Rick Ackerman

Although some notable long-term bond bulls are close to throwing in the towel as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, the chart suggests the bull market begun nearly 40 years ago still has farther to go.  Yields on the long bond settled Friday at 2.41%, up from 1.90% in August, while T-Notes have gone from 1.43% to 1.93% over the same time. The rallies have been impressive if not to say scary, since they have subjected hundreds of trillions of dollars of borrowings to a deflationary turn of the screw. The burden of debt promises to lighten before it becomes fatal , however, when the uptrend in interest rates reverses. Is This a Good Thing? Hidden Pivot analysis says relief could come soon, with the 10-Year topping at 1.984% and the 30-Year at 2.477%. How far might they fall thereafter?  My forecast calls for major lows at, respectively, 0.84% and 1.64%. This implies that the negative-rate weirdness of Europe will not afflict U.S. debt. Is this a good thing? Don't ask the 'experts', because they don't understand negative yields any better than the news media hacks who write about it.  Sub-zero yields reflect the central banks' increasingly desperate efforts since the 1990-91 recession to avoid a catastrophic deflation. Predicting they will fail is not exactly rocket science, even if not one observer in a hundred expects this.

Although a Warren victory would be an unqualified disaster for the stock market and, arguably, for America, it's harder to imagine what a Bloomberg presidency might look like. The left-leaning billionaire entered the race on Friday by filing for the Alabama primaries. This is a change of heart from a few months ago, when the news mogul announced he had no plans to run. He has stepped in because he's concerned that none of the leading Democrats could beat Trump. He may be right, especially since Warren shot herself in the foot -- and  chest, and head -- last week by spelling out exactly how she would pay for 'Medicare for All'. How's That Again, Liz? If there were any doubts that her ideas were hatched in the fever swamps of socialism, they have been dispelled by what she revealed of Warrencare. For starters, and as we already knew, everyone in America with an employer-based health plan would lose it. Billionaires like Bloomberg supposedly would pay for it, but if funding came up short, policy tweaks would make up the difference. How's that again?  Here's Warren in her own wonky words: “I will use available policy tools, which include global budgets, population-based budgets and automatic rate reductions to bring it back in line.” Are you reassured? Even Piketty, the French leftist whose ideas Warren has borrowed from promiscuously and plagiarized, must be embarrassed by such claptrap. Bloomberg, at 77, is a year younger than Sanders but robust and seemingly in good health, so age would not be a major factor. He could run a much better race against Trump than any of the current Democratic frontrunners -- Warren, Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg. Unlike them, although Bloomberg is a meddlesome liberal who would want to intrude heavily on every area of

I'd suggested rolling the calls we held last week to this Friday's expiration, but I'll track the trade only if I hear from at least two subscribers who did it. Otherwise, let's plan on buying if and when VXX falls to 15.66, the next bear-market target of consequence. This Hidden Pivot is more compelling than the last (19.15) because the A-B impulse leg that created it actually exceeded a major low.  There are no precise confirmations at p, but the pattern did generate a mechanical short at the green line in August that would have been very profitable for a seller of call premium. (No one has ever made a dime buying put options on VXX even though it is falling, falling, falling most of the time.) It's hard to believe VXX could fall as low as 15.66, but that's what happens when a bull market never sells off for more than a day-and-a-half like this one. ______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 10:20 p.m.):  With sellers dominating the stock market lately, it seems unlikely that VXX will fall to the 15.66 target any time soon. We'll keep it mind nonetheless but forego any trading in this vehicle unless the opportunity looks exceptional. _______ UPDATE (Nov 26, 8:02 p.m.):  The 15.66 target is once again within easy distance, so plan accordingly.  If it's hit today, buy four Dec 6 16 calls. They should be trading for around 0.40, but pay no more than 0.43 unless I tell you otherwise. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30): More detours and delays. Do nothing further for now, since we only buy this sucker-bait when it is hitting significant Hidden Pivot lows. _______UPDATE (Dec 13): Based on timely recommendations I made in the chat room, I have established a tracking position that includes four (or a multiple thereof)

The Morning Line commentary for today references a 3107 trendline target for this vehicle, but we may be able to come up with a more precise top using Hidden Pivots. The trendline connects two peaks, but with an alternative second peak that would raise the trendline shown by about six points to around 3113. It is rising with a slope of about $3 per day. Now here's where the analysis gets interesting. The Hidden Pivot chart (see inset) projects a target at 3128.50 that has been validated by today's precise pullback from p=3097.75.  This implies that if and when the futures close above p, or trade more than a few points above it intraday, they will become a good bet to reach 3128.50 exactly. If it happens on Wednesday, that would be in nearly perfect alignment with the trendline. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13, 4:20 p.m.): The trendline will come in Thursday at around 3121, which is certainly not out of reach. Be ready to get short there, but if you'd prefer to buy put options instead, use 311.80 as a target in DIA. It is tied to the same trendline. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:05 p.m.): The trendline will come in at around 3125.00 on Friday. Putting the DIA trendline target aside, there's a Hidden Pivot target at 280.88 that you could short with a very tight stop-loss. Here's the chart.

So when is Mr. Market going to wipe the stupid grin from bulls' faces? Soon, would be my guess. Check out the trendline in the chart. A pisher it ain't. It connects the peaks of two major rallies and goes back more than seven months. And here are two more trendlines that are arguably even more daunting.  The first shows the New York Composite Index (NYA) and comes from Peter Eliades.  It first appeared here more than a month ago. The second shows the Industrial Average. If these trendlines fail to stop the bullish wilding spree dead in its tracks, then technical analysis is just toad entrails and tea leaves. All three resistance points lie not far above current levels, implying that the manic rally in U.S. stocks could continue into next week. 'Freaky Friday' is not usually a reversal day, so we should brace for more of the same, at least for now. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:19 p.m.): DJIA popped through its respective trendline like it wasn't there, hitting a high nearly 200 points above it before settling at the midpoint of the day's range. This is quite impressive, and there is no denying it is very bullish. Let's see how NYA and the E-Mini S&Ps (see below) do.

It often seem as though trade-deal news drives the markets, but how could this be so when we all know that China will never, ever change its crooked ways? Not that it matters. If Trump hadn't started a tariff war, it would have made little difference in the way a bull market now in its eleventh year behaves; stocks would still be trading about where they are. The only difference is that the con-artists who make their living levitating stocks would have found a different story to drive the short-covering rallies that alone are capable of boosting the broad averages past old highs. 'Phase One' Forever! When we read in the Wall Street Journal that shares have risen because traders supposedly were optimistic on a given day about the tariff talks, we understand that this is poppycock and not even remotely true. Even so, the hair-trigger reflex of institutional investors is to buy stocks whenever there is the faintest bullish buzz, and to dump them the instant China responds with incredulity. Wednesday's earth-shaking story was that a meeting to enact phase one of the deal has been pushed out to December. Stocks greeted this discouraging mid-day tidbit with spasms that lasted for all of ten minutes; then they settled back into their wonted, bullish groove. At this rate, the talks will drag on indefinitely without producing any tangible results. Although it has been clear for some time that this is what both sides want, it was not until this afternoon's gratuitous spasms that investors revealed it is what they want as well.

We worked the lesser charts artfully during our hour together, producing a string of small winners -- and one small loser -- that could have added up to a $1000 day. Once again, we pored over each trade with a magnifying glass to make certain the trades were actually do-able and that there were no stop-outs hidden from view in those deceptive spaces between bars. Using rABC set-ups, can we read price action so well that we are able to get inside the heads of other traders? Check out the material on ‘psychoanalysis’ for a persuasive answer.

The S&Ps and Nasdaq 100 have fallen moderately after overshooting important Hidden Pivot rally targets on Monday that I might have warranted as impenetrable.  This is bullish, as is the fact that AAPL, our #1 bellwether, still has an outstanding target about 10% above current levels.  Even so, and despite the fact that the U.S. economy has "never looked better," we shouldn't be too trusting of the rally. The chart shows that VXX, which tracks short term volatility in the S&P 500, may have reached an important bottom. If it is about to reverse, that would imply stocks are about to fall. I trust this indicator more than I do all others at the moment.

So-far moderate selling in after-hours trading stalled precisely at p=3070.75, but we should look for a move down to at least d=3063.50 if that Hidden Pivot midpoint support gives way. If you want to bottom-fish against the trend, a stop-loss as tight as 3062.75 should suffice. My bias remains bullish due to the 10-point overshoot of a 3075.75 rally target drum-rolled here earlier.  The target was sufficiently clear and compelling that it should have repelled buyers, and precisely so. The fact that it didn't is evidence that they are still out there, eager to jump aboard but in need of a breather.  Let's see whether a fall to d=3063.50 provides one. If it gets trashed, that would shift the minor trend to bearish. ______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 11:01 p.m.): The futures rallied 15 points after bottoming at 3063.00, two ticks below the target furnished above. The move was worth as much as $750 contract, but only one subscriber has reported acting on it so far.