Rick Ackerman

The futures have caught a potentially tradable bounce Wednesday night off the 'counterintuitive' pattern shown. Night owls can use a print at 2569.06 [corrected from the 2596.06 number given here earlier] to trip a buy signal, but you'll be shooting for a ride only to p=2574.63, not the full-monte 'D', since tonight's weakness is somewhat unusual.  It follows an intraday high at 2585.50, just enough above the 2581.25 target I'd drum-rolled to be vexatious and gratuitously annoying from a forecasting standpoint. For now I'm treating the high as a potentially important one, but it will become chopped liver if this bounce exceeds 2578.50. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 7:29 a.m. EDT): The futures have popped to within a single tick of the 2574.63 price objective, so night owls should be out of at least half of the trade.  If you initiated the position on four contracts, you have a theoretical gain of $1000. If I hear from at least two subscribers who did the trade, I'll follow up with tracking guidance.

I've aired bull-market targets above Dow 26,000, although it feels to me like millennial craziness must surely be peaking right here, right now. Since nothing could be more pathetic than the permabear who comes to embrace a bull market just as it's peaking, however, here's a DJIA chart with a quite promising Hidden Pivot resistance not far above, at exactly 23642.  I'm not going to drum-roll this number because I don't want to jinx it, but it's one you should definitely keep in mind as the broad averages continue their epic blowout.

The bullish pattern shown is very unorthodox -- gnarly, as I like to say -- but it's all we've got right now to get an objective handle on the S&Ps wilding spree. For now, let's allow for the possibility that the 2581.25 Hidden Pivot target has very precisely caught the mythical and elusive Mother of All Tops. Enough said about that, since it's not the first time I've raised this possibility over the last eight-and-a-half years. We'll just have to wait and see. If the futures push decisively past it within the next couple of days, though, we'll need to haul out a very long-term chart of the S&P cash index, or perhaps a continuous futures chart, to see where it might be pointing.

AAPL chomped through a very long-term target at 168.46 on Tuesday, implying that the stock's spectacular rise is likely to continue, if not necessarily quite as steeply. This would hold bullish implications for the U.S. stock market, since AAPL by capitalization is the largest company in the world.   So far, buyers have overshot the target by just $1.19. However, considering the beauty and precision of the pattern that produced it, this Hidden Pivot should have stopped bulls in their tracks. Instead, they seem not to have noticed it.  Yes, it's possible AAPL will go no higher than today's record 169.65, and we should therefore be alert to the possibility of a sharp drop from these levels. But my bias remains bullish for now, acknowledging potential on the monthly chart to 181.11 most immediately, or even to 211.65 longer-term. ______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 6:06 p.m.):  AAPL spent the week in a stall that must have disconcerted bulls, given the height at which the stock has been doing its aerobatics. Its behavior would turn mild menacing for a rare change if the stock should fall beneath 171.72 by mid-week.

The chart puts in timely perspective the 1066.02 target we've been using to stay comfortably on the right side of GOOG's steepening bullish trajectory. The stock could pull all the way back to the green line without doing any technical damage to the intraday charts, but I doubt the correction will go that far. For now, we'll plan on using a 'mechanical' tripwire at the red line to initiate a long position. The implied stop-loss on a straight 'mechanical' bid there would be at 951.87, but it may be more advantageous to use an alternative entry strategy such as 'camouflage' if and when the time comes. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance in real time. ______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 9:20 p.m.): Odds of a pullback to the red line mentioned above are not encouraging, especially since GOOG tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal today at 1029.47 that has put a 1083.69 target nominally in play (click here for chart).. We'll let it pass, but if you're more ambitious, I'll suggest using the 15-minute chart to craft a 'camouflage' entry set-up.

Two tech support calls to different vendors have effectively wrecked my desktop PC, making it impossible for me to update my touts and commentary for Tuesday. One of those calls, a nearly three-hour marathon with Tradestation to  address a buggy Option Analysis Pro they sent out, has rendered Tradestation inoperable.  I will attempt to resolve these issues tomorrow.  For now, let me apologize for the lapse in service -- the first in the 22-year history of Rick's Picks/Black Box Forecasts.  Subscribers should check my chat room posts for analysis related to AAPL, which topped Monday within a hair of a potentially VERY important rally target.

Propelled by strong earnings announced after the close, GOOG ripped past the 1004.28 midpoint pivot shown, significantly shortening the odds of more upside to at least 1048.03, the pattern's 'D' target. We'll make that our minimum upside projection for now, implying the stock should be traded with a bullish bias until such time as it is reached. The pattern can be used in many ways to get long for at least a part of the ride north, but for now the 'easy' trade would employ a 'mechanical'  bid at 982.40 (the green line), stop 960.51, provided the stock pulls back that far._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 3:35 p.m.): GOOG's moon shot topped at 1048.39, ever-so-slightly higher than the target proffered above. The stock has since pulled back by nearly $27 to a correction low at 1021.19. It needs more rest, so we'll take one too. Here's a 'completed' chart that you can compare to the original one in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 6:04 p.m.): Once it is tan, rested and ready, expect GOOG to hit 1066.02 on the next leg up. This is a high-probability target that I expect to work almost as precisely as 1048.03 did on Friday. If the stock surprises by pushing easily past this number within a day or two of hitting it, factor in additional upside to exactly 1079.67. That is a very compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, as well as the last I am able to extrapolate from the daily chart. As such, it should be regarded as a back-up-the-truck number for getting short, presumably with a very tight stop-loss. Jot it down and set a screen alert there, for sure.

AMZN, the most important stock-market bellwether of them all, peaked Friday just 36 cents from an ostensibly important rally target I'd sent out to subscribers the night before. Much as I'd like to enthuse about the possibility that this will mark an important top in the broad averages, I've dispensed with the usual hubris to focus instead on still-higher targets for some widely followed trading vehicles, most particularly AAPL. There is also a rally target outstanding in DIA that can help keep us properly bullish for the time being. As backdrop, keep in mind that I've already projected a target above 26,000 for the Dow Industrials.  Eight-and-a-half years into a bull market, if you're going to follow some guru's giddy advice, wouldn't you rather it come from a die-hard bear than from a wild-eyed, glue-sniffing permabull who hasn't been around long enough to know that bear markets happen?

The dollar will have a chance to get airborne this week by breaking out of a consolidation begun a month ago.  If so, it would likely put more pressure on bullion, which has been weak recently to begin with. There are two price points shown in the chart that we can use to benchmark the rally: 94.11, the Hidden Pivot target of a minor bullish pattern that has been taking shape for nearly two weeks; and  the October high at 94.27 recorded a week earlier. If the Dollar Index is sitting above the lower number come Friday, you can safely infer it's on its way to at least 95.24 (60-min, A=91.78 on 9/22). ______ UPDATE (Oct 25, 8:20 p.m.): Buyers couldn't get past 94, where resistance appears heavy and sellers determined. Look for another charge from lower levels by week's end. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 10:21 p.m.): The Dollar Index is moving precisely as forecast.  It'll need to push past the 95.24 pivot, however, to demonstrate eagerness and ability sufficient to keep the rally going._______ UPDATE (Oct 29): Buyers stopped just a hair shy of the target on Friday.  I expect them to reach it this week, but let's see what happens rather than try to predict it. An easy move through the pivot would indicate still-higher prices in the days ahead.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 4:34 p.m.): Thursday's powerful leap brought DXY to within 9 cents of the 95.24 target, but bulls will have to exceed it decisively in order to maintain the strongly bullish look of the intraday chart.