Rick Ackerman

The 2569.50 target shown can be used as a minimum downside target if stocks get hit again on Tuesday. It will remain valid as long as 2697.00 has not been exceeded to the upside.  A second pattern that could be useful in determining an alternative low for this remarkable sell-off can be fashioned using the 2696.00 point 'C' of the pattern shown as the point 'A' high of a new, downtrending ABC.  I have not done so, however, because the futures seemed likely to get short-squeezed higher Monday night, leaving point 'C' uncertain at the moment. If the futures go no higher than 2634.75, the resulting pattern would indicate slippage to at least 2584.00, with a worst-case destination of 2533.50. I will clarify this before Tuesday's opening, depending on how high the futures have traded overnight. ______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 6:02 a.m. EST): The futures bottomed overnight at 2529.00, a few points beneath the target given above, before rallying a spectacular 115 points to a so-far high at 2644.50. They have since slipped back and are currently trading around 2621.00, but if they can decisively exceed the 2630.63 midpoint pivot shown they would become an odds-on bet to reach 2662.50. Click here for new chart.

If the Masters of the Universe were planning to pull the plug on the nine-year-old bull market, do you think they'd have run AMZN up $100 and closed it $40 higher on Friday when every other stock in the world was getting schmeissed? I don't think so.  AMZN is the Fat Lady who has yet to sing, and it looks primed for a run-up to at least 1541.06 before the final aria. If the broad averages have rallied to marginal new all-time highs at that time, the cynic in me would be very wary of Mr. Market's intentions. It would set the hook as well as any scenario I could imagine, trapping bulls and bears alike. The former would be giddy about who-knows-what -- National Jell-o Week? -- and the latter would be panicked out of their long-tortured minds.

This is the first appearance of a marijuana stock on the touts list, but I can assure you it won’t be the last. I plan to give the sector increasing coverage as it continues to mature. In that regard, I’d informally mentioned a potential ‘mechanical’ trade taking shape a week ago in BUDZ, a firm that aspires to be a giant in the business as cannabis becomes increasingly legal across the U.S.  On Monday, a subscriber reminded me of my guidance, but I discovered that the trade had triggered earlier in the session, putting us a step behind it. What I will therefore suggest is that you paper trade this recommendation as it evolves, the better to familiarize yourself with the ‘mechanical’ entry tactic that is being used with growing frequency by Rick’s Picks subscribers to take advantage of enticing opportunities that require tight management of risk. In this instance, for purposes of paper-trading, I will record 400 shares acquired for 10.01 and tie them to a stop-loss at 6.95.We’ll plan on exiting half of the position if the stock rallies to the red line (13.06) without dipping below 6.96 first. The remaining 200 shares would be held for a shot at 19.16, the rally pattern’s ‘D’ target. The pattern is fairly compelling as far as ‘mechanical’ set-ups go. However, there are particular risks, since BUDZ’s price swings are every bit as wild as Bitcoin’s. As such, trading the stock will put the ‘mechanical’ entry tactic to the test. If you’re interested to see how we do, and in adapting the Hidden Pivot Method to your trading needs, I invite you to follow along. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 5:08 p.m.): Friday's avalanche on Wall Street stopped out the position for a theoretical loss of $1224. Wild as BUDZ is, instead

The chart is one of the most important we have considered; for if T-Bond futures are about to fall to the 130^20 target shown, we will be living in a very different world, economically speaking. For one, it would imply that rates on the 30-Year Bond, currently around 3.1%, are headed to at least 3.6%.  Could the economy handle this? The answer, manifestly, is yes, since the implied rate rise could not occur in the first place if at some point along the way it sends the economy into recession. But it would surely bring the economy to the brink of one even under the most optimistic assumptions, since mortgage and auto lease rates would be at asphyxiating levels. The most likely scenario I can imagine: The economy, far from booming as the current, shrieking hubris would have it, stagnates at 2% real growth or less.  As for a serious outbreak of inflation, I am still very much in the deflationist camp, extremely skeptical that inflation is possible other than in stocks and real estate. Returning  to the technical picture,  the 145^02 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart must hold if the futures are to avoid a collapse down to 130^20. Friday’s breach of the support was slight, and its location is inexact because the chart is blended from many contract months. My guess is that the ‘true’ support lies about a point lower, near 144^02. In any case, we’ll be watching this vehicle closely for a nasty downdraft from these levels, since that presumably would signal a steep rise in interest rates. (Note: My earlier forecast for 3.11% on the Ten-Year Note still obtains. On Friday it hit 2.85%, up from 2.55% when the forecast first appeared here.) _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 7:03 p.m. EST): The futures

On January 24, with the E-Mini S&Ps in a steep climb and trading around 2840, I wrote here that I "expect to see real stopping power within perhaps 4-7 points either way of 2868.50."  Two days later the futures made a high at exactly 2878.50 (see inset) from which they have since fallen 121 points. Is The Top in? My gut feeling is no, that once this correction has run its course we will see a renewed push to at least marginal new highs before the nine-year-old bull market ends. There is also a chance that any such resurgence would produce more than a nominal high, going all the way to 3270 before the bull breathes its last. I raise the prospect of failure at a nominal new record high only because it would set up the nastiest bull trap I could conceive of. It would turn bulls giddy once again while forcing shorts to cover with reckless abandon. That, as far as I can imagine, would put a fitting end to a seemingly invincible bull market. For the moment, however, we can only ride out the current selloff, which seems likely to continue. A further fall of just 82 points would wipe out 2018's spectacular gains and muffle Wall Street's hubris for a blessed while.  It could then take weeks or even months to build a base for a rally to new highs. For now let's simply enjoy the show, secure in the knowledge that we cannot be fooled if we observe the process in a disciplined, mechanical way. For starters, that will entail placing an alert at 2651.50, where a print would turn the daily chart impulsively bearish for the first time in more than two years.

We'll quit while we're ahead, having ridden calls purchased a couple of weeks ago for 0.36 to as high as 3.80 on Friday -- a more than tenfold increase. Over the last eighteen months or so, we've logged four very profitable trades in the little sonofabitch and four small losses. The trick lay in becoming increasingly picky about our entries. The last coincided with the 26.32 target shown. It was sufficiently clear and compelling that it cried out to be bought, and so we did.  The trade took longer than we might have expected to get airborne, but once it left the launching pad there was little doubt about its potential. Subscribers were advised to cash out  half of their positions when the option price doubled a week ago, leaving them with at least one contract to swing for the fences. This will likely be the last time VXX appears on the touts page for a long time, since there are no downside targets remaining that are remotely as enticing as the one we just used. Indeed, anyone betting on a volatility spike in this vehicle based merely on a hunch has better odds of picking five winners in a night at the races.  And incidentally, if VXX pokes its ugly little snout up on Monday morning because the S&Ps have continued to implode, beware of a possible top at 33.99. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 6:48 p.m. EST): VXX exploded with today's huge decline in the S&Ps. If you hold any calls, I'd strongly recommend scaling them out intraday, since, even under the best of circumstances, the top of this move will be fleeting; its detumescence swift and punitive for those who hold onto option positions for even an hour too long.

Bulls got sandbagged last week, paying as much as $174 on Thursday for shares that would trade $15 lower 12 hours later. They're not going to forget how they were sucker-punched either, so look for a tough slog if and when AAPL rallies back into the danger zone between around 165 and 174.  For now, though, we should expect at least some sort of bounce from the 159.53 target shown. This Hidden Pivot support is  sufficiently clear and compelling that no bounce would be akin to the Phil the groundhog seeing his shadow: yet more weeks of winter. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 8:37 p.m.): Assuming the stock market doesn't get buried for a third consecutive day, I'll be looking for AAPL to turn from a Hidden Pivot support at 153.78. On the 15-minute chart, A=168.10 on 2/1.  I have NOT used overnight bars to calculate this target. [Late-breaking note: If I did, 156.43, which as of 6:10 a.m. has been slightly exceeded, would look appealing as a possible bottoming spot.]  _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 6:08 p.m.) AAPL looks headed down to at least 149.10, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. You can widen it if you've made money on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 6:11 p.m.): Buyers turned AAPL higher from a 150.24 low that was well above the 149.10 target flagged in my last update. This is mildly bullish, but the stock would need to push above 161.00, the penultimate of two recent peaks recorded on the way down, to turn the hourly chart bullish. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 6:36 p.m.): With a rally to 163,89, AAPL has done more than we'd asked of it. To be certain, though, let's ask buyers to

Because of the ease with which crude oil futures have blown past some ostensibly daunting targets, I've projected a move into the low-to-mid-$70s, at least.  Technically speaking, however, we'll need to take the rally one fairly predictable leg at a time.  In that regard, Thursday's price action suggests buyers are in need of rest -- perhaps moreso than at any other time during the last month. I say this because the 66.54 target shown, a moderately important Hidden Pivot resistance, neatly contained the most recent upthrust. If bulls had had enough energy to push the March contract still higher over the next 3-5 days, they would have been able to exceed 66.54 by more than just a few pennies. In any event, we'll sit back and enjoy their pain in the days ahead.  The first hint of trouble, basis the March contract, would come on a print at  61.77, just beneath a minor 'external' low recorded January 9 on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Jan  31, 5:53 p.m.): The futures have popped through the green line with enough force that a further rally to at least 65.48 seems assured. If buyers shred that resistance, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, it would portend more upside to the 67.28 target in the days ahead. _______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 6:20 p.m.): Friday's swoon tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at 64.57, stop 63.66, for a shot at the 67.28 target shown _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 8:43 p.m.): Move to the sidelines for now, since the badly constipated uptrend has stopped out the mechanical trade.  There were no reports in the chat room of anyone having taken a position.

GLD looks light and frisky as it continues to frolic above the red line (see inset), a midpoint Hidden Pivot that has become support. This strongly implies that its dance is a consolidation for a push to the 130.84 target shown. Let's try a mechanical entry if there's another pullback to the red line. Bid 124.15 for 200 shares, stop 121.88, good through Monday. I may provide an alternative trade using call options, but that will require perfect timing and perhaps a 'camouflage' set-up to get us aboard.  If you need guidance for this in real time, check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard and drop in on the chat room should GLD come down to within 0.15-0.20 points of 124.12. ______ UPDATE (Jan 15, 5:17 p.m.): GLD has taken flight today without first deferring to our niggardly bid. Oh well. The immediate target and minimum price objective is p2=127.54. The target can be adjusted upward to 130.92, a Hidden Pivot that comes from the daily chart (click here to see it).  If there's a pullback that affords us a good 'mechanical' opportunity to get long I will provide further, timely guidance via the chat room and 'Email Notifications.'  _______ UPDATE (Jan 21, 5:04 p.m.): GLD has traded as high as 127.22 -- just shy of the target. I remain confident 130.92 will eventually be reached. In the meantime, a pullback to the red line (124.16) should be used to buy this vehicle 'mechanically.'  In the week ahead, bid there for two round lots, stop 121.90. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:47 p.m.):  If GLD is about to reverse direction and head into the 130s, the 126.36 Hidden Pivot support shown is a logical and promising place for the turn to occur. I am not explicitly recommending bottom-fishing at that price,