Rick Ackerman

Pivoteers may have noticed that the rally from the October 29 low at 2603.00 tripped a 'counterintuitive' (CI) buy signal the next day when it touched the green line (see inset). A key test of bulls' resolve will come if and when they reach the midpoint resistance at 2775.13 shown in orange. I strongly doubt they will exceed it by much, assuming they even get there. In any event, we'll stay alert to a possible shorting opportunity at that level by monitoring price action on the lesser charts. Stay tuned to the chat room and enable your account for 'EMail Notifications' if you want to stay apprised in real time._______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 9:23): Bulls, reflecting on the election results, have somewhat exceeded the 2775.13 'hidden' resistance. This is mildly bullish and has put a 2947.25 target theoretically in play.

There are a dozen good reasons why we should be sounding 'taps' for the bull market. But not quite yet, perhaps, with AAPL setting up for what could prove to be a strong last-gasp rally. Why does this seem likely? For one, Friday's 7% plunge was a transparent fraud, engineered by portfolio managers who are eager as always to accumulate more Apple shares at bargain prices. How so? The company reported the usual record earnings on record sales, but its handlers, with the help of their stooges in the press, got the herd to focus on side-issues that should have been of little concern. For one, the company will no longer report hardware sales separately. This change in accounting protocols was described by the news media as an obfuscation, but it merely reflects a shift in emphasis toward the company's growing stream of revenues from services. For two, the downbeat forecast for the holiday season turns out to have been not so much downbeat as simply slightly less-than-glowing. It was instant stampede nevertheless -- fomented by the usual, useful idiots. Mau-Mauing the Hayseeds So that was the 'bad' news, and the smart guys who shamelessly work this stock 24/7 leveraged it to scare widows, pensioners and hayseeds out of their shares.  All of this is not to say AAPL is about to rocket to new record highs. Considering the headwinds the stock market faces from a strengthening dollar, higher interest rates and a collapsing housing sector, it will be increasingly difficult for the Masters of the Universe to sustain the illusion that all is well with the U.S. economy.  But it is not as though they will have to hoist the broad averages higher all by themselves -- only AAPL, the world's most valuable company. AMZN will mechanically follow suit,

We were using a 25,956 rally target on Friday after the Indoos pushed past a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance at 25529. However, the failure of the rally top to exceed the external one at 25,608 recorded on October 19 put the uptrend temporarily in jeopardy, triggering a 'CI' short at 25,207 on the subsequent selloff. It projects to a minimum 24,835, a midpoint support tied to a 'D' downside  target at 24,092. A tradeable bounce from very near p=24,835 seems very likely, so be ready to bottom-fish there with a very tight stop-loss. The equivalent support in DIA, which is optionable, lies at exactly 248.14._______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:39 p.m.): What can one say on a day when the Dow has risen nearly 200 points while the erstwhile darlings of the digital world got savaged? Knee-jerk rotation was the completely dominant theme, but there is little point in trying to predict its course until after the election results are in.

Last week I suggested pinning all of our hopes for the bull market’s continued longevity on Apple, the world’s most valuable company. The stock’s savvy institutional handlers will do everything in their power to keep it buoyant — meaning the huge losses they sustained as a result of last Thursday’s selloff are about to be recouped and then some. Be prepared to marvel at how DaBoyz erase all memory of the mildly downbeat news that triggered the cascade, then rally AAPL so that millions of shares can be distributed to widows and pensioners at prices above the last peak. These guys are really good, and we should always consider this when we see stocks fall out of bed for reasons that don’t quite add up.

A 221-point rally has failed to surpass any significant 'external' highs, suggesting that AMZN will need some help to trigger off the next short-covering panic. I've implied elsewhere on the page that it will likely come from AAPL, which, at around $200 a share, is capable of attracting buyers besides those with tens of billions of OPM to throw at the stock market. Look for some grunt-and-groan buying early in the week to hoist this behemoth above the 1698 peak shown. The pullback thereafter will be an accumulation that we may be able to leverage ahead of the next squeeze. Note, however, that just a little weakness on Sunday night/Monday morning would trip a 'counterintuitive' sell signal at 1641.92 on the hourly chart (where a=1698.46 on 10/26; and p=1586.39 as a minimum downside target that could be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss). _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:52 p.m.): Seller tripped the CI short, although no subscribers reported doing the trade. For now, use this pattern, with a minimum downside target of 1538.22, to guide you.______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 10:58 a.m.): AMZN is once again firmly in the hands of its sponsors, bound for at least 1809.80. (60-min, A=1484.00 on 10/30). We will watch it closely nonetheless, since a failure to hit the target with relative ease would add weight to the possibility that the stock market's long bull market is over.

Shares of Apple, the most valuable company in the world, were getting hit hard Thursday night after the company predicted weak holiday sales. I'd spotlighted the stock here yesterday, noting that as long as AAPL continues to move higher, it would keep the U.S. bull market alive. At the time, it looked as though buyers were ready to push it at least $28 higher, or about 12%, over the near term. Now, even with relentless share buybacks and stalwart support from institutional sponsors, bulls will have to build a base for at least 2-3 weeks if they're going to make a run at new all-time highs. We shouldn't doubt that this is what DaBoyz intend, since they were caught flat-footed by the stock's dive after the close. Don't bet too heavily against them, since they are as clever as they are desperate. But considering the latest sales forecast, it's going to be a tough slog, even for the big-time carnys who manipulate this gas-bag.

Another brutal day for bears. Be sure to check out my latest tout for AAPL, since, more than any other stock on the planet, it will determine whether the bull market is in fact dead. I find it extremely difficult to imagine why this would not be the case, considering that the Wall of Worry has grown lately to surpass Mt. Everest in height. Read this insightful column from the Wall Street Journal's Walter Russell Mead if you want a big-picture perspective on why the party is over. Mead isn't concerned so much with earnings that have peaked, a strong dollar, rising interest rates or even an incipient real estate collapse as he is with a tectonic shift in geopolitics. "The world has entered a new, complicated and dangerous era of nationalist competition," he notes -- one that trumps market forces that have been ascendant over the last 30 years. This column is a must-read.

AAPL's canny sponsors began the day coaxing a manic leap from panicky bears. The short-covering gap tripped a theoretical buy signal at 217.19 that is predicated on a further rally to at least 228.39, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown.. Once decisively above it the stock would be an odds on bet to reach the 'D' target at 250.49.  We'll ignore the trading signal for the time being, but not the stock's feistiness, since AAPL is, as we know, is the most valuable company in the world, owned by nearly every portfolio manager on the planet. That is why it is not going to crash simply because the stock market has developed a case of October sniffles. We'll follow this dirigible closely, since, all by itself, it has the power to hold the U.S. stock market aloft for as long as the institutional chimps continue to buy-and-hold it, and Apple continues to buy back its own shares._______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 10:14 p.m. ET): The stock is getting whomped in after-ours trading Thursday following a punk earnings forecast for the holiday season. AAPL has fallen 7% so far and could go even lower if it achieves the 203.88 target shown.

Gold has once again fallen into a rut, dropping moderately for three consecutive days. This has occurred with the December contract having failed by $8 to achieve a $1254.10 rally target I'd flagged. The futures have since made a tentative bottom 0.60 above the $1212.80 correction target where I'd suggested bottom-fishing.  Thus did we narrowly miss catching the $5.40 rally that ensued. But will it get legs? I doubt it. Even so, lest we become depressed, consider today's chart (inset), which is quite bullish. Rick's Picks falls somewhere around the middle of the pack in letting gold's seemingly endless thrashing around, mostly southbound, discourage us. But we can still read a chart, and the one shown gives bulls the edge because of last week's upthrust to 1246.00. That slightly exceeded a July peak, creating a by-the-book impulse leg of intermediate degree.  To negate it, the December contract would have to fall beneath August's 1167.10 low. That's not out of the question, and we shouldn't be surprised if the futures do just that in order to jerk bulls' chains for the umpteenth time. Regardless, the uptrend begun in August deserves the benefit of the doubt, and any rally of $15 or more will kick it into mid-gear. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 9:43 p.m. ET): Use the 1242.20 midpoint resistance as a minimum upside objective for Friday. If the futures exceed it decisively intraday or close above it for two consecutive days, that would imply more upside to the 1279.09 target shown. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3): Zzzzzzz.  Let's give it another day or two to see how buyers fare at 1242.20._______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:54 p.m.): More waiting is what gold typically requires of us, followed by more frustration, then more disappointment. It has been in a correction for more than seven