9.

Winning rABC trades seem to be everywhere we look. Because that sounds too good to be true, it behooves us to scrutinize each and every rABC set-up closely in order to ascertain the following: 1) Was there enough time to manually enter the order and execute it; 2) once triggered, did the stock or futures contract return to our stop-limit bid in a way that would have filled; 3) would be have been stopped out on the first try; and, 4) did we diligently follow all of the rules applicable to rABC trades? With those questions in mind, pay close attention to the set-up in AAPL toward the end of this session. Could you have done this trade yourself? As you hone your Hidden Pivot chops, that question is the one that will matter most, not whether your teacher is able to execute trades that look impressive at first glance. (On that note, I’ll mention that we exited the AAPL trade before it really took off.)

Shares rose Wednesday on the ho-hum news of a third rate-cut in 2019. Will it be the last? Of course not; it's only a matter of time before Fed chief Powell dons his well-worn knee pads and gives Wall Street and the President whatever they want. For now, though, Powell & Co. would have us believe that the U.S. economy is doing fine and that there is no urgent reason for more easing. That's baloney, of course, even if their little white lie is somewhat mitigated by the flurry of activity in the housing sector. Refinancing and home sales have picked up with 30-year mortgages down at 3.75%, and we can be confident that real estate will remain buoyant, at least, if rates continue to fall. A point lost on the dim bulbs who report on such things is that it will come at a cost. For although marginally qualified buyers may finally have an opportunity to "own" a home, they will be getting in the door at inflated prices. This is bound to become burdensome when the next recession hits, especially if home prices fall even a little, never mind significantly. As for all of that re-fi money, that's how the Fed shakes dollars from trees to pay for free lunches, and there's no denying that it will add to household liquidity. But don't expect consumers to spend it all, or even most of it, on bling.  They can sniff a recession coming just as you and I can, and, fully ten years into a recovery cycle, they are not fooled by the stock market's autumnal exuberance. Puttin' on the Ritz This just in: We see that the usual suspects have seized control of AAPL in after-hours trading. The flurry of short-covering due to bullish Q3 earnings news has

I drum-rolled AAPL Sunday night because it was stalled in a dangerous place, an inch from a crucial resistance at 248.48 (see tout, below). The stock holds the key to the bull market, which is all but certain to continue as long as Apple shares are moving higher. Coincidentally, AAPL and the broad averages somewhat diverged on Monday, with the former getting socked for a 2.23% loss as indexes closed little changed.  I expect this 'divergence' to be reconciled shortly in bulls' favor, but you never know. In any event, the yellow flag is out.