Rick Ackerman

A new week, and who knows what it might bring? From a technical standpoint stocks look like they are itching to fall, if only to set up the bounce that would put the broad averages on course for new record highs. A week-long buying frenzy would more than do the trick. However, there was nothing in last week's tired price action to suggest Mr. Market is eager to accommodate anyone's schedule. Sometimes it's difficult to tell whether the tide is ebbing or flowing; this is just such a time.

The flatulence that ended the week rendered the markets too uninteresting, even, to keep us guessing.  We'd have a better chance of detecting excitement putting our ear to the ground at a cemetery. It was that kind of Friday.  I'd suggested here earlier that a dull day could be prelude to a 'Pearl Harbor attack' on Sunday night. Yes, that would be lovely indeed, since it's been a while since the Masters of the Universe have gotten more than slightly bruised, let alone bloodied. But it would probably take a very unsettling headline to start things rolling, since the charts themselves have practically flat-lined.  There's no point in our trying to predict the news, but please note that the usual mayhem -- i.e., "Shooter kills 117, film at 6:00!!" -- is unlikely to cause much of  stir in the heartless precincts of Wall Street.

We'll continue to monitor AMZN's vital signs closely, since, as I noted here earlier, the stock is unlikely to mislead us concerning the health and vitality of the global bull market in equities. The steady and seemingly unstoppable rise of Amazon shares is arguably a perfect analog for the mindset of the institutional buyers who have been driving this bull for the last nine years.  It doesn't hurt that the company is a true brick-and-mortar operation in the old-fashioned way -- i.e., using a vast capital infrastructure that includes more than a hundred warehouses, some as large as a million square feet, in the U.S. alone; more than 150,000 employees; and delivery needs so far-reaching and urgent that they even keep U.S. Postal Service workers busy on Sundays. So what does AMZN look like, technically speaking? The chart (click on inset) hints of a possible trend failure. Although the stock "should have" hit 1639.19 on the most recent upthrust, buyers sputtered out at 1617.54, well shy of our Hidden Pivot target.  Yes, AMZN could turn sharply higher at any time, reaching the target in just a few days. But I am taking the so-far failure to do so seriously because a similar failure has occurred in several other noteworthy trading vehicles, most particularly the E-Mini S&Ps. There is also a corresponding rally in Treasurys, which, if it were to continue, would imply that the very big picture for investors has changed. To correlate this with AMZN, I'd suggest setting an alert at 1545.24, since a print at that price would turn the hourly chart bearish for the first time in nearly six weeks. _______ UPDATE (March 19, 8:32 p.m.): Sellers sent the stock plummeting 50 points in the early going, but AMZN ended the day in a 20-point short-squeeze that would

The bullish case has dimmed somewhat over the last few days, since DXY has begun to roll down without having exceeded the 'external' peak at 91.00 that I've labeled in the chart.  The intraday charts are another story and remain bullish, but a push above 91.00 would have made the bullish story far more compelling. On the 20-minute chart, DXY need only rally above 89.89 to somewhat revive the dollar's spirits. In any event, and as always, we'll look for the upturn on charts of smaller degree before we wax bullish again._______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:33 p.m. EST): The dollar got crushed after traders reconsidered their earlier reaction to a CPI number that was worse than had been expected. Now, if DXY falls beneath the Jan 26 low at 88.44, it would put an 86.27 target in play. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:07 p.m.): The marginal new low at 88.25 recorded Friday was just 0.04 beneath my original target at 88.29 and will have no significant impact on the dollar's bullish prospects as described above. However, if DXY were to close beneath 88.29 for two consecutive days, that would suggest another bout of weakness is coming. Any rally will be just pussyfooting, though, unless this vehicle can pop above the 91.00 peak labeled in the chart. _______  UPDATE (March 4, 5:08 p.m.):  The Dollar Index has traded as high as 90.93 -- close to my benchmark, but no cigar.  However, that peak generated a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, raising the odds that the next push will exceed the bullish trigger point at 91.00.  ________ UPDATE (March 14, 12:13 a.m. EDT): Today's weakness broke a key Hidden Pivot support at p=89.68. The implication is that DXY will now fall to at least 88.99, the 'D' target associated with

Anyone following the markets closely on Thursday risked falling into a trance (see chart inset). Buyers and sellers threw sissy-boy punches all day long, effecting price action so listless and dithering that it's difficult to imagine Friday bringing a discernible change.  In short, it's just the kind of lull Mr. Market creates in order to set up a Sunday evening surprise -- what I referred to the other day as a 'Pearl Harbor attack.'  Yeah, I know: An important point that Nassim Taleb made in his 2007 best-seller The Black Swan is that, by definition, such events cannot be anticipated or described in advance.  Even so, hope springs eternal that Wall Street's best and brightest will at some point get the crap kicked out of them, the better to start the cycle anew with chastened markets that might bend more easily toward rationality if not necessarily honesty.

I've gone out on a limb with a speculatively bearish call on the E-Mini S&Ps and a correspondingly bullish one for June T-Bonds (see below).  But if a sea change is about to occur on Wall Street, there's scant evidence of it in the chart of AMZN (see inset), a stock I referred to here the other day as the 800-pound gorilla of the securities world. It is as good an analog as we could find for the mood of institutional buyers who will ultimately determine when to pull the plug on a bull market that just entered its tenth year. From a technical standpoint, AMZN must reach the 1639.19 target shown to maintain the indomitable bullishness of its long-term chart. If it were instead to dive below the red line, that would be persuasive evidence that the bull is, if not dead, then in serious trouble.  We'll continue to monitor the stock closely in any event, since it is unlikely to mislead us concerning the health and vitality of the global bull market in equities.

I've hung out the yellow flag because the E-Mini S&Ps reversed on Tuesday without having achieved a clear-as-day rally target.  Bellwethers AMZN and BA have also turned lower after failing to reach ostensibly easy targets. Add in the fact that T-Bonds and T-Notes are in unaccustomed rallies, and there's enough evidence to suggest we should be alert to a possible tone-change on Wall Street.  Things will grow even more interesting if April Gold pushes past two bullish benchmarks noted in the current tout.

Ordinarily I wouldn't make too much of the E-Mini's failure on Tuesday to reach the 2816.50 target shown, but it's worth mentioning for two reasons. For one, the pattern that produced the target is so clear and compelling that even a shortfall of two or three ticks should be taken as a warning sign.  And for two, I've gotten so accustomed to predicting higher and higher prices for this vehicle over the years that I am being extra careful about getting sandbagged when the broad averages finally do head sharply lower for more than the usual day or two. I am not predicting that this about to happen, but we'll at least give bears the benefit of the doubt for the moment. To be specific, I'll note that a further decline touching 2720.00 would make the June contract no worse than an even-odds bet to continue down to at least 2632.75. ________ UPDATE (March 14, 6:35 p.m. EDT): So far so good.  If an avalanche is imminent, today's moderate weakness left plenty of room for sellers to develop a full head of steam by week's end or early next. (Of course, a Sunday night 'Pearl Harbor attack' should always be viewed as a significant possibility.)  From a psychological standpoint, I like the fact that shorts betting on the ability of several important peaks recorded since early February's plunge to cap the rally have been stopped out no fewer than three times. _______ UPDATE (March 15, 6:24 p.m.): Today's sleep-inducing price action changed nothing in my outlook, other than somewhat reducing the odds that a serious decline will get under way before the weekend. Even so, if you're going to take a position home over the weekend, I'd suggest a small short rather than a long -- just to make things

Amazon's show of strength on Monday when most other stocks were falling is testimony to the revival-tent fervor of its institutional sponsors. They bought AMZN and a few other 'lunatic' stocks with impunity, including AAPL, TSLA and GOOG.  This is no active of boldness; rather, it simply shows what DaBoyz can accomplish when it is only a relative handful of stocks that need their support.  The illusion of a powerful bull market will continue as long as all eyes remain on the FAANG stocks. Although the Dow fell 157 points to begin the week, bull-market fever is still very much with us.  Concerning AMZN, a second 'Hidden Pivot' rally target I proffered here yesterday at 1639.19 is still worth watching, especially if you don't trust the stock market at these levels. It lies $40 above, and it looks well capable of stopping bulls in their tracks.