Rick Ackerman

For years, gold's corrections have been brutal, and that is why many erstwhile bulls have not rushed to buy this rally. They have instead been waiting for a nasty pullback in order to load up at bargain prices. But Mr Market has not obliged. Instead, retracements have been shallow and rallies steep. The latter have often occurred after-hours, but in one recent instance via a trampoline bounce early in the day. By playing hard-to-get, gold is showing the most encouraging signs we have seen in a long, long while. This evening the August Comex futures have uncorked a 25-pointer, impaling a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1444.40 that is tied to a 1504.00 target first identified here weeks ago.  That is my minimum upside objective at the moment and it should be yours as well if you trade this vehicle. If you want to see how some pros are boldly trading the move so far using GDX call options, stop by the Rick's Picks Trading Room. You can access it by taking a free two-week trial subscription. Simply provide your name and email address at the top of the home page and you will have instant access to the entire site. No credit card is necessary. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:17 p.m.): Gold would need to fall $45 to invalidate the 1504 rally target noted above (click here for the chart). Stranger things have happened, but even that would not negate the bullish look of the daily chart.  In any event, we'll avoid the fray ahead of the Fed's "momentous" announcement concerning an expected 25-basis-point easing._______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:07 p.m.): The moderate selloff tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1409.08, stop 1384.70. The trade is somewhat riskier than we should prefer, since the pullback from the top of the

The rABC trade, especially in conjunction with ‘counterintuitive’ set-ups, has been a hot ticket for us lately. It was the focus of this session and, amazingly, worked in virtually every situation we considered during our hour together. Some of the trades were in cheapie stocks and produced theoretical gains of $50 or less. But the encouraging thing is that set-ups like these occur all day long in hundreds, if not thousands, of stocks. FYI, the E-Mini S&P trade stopped out with a theoretical gain minutes after the session ended.

I have significantly higher targets  outstanding, but for trading purposes and to get a precise handle on the near-term, I'd suggest focusing on the relatively minor Hidden Pivot at 3051.75 shown in the inset. The pattern could set up two trading opportunities: a mechanical buy on a pullback to the green line (2985.50, stop 2963.25); and a short from 3051.75, stop 3053.25. We'll consider a 'reverse' (rABC) for the second trade if and when 3051.75 is reached, but it would require a small pattern created at the presumptive tail-end of the rally to provide a good entry signal. Tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time if you care. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:07 p.m. ET): The mechanical trade triggered at 2989.50 and carries theoretical risk per contract of $1100.  If two or more subscribers are aboard and let me know in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position. Half of the position should be exited at 3007.63, worked o-c-o with the stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:47 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade advised above triggered in the final moments of Wednesday's session and is showing a theoretical gain of $900 per contract at the moment.  The futures are at 3003.50, slightly shy of the midpoint pivot at 3007.63 where I'd suggested exiting half. However, you should do so now, cashing out 75% of the original position in order to nail down a nice gain. Assuming one contract remains from an original four, use the 3051.75 target to exit, making your offer one-cancels-other with a stop-loss at 2963.25. If the trade concludes as planned, the total profit on the position would be $6000.  Several subscribers reported doing the trade. Please keep me apprised in the Trading Room.______ UPDATE (6:06 p.m): Moments after I sent out that last

Facebook gets deservedly bad press, and yet the stock is rapidly approaching record highs. The latest headline suggests the company's planned foray into cryptocurrencies will be stillborn. Trump's administration has cited national security concerns, but the real story is that no one trusts Zuckerberg any longer. Every time he gets caught violating users' privacy in some appalling new way, he offers a perfunctory apology and then returns to business as usual. "We'll try to do better," he invariably says, recalling the Twilight Zone episode in which aliens from outer space present humanity with a book titled How to Serve Man that turns out to be a cookbook. Another negative Facebook story this week that failed to deter exuberant investors concerned the FTC's decision to fine the company $5 billion for past privacy violations that went uncorrected. This is just pocket change, equal to about three months' revenues.  It works out to about $29 for every U.S. subscriber, but don't hold your breath waiting for a check, since such fines never seem to find their way into the pockets of the aggrieved. You can be certain there will be more multibillion dollar levies in the future, if only because Facebook is perceived by its inquisitors as being able to pay them without missing a beat. Wall Street understands this, which explains why investors cynically thumb their noses at every reported instance of evildoing by the company. Like a Government Zuckerberg has all but begged regulators to tell him what he must do to make them happy. Obviously, he is confident he can get around any new rules while seeming to obey them. But we are all clueless as to how we might rein in Facebook. Zuckerberg has allowed that Facebook, with nearly two billion users, is more like a government than

The top of September Silver's spike on Tuesday fell three cents shy of an important 'external' peak recorded back in March. Recall that healthy rallies generate fresh impulse legs with each new thrust. This rally has failed to do so, at least so far, but bulls still deserve the benefit of the doubt because the futures ended the session above the midpoint of their intraday range.  If they are going to impulse above the 15.765 peak, however, the sooner the better, since the longer it takes and the more labored the effort, the less underlying strength there is to be inferred. Regardless, bulls are certain to meet resistance at 15.840, a Hidden Pivot target on the daily chart that comes from A=14.700 on June 10.  There is an additional resistance a nickel lower, at 15.835, from the peak just above our 'external' benchmark (see inset). _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:13 p.m. ET): Buyers surpassed the 15.840 resistance with such ease that a test of resistance at 16.470, where September Silver double topped earlier this year, seems all but inevitable. If the rally exceeds them as easily, it would greatly strengthen the case that a powerful new bull market has begun. More immediately, look for a short-term finishing stroke to 16.190, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown in this chart. _____ UPDATE (Jul 18, 9:48 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded the 16.190 'hidden' resistance and now appear all but certain to hit the next at 16.555.  An easy move past it would put the September contract on course for a shot at a 17.867 peak recorded last June.

[The following was contributed by Farmer, a subscriber from Nairobi who is active in the Rick's Picks chat room.] Of all the lies we read reported without question by the news media, one of the most egregious is that China's GDP is still running hot at over 6% annually. It's an astonishing number for such a large economy and even more incredible during a global economic slowdown. With semiconductor sales crashing, alarm bells being rung by courier companies and freight, and China auto sales crashing as a backdrop during a trade war, we are being treated to fantasy GDP prints of current and expected growth over there that border on the absurd. All good wars are fought with propaganda of course and this one will be no exception. But for those with a background in economics, we would be remiss to ignore the close correlation between falling auto sales and recession and therefore between general retail consumption and economic slowdowns. Such statistics are maintained in developed countries just for the purposes of their ability to predict contractions. So given what we do know about the Chinese auto markets we can infer quite a bit about the consumption patterns that are currently in play. And we can easily conclude we are being fed a load of bollocks when related statistics are coming up sunshine even as known (and provable data) on imports and exports declines are now nearing double digits. There is not going to be a consumption-led recovery in China during a marked manufacturing decline and widespread job losses. On the contrary, there will be signs of panic and rising credit distress, which I might suggest is already taking place, and it will become acute should Trump carry through with all the planned tariffs. Bogus Commie Data So hold your

Minor and middling Hidden Pivot targets have shown little resistance to the rally, which has gained a steady 15-20 points a day mostly due to short-covering, low volume and the absence of dedicated sellers. Most immediately there is the 3012.50 target we've been using to keep us comfortably aligned with the trend. I still expect it to show some stopping power, but don't be shocked if it doesn't. Short there with a tight stop-loss, provided you've made money on the way to it. Above this 'hidden resistance' sits another target broached here earlier, an ambitious one at 3114.50. Like virtually every other major or minor rally target we've used over the years, it must be reckoned a shoe-in to be reached. But based purely on the look of the chart and the very labored penetration of the 2923 midpoint pivot, it would appear that an ascent to 3114.50 is not quite a done deal._______ UPDATE (Jul 10, 9:23 p.m. ET): The futures popped to a marginal new high at 3007.50, five points shy of our target. The shallow correction since suggests it will be reached soon, but any higher would put another at 3051.75 in play. (60-min, A= 2917.75 on 6/27). _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 5:30 p.m.): The futures spent a remarkably boring Friday head-butting the 3012.50 target before short covering drove the September contract to close two points above it. This means the uptrend is likely to continue -- most immediately to at least 3029.75, the secondary pivot associated with the 3151.75 target.

By signaling a move toward easing, Powell has made ready to cushion the U.S. against an economic slowdown that has been gathering force around the world. Although it is never wise to fight the Fed, we should be very guarded this time, scanning the horizon for signs of monetary-policy fissures. They are not likely to be obvious right away, since loosening will initially have a bullish impact on stocks. The mere prospect of a rate cut has already spiked the Dow Industrials above 27,000 for the first time, and the rally appears to be gathering force, presumably ahead of a blowoff top by late summer or early autumn. It will increasingly draw capital from outside the U.S., since the economies of Asia and Europe are deteriorating rapidly. China's attempts to stimulate domestic spending have failed, and unsold cars are piling up on the lots. As for Germany, the erstwhile economic engine of Europe, its GDP most recently grew at an annualized rate of 0.7%. Don't Get Trapped The U.S. is not an economic island, and GDP growth is certain to slow as America's major trading partners sink into recession. It seems predictable nonetheless that U.S. stocks will continue to move higher, at least for a while, for the reasons noted above. This will occur with further softening in interest rates and GDP falling. Wall Street may be able to pretend for yet another few months that the U.S. will skirt recession. But when rates on Ten-Year Treasurys drop below 1% and head into negative territory sometime in 2020, the jig will be up. At that point there will be no denying that America's economy has fallen into the same liquidity trap that has long vexed Japan and which has spread to Europe, if not yet China. The resulting epiphany will

I hesitate to use the word 'ominous', but the S&P 500 (shown here in ETF form) is close to generating a very bearish stochastic signal on the long-term chart. When ascending price peaks are matched by descending stochastic peaks, this is often a harbinger of trouble. In this case, there are not the usual two tops headed toward such a divergence, but three, each diverging relative to the other two. A simple way to interpret this is to say that the S&Ps have been unable to get as overbought with each successive, record peak. The implication is that traders/investors have grown less enthusiastic about buying as the S&Ps have achieved a series of record highs spaced weeks apart. What to Watch For The divergence would become menacing if the blue line were to roll down through the red line. This would occur if, over the next several weeks, each new price bar closes on successive Fridays toward the lower end of the bar as the S&Ps go higher or sideways. Alternatively, if the rally continues for a couple more weeks, with Friday closes toward the upper end of each bar, that would negate the divergence and turn the stochastic indicator benign (or at least in more felicitous agreement with the uptrend). We won't know for at least another 2-3 weeks which is about to occur, but because a third diverging peak could have such dire implications, the chart is worth monitoring closely. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14): Friday's close at the very top of last week's price bar diminished the odds of a bearish stochastic divergence like the one described above. Another strong close this week and the chart would look much less threatening.