Rick Ackerman

The 50th anniversary of the moon landing gave Americans a chance to reflect on one of humankind's greatest technological achievements. And yet, for all of the digital-age benefits the space program brought us, there are reasons to doubt that we could muster a consensus to continue exploring the solar system and outer space. Even the word "we" in this context is fraught with conflict, and still moreso Neil Armstrong's "giant leap for mankind." Is mankind capable of making such a leap again? Of course, anyone even posing such a question would be flogged in the public square for not using the gender-neutral "humankind". That, unfortunately, is the spirit of this age, and even if we could get past semantics and build a space ship capable of interplanetary travel, there are no guarantees we could find a crew with sufficiently diverse ethnic backgrounds and sexual preferences to get the vessel off the launching pad. In a recent essay online, Daniel Greenfield skewered those who would inhibit America's can-do spirit with tendentious concerns over political correctness, climate change and all the rest. "Fifty years ago, a nation that we now know was racist, didn't care about the environment and drank too much soda, landed on the moon," he notes. For the full essay click here.      

Add to stock market bulls' wall of worry a drop in West Coast home prices for the first time in seven years. This is part of a larger trend that saw U.S. home sales down 2.2% compared to a year ago. That's the 16th straight month of annual sales declines, even as mortgage rates have fallen since last October from 4.95% to 3.75%. Some observers profess to be mystified, since the economy appears to be going great guns. Unemployment is near 50-year lows, wages are rising and GDP growth has been solid. The trouble is, home prices are so inflated that first-time buyers, even those with good jobs, have been priced out of the market. The fortunate few employed by Google, Facebook, Amazon et al. who can theoretically afford to buy a home in the Silicon Valley, Seattle or L.A. are understandably skittish about paying top dollar in a bull market so mature as this one. They can see what the rest of us see -- i.e., a pronounced economic slowdown in China and Europe that is certain to spread to the U.S. As long as they believe there's no great rush to buy, home prices will continue to weaken. If the bull market in stocks were going to boost home sales, it would have happened already, since the broad averages are trading at or near record highs. If shares move higher nevertheless, it will only heighten fears of a bubble ready to pop.

Once again our focus was on so called ‘reverse’ ABC trades, or rABCs. The pickings were slim on a slow day as we attempted to force entry in several vehicles, including futures contracts and some high-priced stocks. Since this type of trade requires the use of a buy- or sell-stop to get long/short, we used the lesser charts to determine whether trades that looked like winners actually would have been stopped out on the first or second try. The rABC pattern continues to show excellent potential for delivering profitable trades on days when there would seem to be little to do.

Stocks continue to move effortlessly higher, although there seems to be little enthusiasm driving the rally. Sellers appear to have abandoned the playing field, and who can blame them? The last time they caught a favorable breeze was in May, when the Dow actually finished significantly lower for two consecutive days on several occasions. Perhaps the 27,463 Hidden Pivot rally target proffered elsewhere on the home page (see DJIA tout below) will provide a respite?

The bull market has been chugging along for more than ten years, so there's little point in pretending we can know precisely where or when it will end. However, neither should we ignore the fact that the Dow, having traded as high as 27,399, is mere millimeters from a key 'Hidden Pivot' resistance at 27,463.  As a practical matter, because this is a logical place for a top of at least middling importance to form, we can lay in a small put position just to have a horse in the race.  Tune to the Rick's Picks Trading Room for more-detailed guidance in the week ahead. We'll be looking to buy a small quantity of put options with 3-4 weeks left on them and which sell for 0.80 or less. Use 274.42 for a target in DIA, since it is closely equivalent to the one at 27,463 given above. _______ UPDATE (Jul 24, 7:47 pm.): Nibbling on some puts. Check my 19:42 Wednesday post in the chat room for details. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:25 p.m.): The DIA 23 Aug 255 puts I suggested buying at prices down to 0.35 have since traded no lower than 0.42.  Please let me know in the chat room how you've fared. ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 9:48 p.m.): Only one subscriber reported doing the trade, so I am not establishing a tracking position. For the record, with stocks falling hard today, he said he exited half of his puts for twice what he'd paid. This means he now owns 50% of the original position at no cost. Today's plunge should continue down to at least 26,755, but if that midpoint support is busted, a 'D' target at 26,504 would be in play (15-min, a=27,220 on July 31 at 1:45 pm.m EDT). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1,

The geniuses who get paid to throw other people's money at a small handful of stocks appear to have narrowed their task down to an irreducible minimum in 2019. Just four tech biggies -- Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook -- have accounted for fully 20% of the S&P 500's total return so far this year, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Portfolio managers at Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, State Street et al. evidently think and act as one to make certain the game always moves in their favor. By sticking together and even doubling down on companies they might otherwise shun, it's possible to pump stocks full of hot air even when prospects for those companies take a negative turn. For instance, weakening iPhone sales in the U.S. and China have revealed how far Apple has declined as an innovator. Clueless about the next big thing, the Cupertino firm earlier this year drum-rolled a planned leap into a streaming content business so saturated with high-quality "product" that even Netflix, the 800-pound gorilla, seems to be losing steam. As for Facebook, Putin probably enjoys more trust worldwide than Zuckerberg. The latter has so many enemies on Capitol Hill that his proposed cryptocurrency, Libra, may not even get off the ground. Bet on Microsoft The shares of both companies have climbed vertically since early June, so it's safe to say that their respective problems are not even a remote concern to Wall Street's vaunted stock-pickers. Boeing's problems, on the other hand, amount to a full-blown scandal -- one that is liable to produce tort claims well in excess of the $5 billion the company ostentatiously set aside recently following two 737 Max crashes that killed 346 passengers. Even so, the aircraft manufacturer's shares are within 20% of all-time highs, defying gravity simply

You should be out of the long position initiated last Thursday at 2985.50. Numerous subscribers reported doing the trade, which was showing a theoretical profit of around $4900 at Friday's highs. The nasty selloff into the close would have reduced your gains by as much as $2,000, since I'd advised a wide stop-loss at 2971.00 in order to swing for the fences with the contract that remained. Please let me know in the chat room how you fared, since Rick's Picks P&L performance is based solely on what subscribers report, not on hypothetical trades. Looking just ahead, use the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum downside target. The stock market looked like hell all day, and it is not an encouraging sign that it was unable to deliver on a swing-for-the-fences play that just a couple of weeks ago would have been a shoe-in. But before we assume stocks are entering a weak phase (or worse),  let's see how well the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot support fares. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 6:25 p.m. ET): So much for that bearish target at 2962.25. The futures reversed after having gone no lower than 2969 and now appear bound for 3028.75. A pullback to 2984.25 on Wednesday would trigger a mechanical 'buy', stop 2969.25. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:31 p.m.): The futures have traded no higher than 3029.50 so far, so the Hidden Pivot resistance worked, and precisely. Some subscribers evidently got short, but I will need to hear from a few of you before I establish a tracking position. In any event, partial-profit-taking would have been warranted on the 28-point plunge that followed the high. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 9:58 p.m.): The bounce into the close tripped a 'mechanical' short to 2939.50  at x=2983.  I'd suggest spectating, since the low of the

Traders dumped stocks in the final hour on Friday, hinting that there actually is a threshold at which bad news begins to matter. For one, Black Rock, arguably the smartest money on the planet, reported a 7% drop in profits. If they can't cut it, is there any hope for the rest of us?  In the Middle East, Iran was doing more than merely rattling its saber: agents of the mullahs boarded and seized a British-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the threat to global oil supplies. The U.S. and Iran continue to insist they don't want war, but no one is offering any guarantees. Worst of all, the Fed was delivering the kind of news we are supposed to sell: a rate cut of 25 basis points is coming in July.  Since investors' earlier exuberance was focused on rumors of a 50-basis-point cut, it's a wonder the Dow Industrials didn't fall by 400 points rather than a mere 68. A Transparent Ponzi It is predictable that investors, even blinded by greed as they are, will eventually see where the Fed's transparent Ponzi scheme is taking us. By monetizing even more debt, Powell would purport to cushion the U.S. against the effects of an economic implosion that has been gathering force in China and Europe. All he is accomplishing, in fact, is pumping U.S. stocks full of hot gas, including growing leakage from China and Europe. The scheme will likely work for a while, assuming one can contrive to view the gratuitous inflation of U.S. stocks and bonds ahead of a global economic slump as somehow working. Although further enabling this fallacy could produce a veneer of benefits for yet another month or two, only a fool could believe the supposed benefits will last. Most foolish of all

The futures came down hard Friday, but only after they'd rallied sharply above the 16.555 'hidden' resistance I'd proffered as a minimum upside objective. The September contract has used up all of the Hidden Pivot targets that can be derived from the daily chart, so I've switched to the weekly chart for a longer-term perspective. It yields a target at 20.985 that lies 30% above these levels, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 17.423 than can serve as a minimum objective for now. If it is easily exceeded, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 20.985. These numbers are not exact because the pattern from which they were derived is a composite of highs and lows from various contract months going back more than three years. Also, the A-B impulse leg is weaker than we would have preferred, since it failed to get past the series of 'external' peaks recorded in 2013-14. This makes a move into the low 20s less than the near-certainty it would have been if 2016's move off the launching pad had been stronger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:00 p.m.): It's unlikely sellers are spent, since the futures have breached a clear downside target at 16.170 this evening (30-min, A=16.640 on 7/30 at 3:30 p.m.). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1, 6:50 p.m.): Buyers generated a minor impulse leg, but they'll need to push the futures above 16.478 to put the 17.020 rally target of this pattern in play.