Rick Ackerman

Apple's flaccid behavior on Wednesday tripped a 'mechanical' buy at 174.65, a Hidden Pivot level shown in the chart as a green line. Although the stock looked awful, I will establish a tracking position nonetheless if I hear from at least two subscribers who did the trade. It would require a stop-loss at 172.44 that implies initial risk on four round lots of nearly $900. If the stock moves higher without breaching C=172.45, take profits on half the position at p=176.88, then hold the rest for a shot at the 181.26 target given here earlier. ________ UPDATE (March 8, 4:66 p.m.):  The trade has produced an $880 gain so far, although no one mentioned holding a position in the chat room. In any event, you should have exited half the position at p=176.88 per my instruction above.  Now, offer another round lot to close at 181.00, but make the order o-c-o with a 172.45 stop-loss on the 200 shares that remain. _______ UPDATE (March 10, 3:44 p.m.): The position racked up a further gain on Friday of $600 with a rally above the secondary pivot at 179.06. Sell another 100 shares when the stock opens Sunday night, keeping the last round lot for a shot at 181.00.  If you decide to hold onto it above that price, I'd recommended using a trailing stop no wider than $2.00. ________ UPDATE (March 12, 2:59 p.m.):  With this morning's thrust to 182.20, AAPL has maxed out all minor targets, including one at 182.06 that I hadn't mentioned previously.  It is shown in this chart, and I'd be surprised if buyers munch through it within the next 24 hours. If you held the stock from the green line and took profits as suggested, you'd have come away with a gain of around $1700 on

Amazon, the 800-pound gorilla of the securities world, is closing fast on a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1596.43 (see inset) that seems likely to show some stopping power. If this number does in fact repel the bullish herd, watch for the broad averages to top at the same time. And if the stock hits its mark at the same time the E-Mini S&Ps touch a correspondingly important target at 2809.75, you had better reef the sails. There's an alternative target in AMZN that could come into play if 1596.43 is decisively exceeded: 1639.19.  Traders and investors should keep both of these  numbers well in mind. Of course, there's always a chance the stock will tear right through them. if it does, then it is bears who had better get out of the way.

Uh-oh. I’d said bond bulls would be in trouble if this vehicle were to pop above 2.57%, and so it has. It tracks interest rates on the Ten-Year Treasury Note, and signs are not good. On Wednesday TNX breached the key threshold mentioned above, putting a possible further move to 3.11% in play. The breach of 2.57%, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ resistance, shown as a red line in the chart, would need to be more decisive for me to rate a move to 3.11% as an odds-on bet, but I’d call it a near-certainty if the rally were to go just a tad higher, surpassing the key ‘external’ peak on the weekly chart at 2.615% without taking a breather. We’ll probably know soon what's coming, but it’s hard to imagine how a U.S. economy so completely dependent on vast excesses of credit will function if this key rate is in fact headed to 3.11% or even higher. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:49 p.m.) Rates on the Ten-Year Note are climbing quicker than I'd expected.  They are bound most immediately for the 2.98% target shown, but even slight progress above it would shorten the odds of a continuation to the 3.11 target over the next couple of weeks. _______ UPDATE (March 4, 5:08 p.m.): Last week's low generated a bearish impulse leg, implying that rates on the Ten-Year will be headed lower over the next few days, if not longer.  If instead DXY moves higher, closing above 28.99 for two consecutive days, we could expect the move to reach a minimum 3.00% within the next 5-7 days.  Here's a fresh chart that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (March 7, 6:08 p.m.): Rates have in fact trended lower as predicted in the previous update. But there is nothing in the long-term chart

We'll keep a close eye on Boeing, since the stock has the ability to lead the broad averages higher on a given day. At the moment, signs are bullish, but they would become still moreso if buyers can lift BA decisively above the 348.80 midpoint pivot today or Thursday.  Even more bullish would be a two-day close above that number.  Rather than guess about underlying strength or weakness, we'll look for clues in the stock's behavior relative to the Hidden Pivot levels shown in the chart. Stay tuned for further guidance. _______ UPDATE (March 8, 6:16 p.m. EST): Boeing tripped a very enticing 'mechanical' buy signal today when it pulled back to the green line at 344.15. Half of any stock purchased there would have been cashed out at the 348.80 midpoint pivot for a $930 gain, leaving 200 shares with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 339.50. I am not tracking this trade officially, but Pivoteers should file the chart in their trader memory banks under "Mechanical Perfection." At this point, the 358.10 target looks like a good bet to be achieved._______ UPDATE (March 11, 5:07 p.m.): The gain on this trade is now a hypothetical $2100. No subscribers reported having done it, but I am tracking it nonetheless to demonstrate the ability of mechanical set-ups to produce consistent profit with relatively little work or stress.  Although Boeing, at $350 per share, is priced beyond most traders' means, the same entry tactic we've used here can be employed with commensurate results in stocks costing $50 stock or less. My purpose is to train your eye to see what kinds of patterns work best.  They all begin, as I continue to emphasize, with good strong 'impulse legs' that perfectly meet a few simple rules. Click here for a fresh chart that

The futures made solid progress Friday toward a 2809.75 rally target that has served us well. It was our minimum upside objective when the March contract was trading nearly 100 points lower. It also tripped a 'mechanical' entry signal last week that I noted at the time. The clarity of this pattern, and the way the impulse leg conformed perfectly to our rules, made it an excellent teaching example. If it continues to behave as it should, we should expect a tradeable top to occur precisely at the 2809.75 target or very close to it. _______ UPDATE (March 12, 5:24 p.m. EDT): The futures sold off moderately after topping overnight at 2800.50, just shy of our longstanding target at 2809.75.  It remains viable nonetheless, but the hourly chart would turn impulsively bearish on a print below 2730.00. [Note:  The equivalent target for the June contract is 2816.50.]

Lately I've focused mainly on what T-Bond futures would need to do to get out of serious jeopardy. A rally to 147^27 would be a good start for the March contract.  But suppose the next big move is down, not up. The new chart shows that the June contract could fall all the way to 127^31 in search of a solid bottom. That would equate to a rate of 3.75% on the 30-year, currently trading around 3.13%. I cannot predict what the U.S. and global economies might look like if that were to occur, but it's a pretty good bet that the housing and auto sectors would be in a deep funk.  Wouldn't the implied recession bring rates back down?  Indeed it would, although it might take an extremely steep plunge in economic output to cause this to occur. For me, at least, the scariest thing of all is my very long-term target for interest rates on long-term Treasuries.  I've projected 0.6% (!), but I would not deign to predict what the economy would look like at that point. Point-six percent on the Long Bond -- and, correspondingly, zero-point-zero on the Ten-Year -- are not so farfetched if you can imagine every investor on the planet fleeing to 'quality' in the space of just a few weeks. _______ UPDATE (March 13, 10:53 p.m. EDT): A rally to the 145^05 target shown is in-the-bag, but the short-to-intermediate-term picture would brighten even more if bulls can close this vehicle above that number for two consecutive days or trade more than six ticks above it intraday. ________ UPDATE (March 14, 7:14 p.m.): The futures rallied to within a tick of the 145^05 target I'd proffered here yesterday as a lock-up. To be certain the rally isn't just a flash-in-the-pan, let's set a high

Although tracking gold for the many Rick's Picks subscribers who are in it for the long haul has been tedious in recent years, don't worry about my being asleep at the wheel when bullion someday turns higher for real.  It could happen with a powerful lurch; or, more likely in my view, a soft launch that breaks free of gravity so gradually that even gold bugs won't know it is happening.  We've been encouraged by false starts so many times since gold topped in 2011 just above $1900 that many are bound to be skeptical when a true bull market finally emerges, as it eventually will. For all we know it could happen next week, although the odds are against it. Still, all we need do to accurately gauge bulls' mettle is to observe how they interact with Hidden Pivot levels on the lesser charts. Currently our short-term benchmarks lie at 1331.90 and 1350.50 -- respectively, the midpoint pivot and the 'D' target of the pattern shown. As always, and easy move through either of these 'hidden' resistance points would command our attention, since it would signal unusual strength relative to what gold has done in recent months.  Stay tuned if precision is important to you. ______ UPDATE (March 15, 6:35 p.m. EDT): Seldom has gold failed to disappoint us in recent months. This time it has pulled back from within an inch of the 1331.90 pivot noted above.  Were the futures to punch through it, I would turn ultra-cautiously bullish.  The good news is that sellers -- other than when there is news helpful to their bullying precious metals lower -- are as utterly lacking in conviction as buyers.

Bloomberg news has the effrontery to ask: Did Trump Just Start a Global Trade War?  Although even MSNBC pit bull Rachel Maddow  treats the President with more deference than Bloomberg.com,  it's still a fair question to ask.  Judging from the way the stock market has flounced around recently, Wall Street's answer to the question is an emphatic "maybe."  For once, the Street seems to have gotten it half-right.  The bill Trump signed on Thursday will place tariffs of 25% and 10%, respectively, on steel and aluminum. Europe has responded by wondering aloud who Trump sees as the enemy.  Not Canada or Mexico, to be sure, because they are exempt.  Conciliatory as this may seem, it is overshadowed by the President's promise to enact still more tariffs in the months ahead. There is no question that this will unsettle the markets for the foreseeable future and dominate the business pages, eventually moving to the front page above the fold. On days when stocks have risen, the talking heads and know-nothing pundits will give us reasons why Trump's brand of protectionism poses no great threat to the global economy. But on days when stocks fall hard, their tune will change: they will blame Trump directly, and very loudly, for all that ails the stock market. My hunch is that at the end of the day --at the end of 2018, actually -- the down days will outnumber the up days and stocks will be trading lower, perhaps very significantly so.

The stock market's nervous ups and downs on Wednesday left little room for a confident call, even on the short-term trend. However, in the current batch of touts I've singled out Boeing as the stock most likely to lead the broad averages higher if the week is to finish on an upswing. Although I've saved my detailed analysis for paid subscribers, I'll note for the benefit of casual followers of Rick's Picks that a two-day close above 348.80 would probably carry the week not only for Boeing, but for the stock market as a whole.  BA closed on Tuesday at 347.06, exactly $1.74 from my bullish trigger point.