Rick Ackerman

Gold's long dirge has had a 1237.40 Hidden Pivot support as its no-brainer target since mid-October. In the interim, the only useful advice I've been able to give you was to treat each rally as a cruel tease. Now, with the February contract closing on our number, it's okay to become slightly interested, since there may be a bottom-fishing opportunity. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 1237.40 for a single contract, stop 1235.90. Ordinarily I would suggest doing four contracts, and you can certainly do so if you know how to reduce theoretical entry risk to 0.50 or less per contract with a 'camouflage' entry set-up. But in this case the falling piano we would attempt to catch has been falling for so long that I can only recommend a single-contract bid against the trend. If the order fills and goes more than $4.50 in-the-black, check back here for updated guidance. Otherwise, take your loss with firm confidence that there will always be another opportunity. ______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 2:16 p.m.): The futures bottomed this morning at 1238.30, scant millimeters from my longstanding target. For explicit instructions, please refer to my posts in the chat room around 13:17. The gist of it is that if you did not buy on gold's first approach to the target, you should not do so now. _______ UPDATE (7:18 p.m.): The futures have rallied $7 from the 1238.30 low. I am not establishing a tracking position because  only one subscriber reported getting long with a bid placed just above the downside target. Whatever the case, anyone long from near the low has built enough cushion into the trade that it will be hard to lose.

Bitcoin tripped a 'buy' signal on Friday at 16,045 for a bull play to as high as 22,104 over the next 2-3 weeks. These prices are based on CME's Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which tracks the order books of numerous constituent exchanges. The chart shown, with the Tradestation symbol $BRTI, indicates minimum upside over the near-term (i.e., 2-4 days) to 18,065, the 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' of the ABC rally pattern.  Ordinarily we do not use 'raw' buy or sell signals such as the one noted above to initiate trades; rather, we convert them to proprietary 'mechanical' trades that rigorously control risk:reward in a 1:3 ratio. If you are interested in learning more about this or receiving Rick's Picks intraday trading alerts, consider subscribing to the daily online service via a free two-week trial subscription at www.rickackerman.com. ______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 8:44 p.m. EST): The 'mechanical' buy signal mentioned above triggered today on the pullback to 16042. Since the required stop-loss at 14021 implies entry risk of at least $2021, I'll suggest paper trading this one to get a feel for my tactics before you use real money to tango with this rabid weasel. It means to hurt. _______ UPDATE (Dec 15, 10:03 a.m.): The trade detailed above is developing nicely. Assuming, as we customarily do, an initial purchase of four round lots, I am now suggesting that you cash out half the position if and when p=18062 is hit. (Click here to see the chart. Please note that it uses ABC coordinates and Hidden Pivot levels that differ very slightly from the ones originally given. If you substituted another bitcoin trading vehicle, you should interpolate the exit points.)  Odds of a finishing stroke to the 22,101 target will shorten significantly if and when buyers waft this bag of gas decisively above

Bulls' failure this week to achieve the 1305.00 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (click on inset) is not exactly a sign of robust health. Actually, the good guys needed to have done somewhat better than that, surpassing the 1312.70 peak from October 16, to show their seriousness. Instead, they died well shy of it; and, to make matters worse, relapsed on Wednesday to a new weekly low. The technical damage would begin to look serious if sellers push the February contract beneath 1278.50, the point 'C' low of the 1305.00 rally pattern. We've learned by now -- all too well -- that gold's corrections are designed to bring bulls to the threshold of despair. By my lights, that would require a dip beneath mid-October's 1267.00 low. We'd be feeling bullion's pain by then, presumably just ahead of the next not-quite-satisfying rally. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 5:59 p.m.): Gold mildly tanked today as expected. Now, if the futures cannot hold support at p2=1272.70, the February contract will be bound for at least 1258.70. Click here to see it in a chart. You can bottom-fish there with as tight as stop-loss as you can abide.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 9:30 a.m.):  The so-far small breach of the 1258.70 target means gold is headed even lower -- presumably to 1237.40. Click here to see the chart. If you bottom-fished per my instruction, please report it in the chat room so that I can score the loss. _______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 5:30 p.m.): You can bottom-fish the 1237.40 target with a 1237.60 bid, stop 1236.50. I'm suggesting only a single contract for this trade, since we are after all attempting to catch a falling piano.

We've been using a Hidden Pivot resistance at 25113 as a bull-market target, but it's time to raise our sights to 27,251, the highest objective that can be calculated using the long-term chart. The pattern itself is like nothing I have ever seen before, with an extraordinarily long impulse leg that saw only one significant correction between 2009 and 2015. The fact that so powerful a rally could give way to a second (C-D) stage even steeper and with fewer corrections is strongly suggestive of a blow-off.  If that is what we are in fact witnessing, the 27251 target should put us in excellent shape to trade the implied, huge rally, but also to reverse polarity and get short at the exact top. As always, you should stay tuned to the chat room and/or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you want to stay closely apprised of trading opportunities that develop in real time. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 9:38 p.m.): Be alert to the possibility of a fall below 24,499. That would be the first hint of trouble on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 8:15 p.m.): Raise the hint-of-trouble threshold to 24682 -- not that such a concern is even remotely on the tiny endorphin-addled brains of those responsible for the current 24754. ______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 5:30 p.m.): The new "trouble" threshold is 24617.

[The fact that bitcoin has no intrinsic value should trouble anyone -- particularly gold bugs -- who advocates honest money. Can a currency that can be created out of thin air, even if requiring huge amounts of computer processing power to do so, be considered a trustworthy store of value?  When I raised this question in the Rick's Picks forum the other day, it elicited a spirited defense of bitcoin from a forum regular who posts using the handle 'BTDR'. His defense of cryptocurrencies (immediately below), even as their valuations continue to rise parabolically, is one of the best I've come across.  Realize first of all, says BTDR, that the existing money system is just a Ponzi scheme that has crippled price discovery and untethered nearly all classes of assets from economic reality. RA] "I now see BTC as the revolutionary technology that it is. Revolutionary not merely as novel, but as the perfect weapon to segregate and protect capital. It’s untouchable by derivative schemes and while it may be officially banned somewhere or everywhere, it’s demonstrating excesses not of nominal $ BTC price, but the insane $ inflation propping bonds, equities, real estate and irredeemable student, consumer and government debt. Those are the real bubbles; BTC is but the reflecting barometer now of those hyperinflationary excesses that was once gold’s prime function. "Just as an ounce of gold will remain so irrespective of FED policies, BTC is finite, yet divisible, un-hackable and global money independent of all central banks. Since liquid monetary wealth has no prospect of value preservation in the current diseased monetary milieu, BTC is good money driving out the bad. "The response from the government may come as a shock, and very soon, according to golden-boy carney barker Jim Rickards, who contends with due urgency that

The futures spent the week screwing the pooch, unable to muster the very modest rally it would have taken to 'guarantee' further progress toward 2680.50, our minimum upside projection for now. Did Friday's timid thrusts above the 2650 midpoint pivot change the odds? Only slightly, as far as I'm concerned. However, if and when buyers push the futures decisively above the red line, we should infer that a follow-through to 2680.50 is imminent. I will recommend shorting there with the usual tight stop-loss of perhaps a point or two only to those who have made a profit on the implied rally. The opportunity to do so could gestate on Monday via a 'mechanical' bid at the red line. The trade is recommended only to Pivoteers who know how to use this tactic, but if you don't and you are interested in the details, stay tuned to the chat room. (And please note that we'll be switching to the March contract this week.) ______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 6:19 p.m. EDT): Today's push above the red line surely qualifies as decisive (see above), implying that the 2680.50 target is all but a lock-up. Short there only if you've made money being long on the way up. If two or more subscribers report such in the chat room, I will consider establishing a tracking position.

VXX's relentless sell-off to historical new lows continued with last week's plunge, mirroring the equally sensational and extremely overbought condition of the bull market itself.  If VXX goes on to achieve the 26.32 downside target shown, it would imply that the S&Ps over that same time will continue their ascent with little or no hesitation, presumably to the 25113 rally target we've been using or even higher. We've refrained from trading this vehicle unless it is at or very near a major Hidden Pivot level. That means that if and when 26.32 is reached or very closely approached, we'll try to buy some near-the-money calls with a week or two left on them. In the meantime, we've spared ourselves money and anguish by not chasing the several upward spasms that have occurred over the last month. The thing to notice is that even if you had bought calls just hours before these volcanic eruptions occurred, booking a profit would have required quick reflexes, since each thrust gave way to a fleeting peak that lasted not days or even hours, but minutes. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 6:24 p.m. EDT): Volatility's historical collapse continues apace.  VXX could conceivably reach the longstanding target at 26.32 within the next 5-7 days. If this event were to coincide with Dow 25113, my current minimum objective, it would by the Rick's Picks equivalent of a Hindenburg Omen (or some such mysterious indicator). _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 9:45 p.m.): If VXX falls all the way to 26.32 today -- unlikely, in my estimation -- buy eight 29th December 29-strike calls. You should bid for the options only with VXX trading 26.36 or lower, day order. Pay no more than 0.39 for them, but check in the chat room for a possible adjustment if they won't come at

Although the Masters of the Universe have shown themselves to be adept at rotating money from one sector to the next in order to keep Wall Street's Ponzi scheme going...forever, they will need to commit huge new sums to the FAANG stocks to maintain the bull market's credibility. Shares of world-beaters such as Amazon, Apple, Google and Netflix have languished for weeks, putting a drag on the Dow Industrials that eventually will turn lethal to the aging bull if FAANG shares stop achieving new record highs with awe-inspiring regularity. My guess is that Facebook and GOOGL are about to lead the charge, since their ability to monetize eyeballs will always be reckoned by investors as an easier path to profits than selling actual things, as Amazon, Tesla and Microsoft must. In any case, hoisting some of the biggest-cap stocks in the world even an inch at a time will require larger and larger infusions of cash.  Succeeding at this game will become far more difficult if the Fed continues to tighten, even if they are just bluffing. If traders haven't factored this into their thinking yet, it is time they did so.

The bottle-rocket trajectory of bitcoin's rally has required me to put out increasingly ambitious Hidden Pivot targets several times each day. Currently I am using 18436 to project a top of some sort, although I hesitate to suggest it will be THE top. Actually, I'd be happy merely to see BTC pull back from that number for more than a few hours -- as long as it has taken for this vehicle to obliterate Hidden Pivot resistances that we might have expected to contain the jubilation for a few days if not longer. This evening, BTC has plummeted more than $3000 since peaking several hours ago at 17171, a new record. Most of those who have benefited from the cryptocurrency's breathtaking climb are not traders, just hoarders who may be starting to wonder whether it's time to get off.  But how? The best way for them to take profits would be to convert bitcoin to cash or to buy something 'real' with bitcoin. Something like physical gold -- about as real as investables get. At one point on Thursday afternoon, a single bitcoin could have purchased ten St. Gaudens $20 double eagles -- and then two more later in the day when bitcoin peaked at 17171.  Would you do that deal? Of course you would. Coin Dealers Not Leaping to Do the Trade So why isn't everyone swapping bitcoin for gold? Well, even if they wanted to, they'd have a tough time finding coin dealers eager to take the other side of the trade. If it were otherwise, the price of gold futures would be rising, not falling as it has for the last month.  Bitcoin hoarders can be forgiven for thinking they'll make much more money by staying in bitcoin than if they convert their digital lucre to bullion.