Rick Ackerman

I've allowed a little more leeway than usual for this correction in the lunatic/FAANG stocks.  AMZN in particular was long overdue for a comeuppance. If this is it, we might expect the stock to fall a further 136 points, or 12%, to the green line shown in the chart. More likely is that it won't get anywhere near that price -- will in all probability turn sharply higher, as it always has, when the stock's canny sponsors throw the switch. If this is in fact the beginning of a more serious shakedown and the stock actually does fall to the green line, it would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal there that would be the most opportune we've seen in a long while. AMZN would still be ridiculously overpriced at 1025.05 -- but hey, who cares about the math?

The markets are acting sluggish Tuesday night -- a little creepy, considering the enormous tensions traders and investors must be feeling in these way-too-interesting times. Bitcoin is the exception, with rabid price gyrations that have spooked respectable commentators into a state of mild shock.  Yes, cryptocurrencies are in a speculative bubble. But merely because their value has increased fortyfold in a relatively short period of time is no justification for assuming the mania cannot continue for another six months or longer. Rick's Picks has been using a 10356 target for Bitcoin recently, but if this crystal-clear Hidden Pivot resistance gets blown away tonight or tomorrow, I'd infer that $20,000 is coming, and sooner than you might imagine. Incidentally, if you're a bitcoin fan who wants very precise targets rather than sensation-mongering, fear and loathing, you've come to the right place.

Today's wilding spree demolished two ostensibly important rally targets we were using for DJIA and DIA at, respectively, 23,665, and 236.59.  The implication is that bulls remain well nigh unstoppable. The rally produced a small trading loss of about $80 on some DIA puts purchased for 0.96 that were stopped out when they hit 0.75. The ease with which buyers exceeded the targets suggests they are well capable of achieving significantly higher levels. Accordingly, I'll suggest using the 245.06 target shown for now, although it won't be in play theoretically until such time as p=238.71 has been decisively exceeded. If the 245.06 Hidden Pivot is reached it would equate to a Dow rally of about 700 points from current levels. There may be an opportunity along the way to initiate long positions 'mechanically' with risk under very tight control, so stay tuned to the chat room and check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you want to be apprised in real time. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:45 p.m. EST): Let's try to leverage the 245.06 target by legging into a calendar spread at that strike. Start by bidding 0.35 for eight Dec 22 245 calls, but only with DIA trading 239.34 or higher. If you buy the calls, immediately offer a like number of December 8 245 calls short for 0.14, good-till-canceled.  You can also work this trade as a spread order by using a limit price of 0.21 (debit) for eight Dec 22 245 / Dec 8 245 call spreads, but again, only if DIA is trading 239.34 or higher. This order should be marked good through Thursday. The strategy is designed to produce a maximum profit with DIA rising to 245 over the next three weeks. The spread would be trading for around 0.60 then -- triple

With AMZN caught in a nasty short-squeeze Monday, the broad averages had difficulty selling off despite the fact that buying enthusiasm was almost nil. I recently adjusted my bull-market target for AMZN when the stock exceeded an 1181.56 Hidden Pivot objective that had kept us confidently on the right side of the trend for the last several weeks.  The target  lies about 9% above current levels, but we should still be very cautious right now, since Monday's high occurred almost precisely at a 1211 'secondary pivot'. When this occurs it puts a stock in jeopardy of succumbing to 'Matt's Curse', a very bearish price formation that in this case could portend a selloff to below 931. Although this seems most unlikely, we'll keep the yellow warning flag unfurled for another day or two just to be sure.

I'd proffered a 10563 rally target here earlier, but it was based on a chart that used sketchy data. This one, from Bittrex.com, yields a 10356 target that I expect to work more precisely. It also shifts the midpoint Hidden Pivot somewhat downward to 7892. The change is worth noting, since we could use a pullback to that number to get long with a mechanical bid and a 7070 stop-loss. I'll be curious myself to see how well Bittrex charts work for forecasting swing highs and low accurately and getting the trends right consistently in various time frames. Price information sufficient to accomplish this will be intrinsic to any charts based on the CME's impending bitcoin futures contract, which supposedly will start trading sometime in December. So far, however, the NYSE product bearing the symbol NYXBT has helped us nail some important highs and lows with very good accuracy, including the 29% swoon from a peak at 7521 achieved earlier this month. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:30 a.m. ET): The already vertical rally steepened overnight with a maniacal lunge to a so-far high at 11792. On the daily chart, only one clear target remains to be filled, via an ABC pattern as gnarly as any I've ever seen: 12714. [Note: The original number given, 12174, was a typo.] It is my minimum upside projection for now, but if it too is exceeded I may need a logarithmic chart to produce a new price objective. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:23 a.m.):  On the 30-minute chart, BTC has slipped below p=9459 associated with a 'd' correction target 8328.  There remains 668 points to fall, then, from a current 8994. (a=10976 on 11/29 at 11:30; b= 8714). An alternative target, calculated by sliding the 'a' high up to 11165 (11/19. 10:00 EST), is

An alert Pivoteer reminded me in the chat room that I'd put out a 23665 target for the Dow several weeks ago. I'd nearly forgotten about it because it was contained in a Morning Line rather than in a tout. The up-to-the-minute chart, with a so-far high today at 23638, is shown in the inset. The equivalent target for DIA lies at 236.59 (versus today's so-far high of 236.33). I expect both to get closer to their respective targets, so let's plan on getting short with some DIA 15 Dec 234 puts when the time comes. They should be trading for around 1.00 with DIA at or very near the target today or tomorrow. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:56 a.m. ET): With DIA opening higher this morning, numerous subscribers have reported getting filled on the DIA puts at prices between 0.91 and 0.99. This is a straight speculation, since we have effectively jumped squarely in the path of a speeding freight train. We'll risk about $100 theoretical and assume four puts bot for 0.96. Stop yourself out of them if they trade down to 0.70, good-till-canceled.

Today's chart introduces a 2690.25 target that looks to be a pretty good bet, even if it cannot quite be considered in-the-bag.  The breakout above the midpoint pivot at 2504 was incremental and lacking in drama, and that's why our bullish expectations should be throttled back somewhat.  Also, there was no strong confirmation of the pattern at p, since buyers did not so much interact with it as ignore it. Even so, and although this is a 'blended' composite chart representing many different contract months, I expect the target and HP levels x, p and p2 to work well enough to provide us with some decent 'mechanical' trade set-ups. The first would come on a pullback to the red line, an event that I would rate as unlikely. The implication is that we will need to look for our entry points on charts of smaller degree. Stay tuned to the chat room and check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you want to stay apprised in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 27, 9:23 p.m. ET): Use 2608.25 for a rally target today (60-min, A=2541.50 on 10/25). A breach of that Hidden Pivot by more than three ticks would put the 2633.75 target of an even larger pattern in play (A=2486.00 on 9/25; B=2577.25). ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:23 a.m.): The futures have sold off eight points after topping this morning at 2634.25, two ticks from the target provided above. If you shorted there, please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.  For now, if you did get short, take profits on half the position near 2626.25. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:12 p.m.): Only one subscriber reported getting short at my target, so I won't be tracking this one.

So Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is now worth $100 billion. Will he be the world's first trillionaire? Not likely, although he appears destined to become wealthier by perhaps a few more tens of billions in the weeks and months ahead. That is the implication of today's chart, which shows Amazon to have slightly exceeded an 1181.56 rally target we've been using for a while.  Ordinarily, such a small overshoot would not be significant. But in this case, the pattern that produced the 1181.56 target is so clear and compelling that we must assume that its breach, however slight, portends more upside to a Hidden Pivot resistance of still-larger degree. That means 1304.96, a target first broached here last week. It represents an almost 10% move from these levels-- sufficient to grow Bezos' bank account by enough superfluous wealth to purchase Lichtenstein, or 50 million accordions...or mineral rights to Mars. Even if he just sits on the money -- as what else can one man do with such a sum? -- it will elevate bull-market hubris to a threshold beyond imagining just a few short years ago. _______ UPDATE (Nov 27, 9:32 p.m.): Trading note: A pullback to 1118.36 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1056.16, for a shot at the 1304.96 target.______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:28 a.m.):  Interesting, to say the least. AMZN is arguably in a Matt's Curse plunge, down $62, or 5%, since peaking almost exactly at an important 'secondary Hidden Pivot'. This is exactly the price action Matt has observed, although he is still collecting data to determine how consistently "The Curse" works. _______ UPDATE (10:44 p.m.): Cancel the 'mechanical' bid at 1118.36 and replace it with a bid at x=1025.05, good-till-canceled. The stock is coming down so hard that I am wary of trying to

In the past, when I wrote disparagingly about Wall Street's eternally bullish drumbeat, I never envisioned banging away on the kettle drums myself at some point. And yet, with the latest updates (see below) for some key stock-market bellwethers, I have aligned Rick's Picks with some of the most shrill and obnoxious hubris coming from the likes of CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. This makes me uncomfortable, but the charts are saying what they are saying, and I've learned to trust them before my instincts. Regardless, I've still got one foot on the fire escape and so should you. The decibel level of cocksure bulls is at an extreme and investors are all-in, seemingly certain that a global economic boom lies just ahead. By my lights, even if this proves to be so, stocks are very richly priced .