Rick Ackerman

Index futures have plunged Tuesday night on news that Gary Cohn, Trump's top economic adviser, is resigning. The selloff has brought the E-Mini futures down to within an inch of triggering a 'mechanical' buy I'd flagged at 2687.00. Ordinarily I'd say jump on it using the precautions I'd advised to set up a low-risk entry point.  After all, who the heck is Gary Cohn, anyway?  I could not have answered that question myself until an hour ago, and that's why "buying the news" would seem to be a no-brainer here, especially seeing how brutally DaBoyz' have shaken the tree this evening to produce bargains. But Cohn, as it happens, was the chief opponent of Trump's plan to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum. This means having him out of the way could smooth the way for policy change that could conceivably have dire consequences for world trade. Some market historians have tied the 1929 stock market collapse and the gyrations that preceded it to ongoing headlines concerning the Smoot Hawley bill as it worked its way through Congress (see inset). The evidence is persuasive that the law's embrace of protectionist sentiment -- it raised tariffs to record levels on more than 20,000 imported goods -- was a key factor in triggering the stock market crash and the Great Depression. Hoover's Legacy Is history repeating itself?  If so, we should see the markets become increasingly volatile, especially whenever price movement is accompanied by news concerning Trump's protectionist regime. It may seem like background noise as legislative haggling plays out on Capitol Hill. But let's remain open minded to the possibility that tariff talk will be the death knell of the great bull market begun exactly nine years ago.  In the first two weeks of June 1930, just before President Herbert Hoover

I was skeptical that Friday's phony-baloney short-squeeze would get very far, but the rally could quickly mutate into the real deal if leadership from stocks such as Boeing (see update below), AMZN and AAPL continues to gain momentum. Elsewhere on the page, I've detailed precisely what Boeing in particular must do to shift into high gear. It is a bellwether that we've tracked very closely, mainly because the stock is an excellent proxy for companies that sell real things, as opposed to digital widgets.

The sinuous beauty of the pattern shown should make the E-Minis very predictable in the days ahead. Specifically, if the futures pop decisively above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2728.38; or better yet, close for two consecutive days above it, they would become a very strong bet to reach the 2809.75 target. Moreover, we could expect a pullback from within a point or two of that number -- one that aggressive traders could use to get short with a stop-loss as tight as six ticks. The foregoing is based on Monday's precise stall at the red line. Let's see how it plays out. I will advise if any low-risk trade set-ups occur along the way. For now, be aware that a retracement to the green line (2687) would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 2646.75. I am not specifically recommending this tactic, however, because of the $2000-per-contract entry risk. Stay tuned to the chat room if the opportunity to substitute a low-risk alternative entry method such as 'camouflage' should arise. _______ UPDATE (March 6, 7:15): The futures have fallen somewhat beneath the 2687 threshold where' I'd suggested that traders place a mechanical' bid, stop 2646.75. In practice, I am still advising you to substitute a 'camouflage' entry set-up that would use an uptrending abc pattern on the 3- or 5-minute chart. This is the least risky way I can advise to get aboard, but it will require the diligent attention of, presumably, night owls. The buying pattern is a pretty good one, and that means if our 'mechanical' trade fails to produce a profit, we should grow more cautious toward stocks. Click here for the chart.

The futures generated a robustly bullish impulse leg before the final bell on Friday, although the pattern shown looks like it will need a somewhat lower point 'C' to become tradeable. For the time being we can use the A-B leg shown to project a rally target in the early going on Monday. If the futures should pull back by a few points to start the day, my gut feeling is that a conventional entry at the subsequent 'x' will produce a winning trade. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 10:14 EST): The futures opened on a gap down Sunday afternoon, but the lower point 'C'  this produced did little for us. If you entered 'conventionally' at X, the subsequent rally to p=2687.50 would have allowed you to take a partial profit there and lower your break-even to 2674.00. When ES dipped below that price you'd have been stopped out five hours after initiating the trade with a loss of perhaps a tick or two on each of two contracts. As of the moment, my short-term bias is bearish, based on the 15-minute chart where A =2721.75 on 3/1.

Gold hasn't earned an extravagant rally projection, so we'll stick with the little stuff for the time being.  I'd said we could look for bull trades if the April contract pushed above 1335.60, and that advice still obtains. However, the pattern shown would create a buying reason at a slightly lower threshold. Specifically, if the futures can push a point or so above the 1333.50 target, you can start looking for a 'camouflage' play on, say, the one-minute chart. Pivoteers, please take note: Based on this pattern, April Gold tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal on Friday when it dipped beneath the green line at 1320.30.  Following the simple rules for this type of trade, subscribers would have cashed out half of a four-contract position at 1324.70 for a gain of nearly $900. _______ UPDATE March 6, 8:24 p.m. EST): April Gold performed slightly better than we'd asked of it. Now let's see if it can achieve -- and perhaps surpass -- the 1367.50 midpoint pivot shown in this chart. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for the near term.  If the futures should reach or slightly exceed it and then pull back to the green line, that would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1303.50. _______ UPDATE (March 8, 6:31 p.m.):  For tonight's assignment I will suggest reading a dozen or so Gold touts for various contract months that have been archived. This will give you a perspective on why, no matter how bullish my forecast is for a given day, my big-picture advice is to expect disappointment for the foreseeable future.  DaBoyz are not taking gold significantly higher until they are good and ready. This will require a sea change in Wall Street's status quo, which is to buy stocks, sell bonds, sell

A bull market target at 26,705 that I offered here on Friday remains relevant, but here is another at 27,456 that could generate a very important top.  Assuming one, or both, are reached, I would expect a tradeable pullback from within a few points of either number. Of course, there is the possibility that the nine-year-old bull market ended with the 26,616 high recorded during the last week in January. If so, we should see the hard selloff that began on February 27 from 25,800 exceed its 22,822 target. This is the first time I've mentioned this number, but because of Friday's price action, I would now rate it no worse than an even-odds bet to be achieved. Yes, the broad averages did recover sharply on Friday due to ferocious short-covering ahead of the weekend. Rick's Picks precisely anticipated this in a tout sent out last  Wednesday that said the Indoos, which had fallen more than 400 points that day,  would become a "screaming buy" if they plunged a further 400-plus points to exactly 24196. In actuality, the Dow on Friday trampolined 375 points after bottoming at 24217 -- just 21 points from the 'screaming-buy' threshold.  Many subscribers, using various trading vehicles, reported using this guidance to get long at or near the intraday low. Let me emphasize, however, that from a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the bounce occurred only after the initial sell-off had seriously damaged the look of the daily chart. Specifically, sellers drove the Indoos decisively beneath the 24,311 'midpoint support' shown in this chart. If the Dow were to close for two consecutive days beneath it, I'd infer that more downside to 22,822 was very likely.

'Mechanical' trades should be getting your attention by now, especially since Friday's guidance for the Dow could have gotten you aboard a 375-point rally just a few points off the intraday low. The same applied to Boeing, which bottomed on the green line where we typically place 'mechanical' bids. (The stop-loss would have been at 317.38, a tick beneath the point 'C' low.)  There was implied entry risk of $6800 on a four-lot purchase, so this trade was not for everyone, even experienced Pivoteers. However, keep in mind that when 'mechanical' entries like this one are generated, one can 'convert' the signals to a camouflage or counterintuitive set-ups to reduce theoretical risk to a small fraction of what it would be if you trade the big pattern. Whether you acted or not, the fact that Boeing signaled a buy at the green line should tip your bias bullish when stocks start to trade again Sunday evening. _______ UPDATE (March 5, 6:55 p.m.): Boeing ended the day above the 351.61 midpoint Hidden Pivot.  If it can do it again on Tuesday, or trade 354.00 or higher intraday, I'd make the stock an odds-on bet to achieve the 385.83 target shown in the chart. ________ UPDATE (March 6, 8:33 p.m.): Tuesday's pop created a bullish impulse leg on the 30-minute chart (although not on the hourly), but I am skeptical the pattern will produce a winner in the form of a move to the 364.62 target shown. Let's watch and wait.

AAPL, the most valuable company in the world, looked unstoppable on Friday -- as though buyers were ready to jump on the stock no matter how badly the broad averages were getting pounded. It drew strong support on the first bar of the day, when its canny handlers opened the stock $2 beneath the previous day's close. Now, if it pushes easily past the 176.96 rally target shown, look for the broad averages to hang tough, inspired by AAPL's stalwart leadership. ______ UPDATE (March 5, 7:26 p.m.): Buyers did not exactly shred a path higher, but they did most of their buying above the red line, shortening the odds of a further rally to the 181.26 target shown. As long as the stock is moving higher, the broad averages will follow.

Two key bellwethers, Apple and Boeing, looked poised on Friday to lead the market higher when trading resumes Sunday night. However my latest update for the Dow Industrials is skeptical about the staying power of this rally. It looked like knee-jerk short-covering, and although that is no reason to get in buyers' way, we should be cautious before joining in the revelry. My hunch is that it will be short-lived.