Rick Ackerman

Boeing is finally breaking down, and some of the institutionally favored "lunatic stocks" such as GOOG and AMZN are struggling for loft. Check out my touts for these stocks and a few others for downside targets if the broad averages should relapse as the week draws to a close. Air pockets in some stocks that I track look pretty scary. A trade deal with China could always surprise, but this seems a longshot bet at this point, since the Chinese position reportedly has hardened in response to pressure from Trump.

Three weeks after I projected a fall to 53.60, Lyft has touched that number and gone as low as 52.78. The stock will have another chance to pick up support slightly below, at 52.27, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, but a decisive breach would put a 41.54 target in play. That would represent a 53% drop from the opening day high of 88.60 and a 21.5% drop from the current price of 52.90. Uber is unlikely to fall as much percentage-wise after it begins trading on Friday simply because Lyft's experience is certain to discourage the repetition of the wild excesses that greeted LYFT's first day of trading on March 29. Uber shares are expected to open in the range $44-$50, representing a valuation of $80 billion to $90 billion. If they open in the middle of that range, near $47, a 21.5% drop over the next couple of months would bring it down to 37.13.  These targets are just guesstimates, but you should jot them down anyway, since my strong hunch is that they WILL be achieved. _______ UPDATE (May 14, 8:09 a.m. ET): Uber has tanked nearly 20% since its IPO debut two days ago at 44.50. Morgan Stanley is taking heat for this, but only from investors who could have seen it coming with a little common sense and some technical analysis. The stock ended Tuesday in a moderate dead-cat bounce, but it should fall anew to at least 34.92 if my back-of-the-napkin calculations prove correct. _____ UPDATE May 19, 10:46 p.m.): Don't believe the rally in either stock.  It's no surprise that the greedy dirtballs who held shares before they began to trade should want to distribute stock shortly thereafter, since they obviously got it wrong.

How far can we budge from our goal of never risking more than $1 to make $3? This relationship has always been held as crucial to Hidden Pivot trading, but suppose we are ‘certain’ of a trend reversal at D and want to fade the target even if this costs us some pain? That is what I’m suggesting here, so you’ll want to pay close attention to the first 15 or so minutes of the lesson. We also stalked mechanical trades with an eye toward doing many more of them on charts of smaller degree.

Requiring buyers to hit 1293.20 before we give gold the time of day has paid off once more by keeping us from getting sucked in by this morning's ill-fated rally. The futures hit 1292.80 before doing what they always do -- i.e., turning tail with a vengeance. The selloff so far has amounted to $11, but because of our 1293.20 stipulation, we were not among the bulls who got trapped by unwarranted enthusiasm. The chart (inset) shows new downside levels and targets. The lowest of them lies at 1245.40, and it closely corresponds to a bigger-picture target at 1244 that aired here earlier. This Hidden Pivot support will become my minimum downside projection once gold has bounced from yet another Hidden Pivot support at 1262.70 that has kept us properly cautious for nearly a month.

Sellers exceeded the 2865.75 downside target shown, implying they are not yet done. The overshoot was just 3.25 points, but that's sufficient for us to infer that the rally is corrective and therefore, at some level below 2938.25, an opportune short sale. Granted, there's room to raise the point 'A' high a tad to produce a lower 'D' that would have precisely contained the selloff. But the one I've used is too clear and compelling to ignore, and that's why I am relying on it to give me an accurate read on the dominant trend. Alternatively, however, and just in case, a thrust above C=2938.25 would be warning bears to dive for cover. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 8:06 a.m.): Weakness overnight has put a 2831.50 target in play. There's potential for a 'mechanical short' to materialize if the futures rally to x=2882.50 (stop 2900.00). Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 2:21 p.m.): The relapse amounted to a very nasty 50 points. Shorts panicking to get 'em back have reversed the selloff from 2836.25, five points shy of my target, recouping 70% of the day's losses so far. I am skeptical about this rally but would become a (temporary) true believer again if it hits 2930.75. This is a tick above an interesting 'external' peak on the hourly chart.  

This week's 900-point selloff is technically very similar to the 1000-pointer that occurred between February 25 and March 11. Both exceeded two prior lows on the daily chart, generating bearish 'impulse legs' in the process. Now, even if the Dow should recover much or most of it in the days ahead, it would not change the troubling fact that two diving feints occurred within such a short time span. This is akin to that ominous cough in the second reel of a Hollywood melodrama. The bull's vital signs are failing, and, for a score of reasons that I've written about here,  it seems an unlikely time for stocks to get second wind. Even so, I will continue to stick closely to big-picture technicals that, at least theoretically, still give the bull plenty of room to run. The picture would change dramatically for the worse, however, if the Indoos were to fall a further 757 points, or 2.91%, exceeding 25,208 to the downside. A corresponding drop for the S&P 500 Index would be 163 points, or  5.65%. As for the Nasdaq (QQQ), still trading near last autumn's record highs, a 17-point drop to 169, or 9.1%, would likely be the death knell for the aging bull.

Remember: However nutty price action gets, it's all just impulse legs. Two tariff-related downdrafts within the last 24 hours have produced the tradeable pattern shown (click on inset). There are two ways you can play it: 1) bottom-fish at p=2905.25 with a bid a tick above that midpoint Hidden Pivot, stop 2903.75; or 2) get short at the green line 'mechanically' if the trade sets up exactly as shown. You'll be on your own if either order fills, but you should take a partial profit on half the mechanical short if it falls to the red line at 2905.25.

Shades of Smoot-Hawley!? Stocks plummeted for the second time in less than 24 hours Monday when Trump signaled to China's trade negotiators that he means business. A long-delayed, $200 billion hike in tariffs will take effect on Friday because the Chinese reneged on commitments they'd already made. I don't say they allegedly reneged or that they reportedly reneged, since no one ever believed for a minute that the scumbags were interested in giving the U.S. an honest deal. Why should they want to play fair when their goal is to cultivate trade with Europe, Asia and the rest of the world at America's expense? It will simply take them longer now, since, besides raising levies, Trump will take strident measures to thwart China's epic theft of intellectual property, and push back more aggressively against Beijing's generous subsidies to key industries. Wall Street did not take the news well, and for good reason: Americans will pay a steep price as the trade war with China escalates as seems all but certain. The Dow fell nearly 600 points when the initial story broke Sunday night that talks had broken down.  Traders spent Monday's session clawing most of it back with the crucial help of stalwart short-covering. But after the close, the trade story took a turn for the worst when it was announced that new tariffs would actually be implemented by week's end. Dow index futures dropped 200 points in a blink -- a loss that will be more difficult to recoup a second time because the negotiations are now obviously kaput. Watch 'Em Work! Even so, don't expect the fund managers to simply throw in the towel. They still control a vast sea of Other People's Money that has few places to go other than into U.S. stocks. Ten years of

Fever took hold of the stock market as the week ended, stoked by the best unemployment numbers in half a century. Two days earlier, shares had fallen sharply as investors registered their disappointment in the Fed's latest pronouncement. Obfuscator-in-chief Powell had said the central bank would hold steady and that the economy seemed in fine shape. But the markets reacted as though they were hoping for just enough bad news to push monetary policy toward easing. No matter. By Friday, the virtues of an actual strong economy won out over hopes for a weakening economy deserving of stimulus. The buying spree we saw in celebration of this newfound contentment seemed likely to accelerate in the week ahead. A key feature of the melt-up since January has been the steady rise of some FAANG stocks beset by troubling news. Boeing is enmeshed in a deepening scandal related to the fatal crash of two 737 Max aircraft. But however disconcerting the news on a given day, the stock has either risen or remained buoyant (click on chart inset). Apple's iPhone sales have been weakening, but that hasn't inhibited the stock's wilding spree. And Facebook, taking regulatory flak every time Zuckerberg speaks, has soared on news of a broad but unimpressive change in the company's business model. Finally there is Google, which plummeted 10% last week on news that they are losing ground in advertising to Facebook and Amazon. The selloff seemed certain to mutate into a routine shakedown, however, and before the week ended, Google shares appeared once again to be firmly in the grip of the weasels who manipulate them, always with an eye toward new-record highs. A Millennial Peak Scanning the business pages, the overall impression is that the U.S. economy has never been stronger and that nothing could possibly