Rick Ackerman

When AAPL peaked Wednesday pennies above a 223.61 rally target I'd flagged two days earlier (see inset), the stock demonstrated how such targets can be used to make very precisely timed bets with puts and calls. In this case, one could have bought near-term put options at the 220 strike for as little as 0.50 when the stock was kissing the target. Just 90 minutes later they traded for 1.55, more than tripling in price. I usually tell subscribers to buy puts and calls only if they are confident the position will become profitable within minutes. I do so because time decay works aggressively against option premium-holders, and we want to avoid the temptation of thinking that allowing a trade more time to work will somehow turn it into a better trade.  It takes every trick I've learned in 40 years of trading to gain even a slight edge on directional bets with options. Using Hidden Pivots to predict exact price-reversal points is the best way I've found to do this. The profit-taking stage of trades should never be hit-or-miss. Simply taking off half your position when its price has doubled will leave you with a riskless trade. Following this simple rule can do wonders for your ability to exit what's left with the perfect timing. It will come easily when your mind is relaxed.  To learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method, and for an unbeatable deal, click here.

We've never put much store in the belief that news moves the markets. It's the other way around as far as we're concerned -- i.e., the ups and downs of stocks color our perception of the news. Thus, a rally on a day when the headlines are particularly unsettling tends to make us think the news must not be so bad after all, or that investors are so very confident that they've simply absorbed it without qualm. Which brings us to the Kavanaugh episode. What are we to make of the fact that stocks have continued strongly higher as the nation's mounting feud over Trump's legitimacy threatens to cross the line into bloody violence? Such an escalation is hardly unthinkable, given that Ted Cruz and his wife were chased from a Washington D.C. restaurant Monday night by leftists behaving like Weimar brownshirts. Recall that Germany's street mobs mutated into an SS in just ten short years. Shades of Weimar It is particularly unsettling that Washington police were not summoned to the restaurant and that no one was arrested, even for trespassing. This can only embolden what appears to be a nascent brownshirt movement in the U.S.  If they are not reined in, their protests are going to grow increasingly violent, especially when the object of their hatred moves out onto the street. As for their corporate sponsors -- Soros and other super-rich rabble-rousers who despise America -- they are playing with fire. And so, for that matter is Wall Street, which thus far has chosen to party alongside developments that could push America into a state of martial law overnight. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not fully considered the seething hatreds that are rending America, nor the likelihood that those hatreds will turn even more savage if, as appears likely,

Can a Pulitzer prize be rescinded? Journalism has disgraced itself beyond redemption, shamelessly complicit in an increasingly bizarre smear campaign against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. On Monday, a second accuser surfaced in a fact-free hit-piece by New Yorker magazine's erstwhile Pulitzer winner Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer. One Deborah Ramirez claimed in the article that at a Yale University party 34 years ago, the future Supreme Court nominee waved his penis in her face. Trouble is, she's not sure it was him, and even close friends she named as witnesses can't recall Kavanaugh's being there. The most seemingly credible thing she told Farrow and Mayer is that she was very drunk that night. The New York Times, no friend of Trump's, chose not to run the story after failing after a week of digging to confirm any of it with dozens of sources, including some of Ramirez's closest friends. While the New Yorker article acknowledged no one could be found to corroborate Ramirez's tale, which was as thin on details as Blasey's, they buried this admission well down in the story. As the day wore on, even stalwarts on the left were criticizing the supposed expose for its lack of evidence, hard, soft or otherwise. A Long Night Ahead Meanwhile, Kavanaugh's initial accuser, Christine Blasey, was waist-high in muck herself, since friends she listed as witnesses either can't recall the event at which Kavanaugh supposedly tried to pull her clothing off, or cannot attest that he was there. Over the last week, the confirmation circus has become an almost unendurably shameful moment for America. With a Senate hearing on Blasey's accusations set for Thursday, things are  likely to get worse before they get better. A brighter day awaits the nation, for sure, but it could be a very long

My two top bull market bellwethers, AAPL and AMZN, turned lower last week without having achieved their respective Hidden Pivot rally targets. (See the related 'touts' below for technical details.) The targets were moderately important ones based on bullish patterns begun more than a month ago. Although the targets remain viable, the corrective moves are mildly impulsive on the hourly chart and therefore significant enough to command our attention. It will be telling if the pullbacks exceed their a-b-c-d targets, since that's usually a reliable sign that the dominant trend -- i.e., the nine-year-old bull market -- is weakening. We'll probably know more by week's end, so stay tuned to the Rick's Picks home page if you care.

Buyers have looked so punk lately that an ostensibly 'easy' rally target at 2082.36 looks temporarily out of reach. This would be an interesting development for AMZN, since its institutional sponsors have been on a buy-and-hold binge for years. Although they've let the stock fall occasionally in order to rip off widows and pensioners at fire-sale prices, this has usually occurred after the stock peaked at a Hidden Pivot rally target of intermediate importance. This time, it's possible the unfulfilled target noted above may not be reached at all. In any event, we'll focus for the time being on a lesser, downtrending pattern that projects to 1836.85. Consider it an odds-on bet if sellers take out p=1897.53. I've recommended bottom-fishing at a similar support in AAPL, but I am not recommending it in this stock because call options, even with just five days left on them, are extremely pricey. You can try anyway if you fully understand the bet, but I wouldn't risk more than 0.20 to 0.30 per option. In practice, the only way you can do this is to rely on the midpoint support at 1897.53 to show very precise support -- meaning not be exceeded by more than 0.30 if it's going to work at all._______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 9:48 p.m. EDT): DaBoyz took down AMZN so viciously on the opening bar that there were few sellers left to impede the stock's subsequent rally. It swam upstream against a weak Dow and S&P 500, but buyers will need to close AMZN above 1962, a 'midpoint' resistance, to demonstrate their sincerity._______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 9:04 p.m.): DaBoyz mounted their one-trick pony once again and rode it sharply higher, even as the Dow Industrials eased lower. The decisive move past midpoint resistance at 1962.08 has made a follow-through to

Gold's tiresome slog over the last month between 1190 and 1220 looks increasingly likely to end with a fall to at least 1165.30, a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' support. If the futures fail to get traction there, look for more slippage to 1109.80. For gold bulls this would not be disastrous, only dispiriting. I still doubt that quotes will fall below $1000, not that that's going to cheer you if you've been nurturing a position acquired since 2011, when prices peaked just above $1900. If you're inclined to look on the bright side, click here. The chart shows that Comex futures could fall to as low as 1046 without negating a bullish pattern that projects to as high as 2278. We should remain open to the possibility, but if you want to be strictly objective about it, set a screen alert at 1391.40, since that is where the futures would generate a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the continuous monthly chart shown.

The futures topped on Friday a single tick above the 2946.75 Hidden Pivot resistance I'd said looked 'pretty solid'. I haven't established a tracking position, however, because no subscribers reported getting short. The target was seven weeks in coming, and that's why we should expect a significant pullback from it. Moreover, there is a target of even greater degree at 2949.50 (click on inset), implying double stopping power within the narrow range between and inclusive of the two targets. The  retracement so far has amounted to 15 points, but we shouldn't be surprised to see the weakness gain momentum in the days ahead. We'll be better able to judge the strength of the downtrend if we start to see minor, uptrending abc corrections fall shy of their 'd' targets -- or even more ominously, if they fail at their 'p' midpoint pivots. Another clue of growing weakness would be downtrends that start to exceed their 'D' targets. The closest of these lies at 2926.50, and it is shown here.  It will become my minimum downside objective if 2932.13, the midpoint pivot that contained Friday's selling, is exceeded. Odds will always be against calling the exact top of a bull market now in its tenth year, but it is nevertheless easy to determine where tops of lesser degree are likely to occur. One of them could turn out to be the elusive Mother of All Tops, and that's why we bother with them. As you have seen, we can always try to get short at each with risk very tightly controlled. Subscribers used to trading reversals from these high-odds peaks know we don't need for the stock market to collapse to make money on such bets._______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 10:03 p.m. EDT): The futures fell moderately, kicking and screaming the whole

Bulls got nowhere near the 224.31 peak I'd said would need to be surpassed in order to clear a path to 232.30, a longstanding Hidden Pivot rally target that should have been easier to reach. Accordingly, we'll focus for now on the downside, which points to 209.23 (see inset). The stock would first need to take out the 215.76 midpoint support, which can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 215.65. I'd suggest using 28th Sep 228 calls, which should be selling for around 1.00 with the stock around 215.76. This is a scalp-trade against the trend, and if it doesn't become profitable very soon after it is initiated, you should follow my exit plan. Incidentally, there was an interesting story in the Wall Street Journal out over the weekend that explained why Apple will face daunting challenges trying to get a foothold in Hollywood. The story somewhat corroborates a bearish think-piece by Andy Kessler that I've referred to here numerous times. Apple's cash cow, the iPhone, has saturated the market, but the firm seems clueless about what The Next Big Thing might be, let alone have a plan to become a dominant player in marketing it. For now, bigger, pricier smartphones are Tim Cook's one-trick pony. ______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 10:21 p.m. EDT): DaBoyz didn't have to take the stock down very far on the opening to trigger off a short squeeze, attesting to the confidence of buyers. They'll turn even feistier if AAPL can close above the 223.61 target shown in this chart. Use it as a minimum upside projection for Tuesday._______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 9:21 p.m.): Although they didn't achieve the 223.61 target, buyers made headway toward it. Here's a fresh chart that leaves a successful outcome in little doubt.

A subscriber who qualifies as a Hidden Pivot ace broached a Dow rally target at 40,000 Thursday in the chat room, but I'm not keen on encouraging such speculation. Applying Hidden Pivot analysis to the long-term picture, I can make a case for a move to 34,450, but no higher. Even then, bulls would need to get past two formidable Hidden Pivot resistances at lower levels. They lie, respectively, at 27,251 (just 600 points above current levels!); and at 28,897. Either looks sufficient to turn back the bullish herd, at least for a while, and both are capable of ending the bull market. A Fibonacci Trick The ace Pivoteer, David Isham, has filled in for me at times and knows his stuff. His high confidence in the 40,000 target is based on the fact that it would represent a 1.61 [sic] Fibonacci extension of a regular Hidden Pivot target. He says there's plenty of evidence to support the use of the 1.61 [sic] calculation in conjunction with Hidden Pivot levels. While this may be so, it doesn't justify ballyhooing Dow 40,000 when there are such compelling targets at lower levels.  That said, if my 28897 pivot were to be decisively penetrated I'd become a raving bull, at least until 34,450 was achieved. And if that last resistance were to get bulldozed, I'd join David's camp enthusiastically. But there is little practical value in focusing on a 40,000 target at present -- unless, perhaps, you are in the guru business and desperate to hype something...anything, to get attention.