Rick Ackerman

I posted a worst-case target of 9.35 here earlier, but because things might not turn out that bad, I am proffering an alternative at 13.527 that allows for a less dire outcome. However, that is my minimum downside projection for now, and regardless of what your long-term strategy is for silver, I would not recommend buying any more of it until 13.527 is reached. For purposes of bottom-fishing, you can expect a significant bounce from that number, given the precise bounce in December 2017 from p=16.024._______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 6:33 p.m.): I'll start believing this rally, sort of, if and when it thrusts above the 14.590 peak shown. If it can do so without much correcting or zig-zagging between here and there, that would shorten the odds that it's for real. ______ UPDATE (Sep 13, 4:45 p.m.):  Today's nasty reversal was not what I had in mind when I stipulated that the futures exceed 14.590 without much ado. But because the upthrust generated a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart before relapsing, I'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

My latest gold tout amounts to tough love for bullion bulls, since there's no point wallowing in disappointment when the technical picture is as yucky as it is now. Subscribers know that I can turn on a dime if changing conditions warrant it, but I've set the bar higher and higher to avoid getting sucked in by rallies that show just enough promise to make us feel good for a few days. It remains to be seen whether our fire-sale bid for New Gold shares will fill just above 0.50, but I doubt we are passing up a great opportunity to buy it at our original price, 0.94, a penny above today's decade low.

Rick's Picks will always be a good place to visit if you're a gold bull in need of a reality check. I promise to call 'em as I see 'em, relying solely on charts rather than sentiment to guide my forecasts. Right now, those charts are saying one thing very clearly: gold sucks.  This pains me as much as it does you, since, like many subscribers, I've got ingots, Maple Leafs and Krugerrands socked away for that rainy day we all know is coming. And it truly vexes me that one can buy a St. Gaudens double eagle -- one of the most beautiful coins ever minted -- for close to melt value. (Hey, swap 'em for bitcoin, you jackasses!) Rally 'Too Subdued' Which brings me to today's chart, a picture of Comex Gold that goes back to late 2016.  Notice that the current rally off an 1167.10 low recorded two weeks ago has been rather subdued. Given that the prospect of a drop beneath the December 2016 low at 1162.00 should have scared at least some bulls out of their positions, we might have expected this rally to be steeper and livelier. Instead, it has died just shy of the green line where a "counterintuitive" buy signal would have been tripped (see inset). The so-far failure of the CI trade to trigger is a bearish sign. It suggests that another test is coming of the 1162.00 low, and that if support there fails, gold will be headed down toward 1000 to test a more important low that occurred at 1046 in the final days of 2015. That's the technical picture, and there is no way to sugar-coat it.

The buying panic in AMZN is getting a wee bit silly. However, lest subscribers try to intercept it too aggressively, let me note that two Hidden Pivot rally targets remain before the weekly chart's rally potential is exhausted. The higher lies at 2038.67, but I'm suggesting that subscribers fade the trend only if they've made money on the way up. It was possible to do so on Wednesday using a 1995.24 target I'd furnished, but it took nimbleness and daring, since the stock eventually went above that price. Whatever your plan, stay tuned to the chat room if you want to increase your chances of staying out of harm's way.

If there were any doubts about whether Jeff Bezos is the world’s richest man, Wednesday’s $67 surge in the price of Amazon stock should have dispelled them. As the owner of a reported 79 million shares, the rally will have added more than $5B to his net worth – not bad for a single day’s passive income.  I’d proffered a 1973.06 rally target here Tuesday night but had to raise it to 1995.24 intraday when the stock’s ascent went vertical. But now what? AMZN is currently trading $3 above the second number, strongly implying that it is headed even higher.  I have just two more targets to offer, both of them from the weekly chart, before I run out of Hidden Pivot ideas. They lie, respectively, at 2oo7.92, or 2038.67 if any higher (see inset).  A chat room denizen reported making money shorting near 1995.24 on Wednesday and could probably do it again at either of these new levels. But I’d suggest you review his posts before you assume it’ll be easy. _______ UPDATE (August 30, 5:15 p.m.): Today's nutty lunge topped at 2025.57 -- close but no cigar. We'll continue to monitor AMZN's progress toward the target, but we'll also be on the alert for any impulsive downtrends that threaten to leave our target permanently unfulfilled.

With the stock market near record highs, consumer confidence leaped in August to its highest level since 2000. Arguably, Americans haven't been this giddy since August 1929, when shares peaked ahead of the 1929 crash.  What could possibly go wrong? Shoppers in particular have been feeling so exuberant that they've been doing some of their buying at retail stores rather than ordering everything from Amazon. For our part, we'll be monitoring the Dow and the S&P 500 more closely than ever for signs of a stall at key Hidden Pivot targets. If you stay focused on the lesser charts, as we continue to remind subscribers, you will never,ever miss an important turn. Although it's possible to make a case for a Dow rally to 35000 if the trade war with China turns into a durable peace, it's just as reasonable to argue that the bull market, currently in its 113th month, could end at any time without warning.

The Dow's 259-point rally Monday on good Nafta news was just chicken scratch compared to what will happen if China comes around on tariffs. It's not a done deal, to be sure, but things are not nearly so hopeless as the mainstream media would have us believe. China has stacked the deck heavily in its favor for too long, brazenly stolen intellectual property and subsidized manufacturers and exporters in ways that heavily disadvantage U.S. companies. That's why Trump means business -- and why China eventually will have to yield some ground

We've been using a 1926.21 rally target to stay confidently on the right side of the trend for the last several weeks, but it feels stingy now that the stock is nearly there. I'll recommend substituting the new Hidden Pivot target at 1973.06 shown in the chart, since AMZN looks primed to blow past the lower number in a New York minute. I have such trouble imagining the stock not achieving the new target that you can be boldly confident in it if you trade AMZN. We'll want to reverse any long positions and get short when the stock gets within 0.15-0.20 of 1973.06, since the pattern that produced this 'hidden' resistance is so clear and compelling. Check tonight's post in the chat room for explicit guidance. (Note: Rick's Picks tracks AMZN closely because it is by far the most important publicly traded stock in the world -- the perfect proxy for the mindset of the institutional chimpanzees who continue to throw money at it no matter what. As long as it is headed higher, so are the broad averages.) ________ UPDATE (August 29, 12:30 p.m. EDT):  With all the drum-rolling of the 1973.06 target given above, I missed a far more obvious and compelling target at 1995.24.  Here it is.  In this morning's tutorial session, I suggested getting short with out-of-the-money puts expiring in 5-12 days.

There's moderate interest in copper in the chat room, so I'll mention that the September contract would trigger a 'counterintuitive' buy signal if the rally begun from 225.20 on August 15 hits 275.15. Odds thereupon of a further move to at least 295.05, the Hidden Pivot midpoint, look good. However, because the initial risk on this trade would be around $5000 per contract, I'll suggest 'converting' the CI signal to a camouflage set-up on the fifteen-minute (or less) chart. That would allow you to pare the entry risk down to a theoretical $50-$100 or so.  Subscribers interested in the trade should tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time, and to nudge me if necessary. Incidentally, the recent bottom, although unnoticed by me, occurred within an inch of p=253.85 (where, on the daily chart, A=333.45 on 6/7. This makes it more likely that the current rally will get legs.________ UPDATE (August 28, 11:00 p.m.):  The intraday high came within 0.60 of tripping the 'CI' buy signal. If you care, please make it known in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 12:56 a.m.): Basis the December contract, Wednesday's fleeting surge missed tripping the 277.45 buy signal by a hair. Click here to see the chart.