Rick Ackerman

This might not be the quickly subsiding ripple-on-the-pond that we've become so accustomed to over the years. It's possible something bigger is happening, and if it continues for just a few more days, it could suggest that institutional mindset may be undergoing a sea change.  I am referring to the fact that stocks have fallen hard on a day when bullion and T-Bonds rallied sharply.  This has occurred before, but seldom has it lasted for more than two days.  If it should happen again on Friday, and then again on Monday, look for these trends to gain momentum in the weeks ahead. The scenario would become even more compelling if waxing rallies in bullion and Treasury Bonds are joined by a resurgent U.S. dollar.

The June contract was getting whacked hard Thursday night, down as much as 26 points earlier this evening.  This is bullish as far as it goes, since it suggests DaBoyz are desperate to exhaust sellers ahead of the opening bell.  That would allow them to goose stocks sharply higher in the opening minutes of Friday's session, using whatever short-covering panic they can stir up to push stocks to rich valuations before the bottom drops out again.  My hunch is that any buying will be too feeble to spook shorts and that the broad averages will be trading significantly lower than they are now when the week ends. The biggest short-squeeze rally we are likely to see will come in the final hour on Friday. That's because DaBoyz will not want to press their luck trying to get a major short squeeze going earlier in the day.

Now wasn't that refreshing! Sellers drove the Dow Industrials 724 points lower on Thursday, displaying unaccustomed boldness and panache that perfectly matched the spirit of the headline I'd sent out to subscribers the night before:  Stocks Look Primed to Plummet on a Dearth of ‘Good’ News.  And there is even more good news for those who had begun to despair of the possibility that sanity would ever return to the stock market. The next dose of sanity -- call it a second spoonful of castor oil -- is all but guaranteed to knock the Dow Industrials down to at least 22,822, a Hidden Pivot target that lies 1135 points below today's close. (Note: If that number is exceeded by more than a few points, keep 22,544 in mind as an alternative.)  A bounce from either will almost surely be tradable, and I don't foresee this selloff exceeding the lower number, at least not before the Indoos have rallied sharply enough to suck everyone back in. _______ UPDATE (March 23, 6:48 p.m.): Today's plunge left the Indoos in good shape to achieve the target(s) identified above. I strongly expect a tradeable bounce from very close to either number, or perhaps from both. _______ UPDATE (March 26, 11:52 p.m.):  Bulls shouldn't get too excited by today's nearly 700-point upthrust.  Actually, if it continues for another 853 points, the Dow would become a 'mechanical' short.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (March 27, 10:18 p.m.):  Just one small change -- an upward adjustment to 22,856 in my minimum downside target. (The alternative target is now 22,551  - seven points higher than the original.) ________ UPDATE (April 2, 2:04 p.m.): I now prefer the 22,251 target flagged above, mainly because of the precise bounce a month ago from its associative midpoint pivot, 24,176. We should

I said I would turn cautiously bullish if April Gold exceeded 1331.90 -- and so it has, with a rally today that hit 1336.90. My first instinct is to move the bar at least somewhat higher lest we be fooled by yet another doomed rally. In this case, while giving bulls the small benefit of the doubt, we can use the 1343.70 target shown to guide us. If this compelling Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded on the first try, that would strengthen the bullish case for the near term.  My gaze would shift upward to 1367.50, a reasonable number to use at that point as a minimum upside projection.  Here's the chart, with target.

Rick was in top form with his return today to the weekly tutorial series. He will continue doing these hour-long sessions every Wednesday at 1:00 EDT until his treatment schedule at M.D. Anderson no longer permits it. During this class he reiterated the simple rules governing mechanical and counterintuitive trades. These two tactics, along with ‘camouflage’ set-ups, are all a student needs to know in order to profit consistently. In the meantime, the best thing one can do to move steeply up the learning curve is to review the recordings of previous Wednesday tutorial sessions conducted by Rick. You should start with the most recent and work backward in time. There are dozens of them that emphasize ‘mechanical,’ ‘counterintuitive’ and ‘camouflage’ trades in explicit detail. Watch just five or six of them and you will start to develop the ‘Hidden Pivot ‘chops’ needed to trade with confidence.

It was predictable that DaBoyz would attempt to sucker rubes into buying stocks ahead of Wednesday's dog-bites-man announcement from the Fed. The only surprise is that when the announcement of a universally expected 25-basis-point hike came at 2:0o p.m., the Dow and S&Ps did not reverse with a vengeance; instead, they sold off moderately to finish slightly lower on the day.  Look for the selling to pick up steam, since DaBoyz have so little to work with on the news front. Search as they might for 'bullish' headlines, their benighted lackeys in the news media have gone off the reservation, obsessing over Trump-and-the-Russians drivel that most of us tuned out six months ago. If that's the only news the media hacks can gin up in these all-too-interesting times, the stock market is about to pass out from a lack of oxygen.

In the list of touts below, Amazon has replaced Apple as the stock we should care about most.  The latter may still be the most valuable company in the world by capitalization, but iPhone sales are finally meeting resistance at prices Android-phone users have long considered ridiculous.  Because of this, AAPL has languished recently while AMZN has been developing thrust for the relatively small push it would take to propel the stock into record territory once again. A Pure Play To be sure, owning shares in both companies is a must for any portfolio manager who wants to keep his or her job. But AMZN, unencumbered by news of sluggish sales, is now the purer play on institutional mindset and seems likely to outperform AAPL for the duration of the bull market. A wild card is that Apple may at some point in our lifetime resolve iPhone's chronic battery problems. That would be welcome news for consumers, but we shouldn't hold our breath waiting for such an epiphany to send Apple's shares into spasms of exuberance.

We're staying close to AMZN because it can tell us everything we need to know about the bull market, its institutional sponsors and their exact state of mind at any given moment  On Tuesday, the Masters of the Universe ran 'em up shorts' ol' wazoo, goosing the stock $62 above the previous day's lows. This has of course improved the odds of a finishing stroke to the 1639.19 target shown.  I hadn't given up on it, but last week's plunge seemed to put it out of easy reach; now, it's just one middling short-squeeze away. The broad averages will be unable to fall if this occurs. However, we won't allow ourselves to get caught up in AMZN's ebullience, since the stampede could easily end at 1639.19, a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance. I'll suggest buying a few out-of-the-money puts with a week or two left on them if and when AMZN gets there, but treat this as a speculation, wagering no more than you can afford to lose painlessly.  In the meantime, I'll keep a close eye on the lesser charts, since I'd hate for us to be caught unprepared if the stock turns lower, possibly headed to sub-$1000 hell, without having achieved such a crystal-clear target. ________ UPDATE (March 23, 12:18 a.m.):  Today's nasty reversal signaled more downside to at least 1508.91.  Let's see if this relatively minor Hidden Pivot support can contain sellers.  Here's the chart.  Please note that a rally to the green line would trip a mechanical short there, stop 1590.01. _______ UPDATE (March 23, 2:46 p.m.): The stock bottomed this morning at 1509.00 -- just nine cents from the Hidden Pivot target flagged above -- before trampolining $22 higher. No one mentioned having used the target to get long, so I haven't established a

Stocks rallied in the final hour of Monday's session, but the flurry of short-covering was too feeble to cause bears much discomfort or doubt. If the pessimists are smart and keep their cool for a change, they'll simply let stocks fall on Tuesday.  That is what the market seems likely to do if it gets no help from 'don't pass' bettors willing to believe, if only for a few days, that all is not right with the world. If the selling snowballs we could conceivably see something that has occurred only rarely in recent years -- i.e., lower prices for the Dow Industrials on four consecutive days. Even three straight days is pretty unusual, as you can see for yourself in the chart.  Monday can be 'day one' for those of you who believe it's possible to rattle the markets by counting "One...two...THREE!...FOUR!!!" in an ostentatious manner.