Rick Ackerman

Bitcoin is rampaging again tonight, presumably bound for at least 12714, a Hidden Pivot target we've been using for the last week or so to stay comfortably on the right side of a weaselly trend.  Rick's Picks established a tracking position Sunday evening with a long initiated at 10615 via a paper trade. The position survived a subsequent plunge to 9151, but it required as wide a stop-loss as we've ever advised.  Bitcoin futures are slated to start trading next week, so stay tuned to this page if you want to keep closely apprised of opportunities as they develop in real time.

Could AMZN, currently trading for around $1140, fall to $400 a share or lower?  You bet.  Not tomorrow, next week or even next month or year. But eventually. Investors should prepare for it, since Amazon Inc. seems destined to become a scapegoat for our collective miseries during the next economic downturn. For now, however, the company's increasing dominance in retail is widely regarded as a plus for the price of its shares. Why exit AMZN stock, the reasoning goes among its institutional sponsors, if we'll all eventually be buying nearly everything we need from Amazon and its vendor partners?  But try picturing Americans in the throes of recession-or-worse, unable to summon the old shop-till-you-drop zeal that has powered the incredible growth of online retail. At that point Amazon will be viewed less as a world-beating seller of all things than as a greedy monopolist using its dominance in retail to gouge customers and reap unconscionable profits. Try as they will to spin themselves as a tireless champion of the consumer, the Seattle-based giant might not have enough competitors by then for that narrative to seem credible. And that's when their troubles will start. The news media will feed us a steady stream of consumer horror stories that will turn otherwise docile shoppers into a lynch mob. Will the company ultimately be held responsible for providing life's necessities at 'reasonable' prices?  Quite possibly, yes. And that's why it's not farfetched to imagine a political movement seeking to regulate Amazon as we do companies that provide electricity and water. If Amazon can barely turn a profit now, imagine what a struggle it'll be to boost margins when they're flanked by Big Government and a pitchfork mob.

Today's chart shows a yen 'short' that triggered last week on the run-up to the green line (0.89989). The implication is that the December 2017 contract is about to fall to at least 0.86383.  A decisive breach of that number, a 'Hidden Pivot' support, would put a 0.79170 downside target in play over the long term. The corresponding numbers for the March 2018 contract are: 0.87520 (minimum downside, following a short at 0.90650); and a maximum 0.81260 if 0.87520 is decisively breached.  Alternatively, if the yen bear market begun in August 2016 is about to end, we should see a strong bounce precisely from 0.87520 (basis March); or from 0.86383 (basis December continuous weekly). _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 10:57 p.m. EST): Shifting to the March contract, the tracking position is showing a paper profit of about $1160 (see inset). Do nothing further for now, but maintain the stop-loss at 0.93600. _______ UPDATE (Jan 16, 11:00 p.m.): I've run out of patience and will recommend scratching the trade with the March futures currently trading for around 0.90680.

We've been using a 2690.25 rally target to stay on the right side of the trend, but take a gander at today's chart. It shows the very clear,  2665.00 Hidden Pivot target of a lesser uptrend that came within a single tick of nailing today's fleeting high. In fact, it stopped a bull-trap short-squeeze in the opening minutes of the session dead in its tracks.  I posted the chart in the chat room 18 minutes after the opening -- too late for it to be useful for trading purposes. However, given the vigor of the sell-off that ensued, we should treat the day's 2665.25 high as a potentially important top.  Alternatively, if bulls prove us wrong for the umpteenth time, look for a run-up to new highs on Tuesday or Wednesday, presumably a downpayment on a bigger rally to the 2690.25 target noted above. _____UPDATE (Dec 5, 5:25 p.m. EST): Well, that's two lovely down days in a row -- something of a rarity these days. Let's cheer on sellers Wednesday, giving them moral support as they attempt the hat trick. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 8:42 p.m.): Three down days in a row was probably asking too much, no? The futures ended the day unchanged but were slithering higher Wednesday evening. If they exceed p=2650.38 decisively, look for a run-up to 2680.50 (15m, A=2605.00 on Dec 1, 11:45 a.m.).

The spectacle of the stock market rising vertically in anticipation of alleged tax "reform" is a burlesque to behold, rich in greed, hubris and appalling misjudgment. The bill, like virtually everything else Congress churns out, is just another stinking heap of garbage, as anyone who follows the headlines will have concluded. As to its goal of simplifying the tax code, not one person in ten thousand could explain how it might conceivably improve our economic lives. It's not for no good reason that Congress's popularity rating is lower than that of Chris Christy, arguably the least popular politician in modern times; or that of a politically obsessed news media that has fallen under the sway of hacks, slackers and economic imbeciles. Nearly every day, we read about some new provision in the tax bill that will not only thwart economic growth, but also stand common sense on its head.  Today, for instance, the Wall Street Journal led with a story about how the Senate, in its infinite wisdom, has retained the dreaded alternative minimum tax for corporations.  It seems the greedy f**ks couldn't let an opportunity to nickel-and-dime us to death elude their slimy grasp. The effect will be to seriously undermine a research-and-development tax credit that the bill's understandably anonymous authors had showcased earlier on.  The change will also exceed, in the arrant stupidity category, a House provision to eliminate the tax deductibility of alimony -- a gratuitously anti-husband modification that almost no one, even women,  wants and which would raise a paltry $1 billion a year. Uber and Other Deflators And were you aware that even the tax bill's raison d'etre, a reduction in the corporate rate to 20% from 35%, was mildly in doubt because, it was feared, the change would not be revenue neutral? Regardless of

The way the Indoos blew past the 23,934 midpoint pivot (click on chart) this afternoon left little doubt about their ability to reach the 24625 target shown (which I disseminated intraday in the chat room), and soon. This Hidden Pivot resistance is sufficiently clear that we should expect it to show some stopping power. You can short there using near- or out-of-the-money DIA puts; however, as always you should keep the stop-loss as tight as 5-7 cents (in DIA), since this bull has a habit of trashing even the most daunting-looking obstacles. If the rally exceeds the target intraday by more than 25 points, or closes above it for two consecutive days, we'll shift our gaze upward to 25,113, the next big number in a sequence of important Hidden Pivot targets.  The sustained steepness of the move already qualifies it as a blow-off. However, even considering the 'awesomeness factor,' there are limits to how high Wall Street wack-os will be able to push things over the next several days.  Regardless, the targets proffered above can help us keep things in a sane -- and potentially tradable -- perspective. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 6:30 p.m.): Elsewhere on the page, I've drum-rolled AMZN and E-Mini S&Ps as timely bellwethers to help us gauge whether an important top is imminent. Odds of this would increase if the DJIA hits, then reverses from, the 24625 target noted above over the next several days.  ________ UPDATE (Dec 4, 5:51 p.m.): Close but no cigar. The Dow head-faked on the opening bar to a bull-trap high of 24,534. This will likely delay a move to the target, which lies 91 points above the high, but the target itself will remain viable even if the Indoos correct further over the next day or two as seems likely.

Ahhh, the suspense! Although I don't want to keep you all on a hair trigger, last week's top in the E-Mini S&Ps deserves our cautious attention, since it occurred very near the Hidden Pivot target of a rally pattern that had taken a full year to play out.  To keep my analysis as simple as possible, and to avoid errors in judgment, I'll be using just two vehicles -- the E-Mini S&Ps and AMZN -- to stay closely on top of any significant trend changes. Like the E-Mini S&Ps, AMZN peaked recently in a technically dangerous spot -- i.e., the 1211.66 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting to as high as 1304.96.  This is not likely just coincidence, and that's why price action in the two vehicles, taken together, warrants our unwavering diligence.

Based on evidence that comes from a composite chart, we've been using 2690.25 as a possible place for the bull market to end. However, referencing the December contract, the futures have already topped via a thrust last week to 2658.50 that roundly exceeded the 2645.00 target shown. Is the 13.50-point overshoot sufficient for us to presume that another bull leg is likely? Ordinarily I'd say yes, especially given the clarity of the bullish pattern and the fact that buyers stalled precisely and very discernibly at p=2480.50 before blasting though it. But just to be cautious, we'll keep an open mind to the possibility that the S&Ps have made an important top, if not necessarily THE top. If this proves to have been the case, we should start to see downtrending abcd patterns exceed their 'd' targets immediately and in all time frames. Alternatively, if the December contract is about to head higher, it will close above 2650.25 for the next day or two, then blast off for a minimum 2690.25. (daily chart, A= 2567.75 on 11/20). _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 9:47 p.m.): The bullish herd has gone loco tonight -- on a Sunday, no less -- pushing the futures to a so-far high at 2663.25. This negates the potential usefulness of everything I've written above save the 2690.25 target, which remains in play.

We've been using 12714 as a minimum upside target, but composite charts available at Kitco leave room for a move to as high as 14711 over the next 3-5 weeks.  Kitco's data also allow for a possible stall at 12391, so take heed if you trade this vehicle.  I will be making specific trading recommendations once I determine whose charts are the most accurate for purposes of forecasting swing highs and lows.  Here's a gambit you can paper-trade for now:  Bid 10615, stop 10011, and hold the position for a 12391 objective. My gut feeling is that we won't have definitive, tradable charts until the impending CME bitcoin futures contract has established a little price history. _______ UPDATE (5:46 p.m.): The order filled and went live as a 'paper-trade' about an hour ago.  Switch to a trailing stop of $350 if and when the rally hits p2=$11,498. ________UPDATE (9:41 p.m.): BTC has traded as high as 11560, activating the 350-point stop. To avoid getting popped out of a good trade too easily, and assuming you are still in it, I'll now recommend substituting a break-even stop at 10615 for the trailing stop. This is not a number pulled out of thin air, for in fact it lies just beneath the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the rally pattern projecting to 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 10:27 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 10717. [As of around 6:00 p.m., nothing had changed. Bitcoinmania has gone temporarily flat, but you should hold to the stop-loss and the 12714 target in any event.] _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:19 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 11362, still held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:40 p.m.): Bitcoin is on a tear tonight, having traded as high as $12,200.