Rick Ackerman

The 1254.10 downside target we've been using to stay steadfastly on the right side of the trend remains viable and should be used as a minimum downside projection for now. Unfortunately for bulls, when December Gold peaked last week at 1285.10, it just missed surpassing an 'external' peak on the daily chart recorded nine days earlier. This would have generated a mildly bullish impulse leg. Alas, it was not to be, and the clear implication is that downtrend will continue. Because of gold's recalcitrant behavior, we should also raise the bar somewhat for turning bullish -- to 1293.00, a tick above an external peak recorded Oct 20 on the way down. If the futures instead fall to the target, you can bottom-fish there with a bid at 1254.20, stop 1253.80. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 6:01 p.m.): A prior peak at 1286.20 is the lowest and most immediate benchmark I can suggest for determining whether bulls are serious. Click here for the chart to see this moderately important hurdle in perspective.

Significant corrections have become so rare that almost no one could expect one to begin as early as...this week? I surely don't. And that is troubling, since it implies that even those of us who have been pessimistic about the stock market more or less forever (and not without good reason) are ready to capitulate. More troubling still is that there is a growing list of ostensible reasons to get in gear with Wall Street, where the usual animal spirits have been whipped into a frenzy by mounting statistical evidence of an incipient boom in the U.S. and global economies. In some ways, it is arguable, the economic picture has never looked rosier. Even so, I must confess that I simply don't trust these seemingly halcyon days.  Investor behavior may not be quite as giddy as it gets, but it is surely close. "Close" in this context won't work as a timing indicator, but there is surely no harm in letting it temper our bullish enthusiasm just a little, lest we get caught wholly unprepared when the inevitable downturn comes.

I expect Bitcoin's manic rally, which has gathered force over the last month or so, to run out of steam shortly, since last week's bold leap brought the NYSE's Bitcoin Index (click on inset) to within an inch of some key Hidden Pivot resistances.  The chart shows two logical possibilities for the week ahead: 1) a top at 7353, slightly above last week's high; or 2) a somewhat higher top at 7562 based on a lower point 'A' for the trend pattern. Neither of the point 'A' lows that I've used is sufficiently clear or compelling to permit a highly confident call, but my gut feeling is that the targets are good enough to warrant our diligent attention. Fortunately, some new bitcoin trading vehicles are scheduled to be listed over the next several months, including one by the CME that should significantly boost liquidity in cryptocurrencies and enhance the accuracy of charts that show their price action. In the meantime, the NYXBY chart shown will have to do. I'll be interested myself to see how well my targets, based as they are on sketchy price action, work.  I see much higher price for Bitcoin ultimately, but the bull mania is overdue for a rest.

For now, the pattern shown offers the most clarity of any I am able to find for purposes of getting the trend and target right. It implies that there is at least a little more upside, to the 2587.63 midpoint pivot, before the futures face jeopardy.  If you are eager to get short, you can do so with a 2587.50 offer, stop 2588.25 Sunday night or Monday morning. I'd suggest the trade only in small size (i.e., a single  contract), and only if you feel like you need to have some skin in the game. If the futures smash through the resistance, expect the rally to continue to the 2633.75 target. Along the way, levels x and p can both be used to set up 'mechanical' entries on the long side. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 4:38 p.m.): The flying pig stuck its snout marginally above the 2587.63 resistance noted above. Although that's mildly bullish, a more decisive confirmation awaits. That will require a second-day close above the pivot or an intraday move to perhaps 2594.00 or higher. Although we shouldn't doubt it will happen, let's wait until it does before we start acting as though a run-up to 2633.75 is a done deal.

I have outstanding targets as high as 1083.69, but just to be perfectly clear, let's use the crystalline one at 1066.02 shown in the chart (click on inset) for the time being. The breakaway move on Oct 27 above the red line implies the target is very likely to be reached. Hidden Pivot level p can be used to set up a 'mechanical' buy with a 951.86 stop-loss. However, because that implies nearly $12,000 of initial risk on four round lots, I'd suggest instead using the 'mechanical' buy signal thereof to craft a 'camouflage' alternative that would entail total entry risk of perhaps $60 or less. If you want to learn more about this tactic, ask in the chat room if and when GOOG falls to the 980.41 midpoint pivot. ______ UPDATE (Nov 13, 6:20 p.m.): GOOG is entering its third week of pooch-screwing price action. If you're bored but inclined to take a shot if the right opportunity should surface, consider the two possibilities shown in this chart. A single round lot (100 shares) is all I'd suggest for this gambit. ________ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:53 p.m.): Cancel the trade, since GOOG has bounced precisely from p2=1014.01, setting up a possible 'Matt's Curse' run-up above C-1031.90.

Check out the two trades in AMZN if you want to see what a powerful entry tool the ‘counterintuitive’ trigger can be. The second trade triggered in real time while we were hunkering down on the 5-minute chart. Both opportunities looked mediocre, and yet they both paid off with respective moves from x to the midpoint pivot and beyond. Even lousy counterintuitive trades, it would seem, can be a source of consistent profits. The best thing about this tactic is that it is so simple to employ.

Since there's no particular reason we should trust a rally in gold, let's hold onto the bearish, 1254.10 target that has served to keep us on the right side of the trend in recent weeks. That said, Friday's brisk upthrust barely tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at the green line, 1275.20. That implies that our trading bias should be bullish at least until such time as p=1286.50 is reached. I'll recommend getting long either at will, via 'camouflage'; or 'mechanically' via a pullback to the green line after several 'lazy' bars have traced out above it. For now, unless you know how to execute a 'camouflage' entry, stay tuned to the chat room, watch and listen.______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 4:32 p.m.): Another failed rally. What a stretch! Zzzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 9:33 p.m.): Gold's extremely tiresome chop points most immediately to 1286.50 (click here for chart), a minor Hidden Pivot. We can ratchet up our enthusiasm a smidgen if and when buyers decisively exceed it. ______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 5:17 p.m.): Now that wasn't very nice. DaBoyz goosed gold to an intraday high at 1285.10 that fell 1.40 shy of the rally target I'd provided.  Ordinarily a small pullback from somewhere just shy of a target is not bearish, but in this case the pullback was sufficient to wipe out the day's considerable but fleeting gains. We'll repair to the sidelines for now, but with low expectations as the week draws to an end.

Ever upward! Thursday's nutty histrionics point to at least 2592.25, a Hidden Pivot that if exceeded would put another even higher target at 2606.25 in play. It is above 2584.25, however, where bears should consider diving for cover, since that's the midpoint resistance associated with 2606.25. If it were to be impaled like all other Hidden Pivot targets before it, you can take it as a sign that the rampage is about to continue.  Clearly, the stock market is not in the mood for thoughtful reflection these days, only in climbing a stairway to the sort of heaven that only a hardened cynic could fully imagine. It looks like a Heironymous Bosch painting to us, but we'll leave it to Mr Market to determine a fitting end to the Bull Market That Wouldn't Die.

It took the Indoos six days of chop to consolidate for yesterday's mellow breakout to a marginal new high, but the rally appeared nonetheless to be strong enough to end the week on an upswing. There couldn't be many bears left at this point, least of all those who have put their money where their mouths are.  I have no strong convictions about this myself, although the nearness of a compelling rally target on the longer-term charts still gets my rapt attention. There are a couple targets that I'm watching now, actually, and all you need do to join in the fun is to click here for a free, two-week trial subscription. Head for the chat room once you're signed up -- and be sure to say hello.