Rick Ackerman

The Dollar Index will break out if it trades above 91.00 -- just 36 cents above Wednesday's close.  This could hold very significant implications for...everything: stocks, bonds, bullion, you name it. DXY's bear market has yet to breach the 88.29 target I drum-rolled here and at FXStreet.com months ago. When it made a secondary bottom at 88.25 a couple of weeks ago, I suggested ignoring it, since the breach was not technically significant. Subscribers interested in a more complete technical picture should view the recording of Wednesday's tutorial session. Click here to access it.

Much as I've dissed gold in recent weeks, the chart shown is bullish for one reason: the January high at 1370.50 exceeded the peak made four months earlier by 50 cents. That's not much, but it makes the entire rally from December's 1242.70 low bullishly impulsive on the daily chart. It also implies that April Gold could fall a further $75 without negating the bullishness of the chart. But how do we get long without suffering the damage and disappointment bullion has been inflicting on true believers for so long?  For starters, I'll suggest focusing on the possible 'counterintuitive' set-up that is taking shape on this chart.  A point 'C' low in the range  1307.20-1310.30 would look pretty tempting, and that is what I recommend you look for. I may not be in the chat room if it triggers, but just ask any Pivoteer for guidance if the trade sets up in the way I've noted. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:45p.m.): Gold popped today, but from a 1304.70 low just beneath the range I'd specified to trip a 'counterintuitive' buy signal. We can start looking for another way to get long above 1335.60, since that would activate a bullish pattern with upside potential to as high as 1431.40 (daily chart, A=1242.70 on 12/12/17).

Can AAPL hold up the stock market?  The last upthrust was so powerful that the question is not so farfetched. My hunch is that there was a little bravado in AAPL's struggle against the tide on Wednesday. But if the stock were to fall into the range 171-175 and then turn sharply higher, that could supply the kick the broad averages need to reverse course.  Regardless, Pivoteers should focus on the prospect of a 'counterintuitive' buy if the stock rallies 2.40 points from just above the 174.12 low labeled 'A' in the chart. ________ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:55 p.m.): AAPL once again looked impressive swimming against a strong tide.  We'll reserve our enthusiasm, however, until such time as the stock closes above 177.47 for two consecutive days. That would make a further ascent to 182.27 an odds-on bet. On the daily chart, here are the coordinates for the bullish pattern: A= 171.01 on 2/21; B= 180.62 on 2/28.

The Dow has fallen nearly 800 points since topping Tuesday just a micron shy of the 25803 'midpoint pivot' shown in the chart.  Now, if the Indoos were to shed another 800 points, we'd probably hear a bearish drumbeat from the usual naysayers. However, from a technical perspective based on the Hidden Pivot Method, the blue chip average would become a screaming 'mechanical' buy if it were to fall to the green line at 24,196. The stop-loss would be at 23,359 -- a big one. Fortunately, we have many ways to reduce it by 90% or more if and when the opportunity arises. Please note that a somewhat riskier 'mechanical'  buy signal was already tripped at the orange line (25032), but the 24,474 stop-loss  it would require to hold the position seems a tad too tight to handle a correction worthy of the name, assuming this is one. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:021): Sellers made a good-faith ever to kick some butt Thursday, but they'll need to push this brick another 250 lower points to activate the 'mechanical' buy signal noted above.

From a technical standpoint, the S&Ps and the Dow rolled down from interesting places on Tuesday. The Indoos sputtered out precisely at the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a long-term pattern projecting above 28,000 mentioned here earlier. For their part, the E-Mini S&Ps died 20 points shy of a rally target that had looked like a lock-up. Taken together these things make me, if not bearish, then certainly cautious. Like just about everyone else who follows the markets, when I greet the new day, I take it as a given that the Dow will levitate at least 150-200 points. This expectation has become so ingrained in me that mental warning bells have begun to sound.  Few are prepared for the economic disaster that a bear market would bring. Goldman Sachs says that 4.5% on the Ten-Year Note would probably pull stocks down by 25%, but that the economy would slog through it. My gut feeling is that 4.5% on the Ten-Year would bring the Dow down by more than half just for starters and that the economy would look like a statistical war zone. Is anyone really ready for this, even those of us who have been bearish since...forever?

I mentioned a bull market target of 28245 for the Dow Industrials the other day, but here's a nice picture of it (click on inset). It was confirmed by Tuesday's pullback from within less than 3 points of the midpoint Hidden Pivot, shown as a red line at 25803.  We have no way of knowing for sure whether the Indoos will eventually trade above the line, but this seems far more likely than that today's high will turn out to have been the bull market's last hurrah.  If and when the Dow closes for two consecutive days above 25803, it'll become an odds-on bet to reach a minimum p2=27,024, and no worse than even odds to hit D=28245. If you're keen on shorting the Mother of All Tops, please note that the pullback from D, assuming it is reached, can be expected to be as precise as the one we saw today from the 25803 midpoint pivot. There are no guarantees that that will be THE top, but using the pivot to get short, we should be able to bet on it with risk very tightly controlled.

With all the gloom and doom on how much farther the stock market has yet to fall we need to step back and ask ourselves "What if this low holds and we start to climb higher over the coming months?" We could be setting ourselves up for a slingshot move to 32,913 that will shock the world. When we start to see the hoi polloi who were busy chasing the last mania (bitcoin) move into the general stock market is when we will know we are near a top.  Although we don't trade weekly charts the theoretical entry at 25,748.7 is upon us and we should be on the lookout for signs on charts of lessor degree that this bull is just getting started. So throw out your preconceptions and ignore the media fabricated narratives and let the numbers and hidden pivot signposts simply tell us exactly what the market wants to do.  [Tout prepared by David Isham]

A key aspect of Hidden Pivot analysis holds that if a rally target is exceeded easily, the uptrend should be presumed bound for a target of still-higher degree. In my latest tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, I've flagged a minor target that lies 25 points above Monday's high. It seems likely to be achieved, but I will wait until this happens before I wax confident about even higher targets. Even so, the chart included with today's tout shows that, in the context of a longer-term uptrend, a key resistance has already been exceeded, auguring prices well above the 2809.75 target featured here lately. Moreover, the major resistance was overcome so easily that the lesser one at 2809.75 seems likely to get demolished, whether it takes hours, days or even weeks. For now, we'll simply observe (and trade when opportune), letting the futures tell us very clearly what they intend.

Monday's maniacal leap brought the futures to within 29 points of the 2809.75 target drum-rolled here earlier.  There is little doubt this Hidden Pivot resistance will be reached, although I expect a potentially tradeable pullback from within a point or so of it. That's because the pattern I've used to calculate the target is so clear and compelling. However, if the March E-mini S&P were to push past the target with ease, that would imply there is significant buying power remaining to be spent.  Regardless, I will be monitoring the lesser charts closely once stocks are again in record-high territory, since anything above the old highs would create ideal conditions for a wicked trap designed by Mr. Market to snare bulls and bear alike. Putting my heightened cautiousness aside, the futures already look like a good bet to reach the 2988.75 target shown. That would equate to a Dow rally to 28245. ______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 7:22 p.m.): The selloff generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart with the futures 20 points shy of a 2809.75 target that had looked like a lock-up. The yellow flag is out and would turn red if the selloff takes out last week's 2682.00 low. ________ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:04 p.m.): The breach of the green line is now decisive, implying the futures are bound for a minimum 2615.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a bearish pattern projecting to as low as 2440.25.