Rick Ackerman

AAPL's latest wilding spree has $10 farther to go before it hits something solid in the form of the 226.26 target shown.  That's a Hidden Pivot resistance, and it is sufficiently clear and compelling that we might expect a tradable pullback from within perhaps 0.10 - 0.20 points of it. Trading the upside using options will always be difficult, since market makers have a canny way of pricing puts and calls so that selling time premium yields at least somewhat better odds than owning it. In this case I'll suggest leveraging an edge of our own -- i.e., 'foreknowledge' of where, exactly, the rally is most likely to reverse -- and buying put options if and when the stock gets within 0.15 of the target (i.e., hits 226.11). Use the 220 strike with options that expire in 5-12 days. _______ UPDATE (August 30, 3:42 p.m.): Subscribers reported buying Sep 7 220 puts when AAPL hit my target, so I'll track four @0.60.  Some bought them for as little as 0.50, but I customarily use the worst fill reported -- in this case 0.61 -- for a cost basis.  For now, offer two of the puts to close for 1.20, good-till-canceled. Those of you who paid 0.50 could have doubled out on half, since the options subsequently traded as high as 1.04._______ UPDATE (August 31, 6:35 p.m.): Stop yourself out of the puts if they trade for 0.30. They got as low as 0.35 on Friday before finishing slightly higher. Regardless, my gut feeling is that the stock will top somewhere in this vicinity.________ UPDATE (Sep 4, 10:17 p.m.): AAPL traded above the 226.26 target, stopping out the puts, but the $3 overshoot was not sufficient for us to infer that the stock is ready to blast off for outer space.

My latest update for the E-Mini S&Ps calls for a move shortly to new all-time highs, with a corresponding 800-point rally in the Dow Industrials that would fall just shy of a record. This burst of exuberance may seem all but inevitable now, but there were reasons to doubt that it would occur when a global tariff war threatened to erupt a few months ago. The threat has since receded, and it now appears that China will follow Europe's constructive lead in reconciling trade differences with the U.S. Looking at a longer-term picture, a move away from tariffs globally -- which is what Trump evidently intends -- would support much higher prices for equity shares, even in a Europe that has grown dangerously dependent on Germany's economic strength to carry the day.

Look for the E-Mini S&Ps to rise to record heights next week, bound for the 2942.00 target shown. That would equate to a 800-point Dow rally to around 26,580.  Friday's thrust past a related 'Hidden Pivot midpoint' resistance at 2866.50 was not decisive enough for us to infer that a move to the target is a done deal, but it was sufficient to justify an aggressively bullish trading stance. Tune to the chat room if you want to join in the fun, since this vehicle is developing an avid following among Rick's Picks subscribers. I will turn cautious, if not to say skeptical, if and when the target is reached, since I vowed to do so months ago when thinking about the perfect bull trap, as I am now. Even though a global outbreak of tariff-free trade would likely suffice to push the broad averages much higher, that is not a done deal either, not by any stretch, and that is why I will be monitoring price action closely for potentially fatal stalls at Hidden Pivot resistance points as clear and compelling as this one. As always, we'll be trading both sides of the market -- bullishly on rallies; bearishly, with very tight stops, at high-confidence turning points.______ UPDATE (August 30, 6:20 p.m.):  Although we should keep the 2942.00 target given above well in mind, it can't hurt to have an alternative if buyers should bulldoze it.  Here's a Hidden Pivot at 3004.50 that looks compelling enough to warrant shorting aggressively if and when it is reached.  A move to that number should not be regarded as a done deal, however, since the push past the midpoint pivot at 2771 has been anything but quick and decisive.

I'm old-fashioned enough to shun red-hot IPOs of companies founded by millennials, but I'll make an exception if and when WeWork goes public. Some have questioned whether the firm has truly re-imagined office space or whether it is simply adept at making PR waves by overpaying for commercial real estate. Whatever the case, the firm has attracted the bluest of blue-chip backers, including Goldman Sachs, Softbank and JP Morgan.  Its business is creating workspaces for freelancers and entrepreneurs who are looking for customizable office space and the kind of co-workers that WeWork hubs attract. Denver's Millennial Hive I was only minimally aware of WeWork until a few weeks ago, when I took a stroll around one of Denver's hottest millennial neighborhoods and saw a hive of activity like no other, even in San Francisco. The work district and nearby residential high-rises, most of them brand new, are separated by a noisy corridor of U.S. I-25, but there are walkways over the highway that permit an easy flow of pedestrians between their bedrooms and a cluster big-city amenities ranging from utopian to funky.  This is an attractive feature of urban areas that just a decade ago would have been considered blighted. Dilapidated old buildings can be turned into the kind of space that appeals to young workers and which entices an eclectic variety of vendors. WeWork has the ability not only to attract workers and businesses, but to reshape the cities themselves so that they become even more appealing. The re-urbanization of America has just begun, and WeWork is positioned to be a major player in the process. As such, the lofty valuation that has been given the company's privately held shares may eventually prove to have been conservative.

In yesterday's commentary I underestimated the threat posed by the conviction of two close former associates of Trump. With Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort going down in flames on the same day, it looked like a wet dream-scenario for the tens of millions of Americans who not only wish Trump ill, but who have been praying for his impeachment since Election Day. Trump-haters may get their wish if Democrats take control of the House in November, since that would likely be their first order of business. They would be impelled not only by their acute dislike of Trump, but by the urgent need to push him out of office before he gets a chance to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the Supreme Court's most likely next retiree, with a conservative jurist. Between now and mid-term elections in November, Trump will be under great pressure to explain himself each day as he is barraged with questions from the press and his many detractors on Capitol Hill.  This cannot but weigh on the bull market, even one seemingly as inured to bad news as this one. If Trump is hounded out of office, it will be as bad for investors as the post-election rally was good for them.

Index futures have plunged in after-hours trading, presumably on news that Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, has been convicted of fraud. Does Wall Street actually care about this?  Not one bit. So why are stocks falling?  Simply because the traders who 'work' the news each night think it will trigger widows and pensioners into dumping their shares at fire-sale prices. However, I am advising Rick's Picks subscribers who held short positions in the E-Mini S&Ps from today's high to cover most of it before DaBoyz run up the shares they are at this moment stealing from the gullible and the unwary. Their phony, fright-wig tactics remind me of Oscar Wilde's crack that "One would have to have a heart of stone to read the death of little Nell without dissolving into tears...of laughter.'  And so it goes with those who evidently believe that Manafort's conviction will hold back a bull market that is manipulated 100% of the time by shysters, carny men and lunatics. _______ UPDATE (12:30 a.m.): I now see that a news story out just after I published the comments above -- Cohen Cops a Plea -- was the ostensible reason for the stock market's dive. My comments still apply, however, since only the half of America suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome could possibly believe that Trump's ex-lawyer's admission of guilt in the bimbo-payoff scandal will topple the President.

Say this for the E-Mini S&Ps, the short-term swings are about as predictable as the timing of the next sunrise. Since several subscribers reported getting short today using a 2874.25 rally target I'd disseminated here a week ago, I'm establishing a tracking position consisting of four contracts and suggesting that you cover half now with the futures trading around 2861.  That would leave you two short contracts with an adjusted cost basis of 2887.  I will further recommend that you cover a third contract at 2858.00, worked o-c-o with an 'impulsive' stop-loss on the entire position at 2869.50. Hidden Pivot 'Tricks' Today's actual high at 2874.00 fell just a single tick shy of my target. Those of you who got short may recall that Hidden Pivot analysis also nailed the start of the rally within two ticks when the futures bottomed a week ago at 2803.00. Such marksmanship comes easily when you know a few Hidden Pivot tricks. However, it is far more difficult in practice to actually trade these targets, even when they are hit very precisely. The reason was evident as the futures made their way toward this latest target. Their ascent over the last five days was in ratcheting spurts, with each marginal new high giving way to pullbacks bigger than what a trader would have made holding from one peak to the next. Bottom line, if you are keeping risk:reward constant at 1:3 as I always recommend, it is impossible to profit on a trade using a buy-and-hold strategy, even when you are confident the target will be reached.  That is not to say that high-odds targets are not useful, since, at the very least, they will keep you confidently on the right side of the trend from start to finish. ______ UPDATE (August 22, 10:20

Buyers fell 11 points shy of surpassing late February's key recovery high, an achievement that would have generated an impressive 'impulse leg' on the daily chart. The earlier peak lay at 25,800 versus Monday's intraday high at 25790. My hunch is that they will get past it on Tuesday, or at least within the week. But as a practical matter, and to be very cautious, I will treat a marginal breakout as a possible shorting opportunity via a 'counterintuitive' pattern. Assuming the Indoos do not first exceed 25790, a signal to get short, using DIA puts, would trigger on a drop to 25,176. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if you care.

My gut feeling is that Tesla shares have seen their highs for a long while. Usually I let the charts do the talking, but in this case I've jumped the gun to sketch out a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern as it might develop over the next 15-20 months (see inset).  This is just speculation, of course, but it's not farfetched to "see" a left shoulder and head already in place on the weekly chart.  Although the SEC is likely to rough up CEO Elon Musk for his ill-considered tweet about taking the company private, legal troubles will probably be the least of his problems. He has flatly asserted the company will be profitable from this point forward, but it's hard to take him seriously, since there are reportedly serious design flaws and manufacturing problems besetting Model 3. The Upside of Failure Tesla sales are down in Europe and likely to fall further as formidable competitors such as Jaguar, Mercedes Benz and BMW enter the market for cars powered by electric motors. Musk could pull a rabbit out of the hat with some startling development in battery storage, but that is not an odds-on bet either. It doesn't help that, from a financial perspective, the automaker has been skirting bankruptcy. If the head-and-shoulders pattern plays out as sketched, the stock is headed below $200, well beneath the recently revised price targets of some high-profile analysts.  Tesla fans shouldn't despair, however, since a collapse in the share price would force Musk to get his formidable mind back on the basics rather than on the stock's ups and downs. Somewhat removed from the limelight, he would have the breathing room to do what he had started out to do -- i.e., sell enough expensive cars to generate the cash needed to produce a true