Rick Ackerman

The rally stalled at 2698.00, precisely where we had anticipated, but the shallow pullback that has occurred since suggests the futures are going higher.  Those who went short at the target as I'd advised can manage the risk as they see fit, but I would recommend a stop-loss that would preserve at least a small profit on the trade if it's hit.  The next leg up can be expected to produce an equally precise stall at the 2710.50 target shown. Get short a single contract with a 2710.25 offer, stop 2712.25, but you can step up the size to four contracts if you've made money on the way to the target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 12:18 p.m. EST): After head-butting my 2698.00 target for two days but going no higher, ESH18 has dropped the 9.75 points needed to manage the risk 1:3. Take a partial profit here if you've been short. If and when bulls catch their breath, exceeding 2698.00, the 2710.25 target will be in play. A dip below 2674.25 would hint of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 5:53 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

This week's economic news will include reports each day on some aspect of the housing industry: sales, starts, buyer confidence and prices. I'd made much of the downturn in the housing sector earlier this year, when I'd assumed recession was just around the bend. Car sales were starting to falter badly as well. Now, with just two more weeks left in 2017, housing sales have revived, even if prices have receded somewhat from their peaks. The car industry is another matter, however, as the table (click on inset) makes clear. A mixed picture, for sure, but not one that would seem to threaten recession. A recession will happen eventually, triggered not because of a weakening housing market or falling auto sales, but because stocks have fallen sharply for reasons that will not be apparent at the time.

After shedding two round lots (from an original four) at 18062, the tracking position initiated a week ago with an explicit instruction to get long at exactly 16042 has produced a theoretical gain of $10,292. The underlying vehicle, listed under the symbol BRTI, is a CME product that aggregates order-book bids and offers from major exchanges.  If we are able to close out the remainder of the position at 22104, my original rally target, the total profit would be $16164.   Instead, to play it more conservatively, I'll recommend exiting a third round lot at 20616, the Hidden Pivot target shown. The target is of smaller degree than 22104, and I expect a stall there or perhaps worse. If the order gets filled, the tracking position will still hold a single round lot for a potential ride to 22104.  This is the third bitcoin trade offered by Rick's Picks and shared with followers of FXStreet.com.  The first produced a theoretical gain of about $2100; the second, a loss of about $400. _______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 5:56 p.m. EST): If you did the original trade and are still long two round lots, bid 17319 for two more round lots, stop 16219, good till noon Tuesday. This trade is intended only for those who have booked profits according to the guidance given above.

No sooner did I mention that El Toro is long overdue for a rest than, voila!, the Dow drops 77 points, closing on the low of the day. This suggests we are likely to see some more selling into week's end. My latest update for the E-Mini S&Ps offers a precise benchmark for gauging whether the downtrend is turning menacing. _______ UPDATE (Dec 15, 9:29 a.m.): Menacing?  Not today, evidently. Index futures are trading moderately higher just ahead of the opening bell. Although this may turn out to have been distribution, it is too timid to suggest that anything interesting or different might lie in store for stocks today. They seem eager to waft higher on autopilot as usual, with obvious help from short-covering bears.

After a steep run-up just before Halloween, AAPL turned boring and remains in an apparent consolidation with the potential to power a move to as high as 194.77. The initial push past the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 168.49, was strong enough to suggest there's enough juice to achieve the target.  AAPL subsequently became a theoretical 'mechanical' buy on the pullback to the red line, but I would recommend doing so only via a 'camouflage' set-up, assuming you know how the trade works. A 'mechanical' bid could be used at the green line (155.34), stop 142.19, but there are no guarantees the stock will fall that far before it begins its presumptive ascent to 194.77.

The broad average are supposed to do nothing on days when the FOMC has something to say. Instead, just ahead of Wednesday's 25-basis-point rate hike, the Dow wafted 160 points higher, thumbing its nose at tradition. Perhaps a 160-point rally IS doing nothing these days, since stocks have been rising about five times as often as they fall. The rally was a presumptive downpayment on the 25113 target we've been using to stay comfortably on the right side of the trend. If it gives way easily, we could be looking at 27252, the last Hidden Pivot target of significance that can be extrapolated from the weekly chart.

We can continue to use 2680.50 as a minimum upside target for the near term, but if it is exceeded on a closing basis or by more than 3.50 points intraday, the Hidden Pivot shown at 2695.50 will be well in play. Notice that the first time buyers encountered the 2650.25 midpoint pivot on the follow-through (C-D) leg, they blew past it on a gap. That considerably shortened the odds of a continuation up to 2695.50. I estimate that it has an 85% chance of being reached, presumably within the next 3-5 trading days. The rally yielded an absolutely unbeatable 'mechanical' entry opportunity on last week's pullback to the green line, but if you attempt it belatedly at the red line, you should limit your entry tactic to a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Dec 14, 4:16 p.m.): Today's moderate sell-off would turn ever-so-slightly menacing if it exceeds the 2649.25 low that I've labeled in this chart. It would take a print below 2605.00, however, to invalidate the 2695.50 target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 8:53 p.m.): The gratuitous swoon that ended the week will have no bearing on the analysis above, other than to delay a move-to-target by a day or two._______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 8:50 a.m.): The March-contract (ESH18) equivalent to the 2695.50 target given for the December futures is 2698.00, and it is confirmed by some precise hits at p=2652.13 (60-min, A= 2569.00 on 11/19). But you'll need to leave room for a run-up to as high as 2710.00 for this rally to max out, since the 'marquee' A used to project that target is distinctive enough to look usable. Short 2698.00 with a 2701.25 stop-loss, but do the trade ONLY IF YOU USED THE ORIGINAL, 2695.50 target for the December contract to stay long for at least part

With today's thrust, February Gold has extended its rally from 1238.30, a bottom recorded on Monday that could prove to be important. It occurred less than a dollar from a target we'd used that had been three months in coming. A bounce lasting another 3-4 days would be appropriate if the larger downtrend is fated to resume. In any case, the rally would need to surpass the 1321.00 peak labeled in the chart to demonstrate real staying power. The futures should be traded with a bullish bias in the meantime. I haven't established a tracking position because getting long at the low required bidding a few ticks above where I'd suggested. Subscribers who traded my guidance aggressively and got long nonetheless have enough of a cushion by now to relax and do as they please. The so-far high of the move is 1259.70, representing a $21.40 reversal. _______ UPDATE (Dec 14, 4:36 p.m. EST): Wednesday's mildly promising rally turned flaccid after buyers failed to maintain altitude above the previous Tuesday's high. I've downsized my short-term outlook with a small pattern yielding a 1272.10 target. Critical resistance is at 1262.50, somewhat above today's peak. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 9:34 p.m.): Gold head-faked above 1262.50 on Friday, then died. Consider this trading vehicle worthy of our attention only if it pops above 1271.80 or falls below 1242.30. The 1272.10 target given above remains valid. _______ UPDATE (Dec 20, 6:01 p.m.): No change in my guidance. Although today's high at 1271.40 came very close, it did not satisfy my requirement.

Ain't it just like Wall Street (and its official house organ, The Wall Street Journal) to get all lathered up over supposed tax reforms that have little more substance to them than the usual, stinking heap of manure we've come to expect from Congress?  I made a similar point recently in discussing some fine print in the tax bill that would retain the alternative minimum tax for corporations. It were as though the Magna Carta had featured a provision to draw and quarter anyone caught stealing a loaf of bread.  So what else is in the fine print?  On Tuesday we learned about a provision that would deny equity investors the ability to choose which shares they sell to reduce a position. In the future, if the Senate has its way, any shares sold will be reckoned for tax purposes on a first-in, first-out basis. This is guaranteed to raise one's tax bill if the shares have been rising.  The proposed change is certain to stimulate significant year-end selling ahead of the new law. Business as Usual on the Hill And here's the kicker: If we needed further proof that we are represented solely by jackasses on Capitol Hill, it is this: The FIFO measure would raise a paltry $2.4 billion over the next ten years.  And that's assuming taxpayers do nothing to end-run the levy.  Adds the Journal, "Some money managers and analysts say there has been so little discussion of the [change] that investors may be surprised to learn that [it] could reduce -- or even wipe out -- what they would save from an income  tax reduction."  In the meantime, the spectacle of the stock market climbing vertically in anticipation of all the wonderful things the tax bill supposedly will do for the economy would be a