Rick Ackerman

I once joked here that it would take an outbreak of nuclear war to slow down the buying that has impelled this bull market relentlessly higher since 2009. We now know that even a credible threat of a nuclear attack on U.S. soil is not sufficient to deter buyers for long.  Late in Wednesday's session, short-covering bears couldn't wait to get 'em back. Their panicky buying, even as Kim Il Un was threatening to nuke U.S. air bases in Guam, turned what had been a badly losing day for the S&Ps into a small winner. It also stopped subscribers out of a short position in the E-Mini S&Ps that had precisely caught Tuesday's top moments before war talk on the tape sent the S&Ps plummeting. Fortunately, I'd recommended tightening the stop-loss on the position in an update disseminated to subscribers early in Wednesday's session, allowing them to exit with solid gains. Going by-the-book, the theoretical profit on the four-contract trade would have been around $3500.  Not bad for two days' worth of desk work. A Dangerous Stalemate Will the short-covering panic continue? I have my doubts stocks can go much higher unless the conflict with North Korea is resolved peacefully, and soon.  But neither do I expect the broad averages to plunge anew unless the threat of war escalates. That can happen in two foreseeable ways: movement of troops into battle positions, or the launching of a nuclear warhead by North Korea. The U.S. seems unlikely to strike pre-emptively because that could provoke a retaliation  that would put millions of lives at risk in Seoul. Even so, Trump will have to respond to Kim forcefully because no leader, even those of China or Russia at their most menacing, has ever made such pointed threats before.  Iran is surely watching closely,

Index futures were continuing to sell off Tuesday night after having peaked intraday at levels where we'd anticipated a top of possible importance. Specifically, I'd flagged two rally targets that lay, respectively, at 2486.75 and 2489.50. Together, these Hidden Pivot resistance points stopped a strong rally in the first half of the session at 2488.50, then sent the futures into a dive that has reached 2461.50 so far this evening. Although Rick's Picks subscribers were able to take partial profits on short positions initiated at or very near the top, I would caution bears about celebrating prematurely. My concern is that the shares of two supremely important stock-market bellwethers, Amazon (see chart inset) and Boeing, were hanging tough Tuesday night after having barely sold off during the day. This divergence will not necessarily settle in bulls' favor, but it may take a day or two before we can predict confidently who will win. Regardless, from a Hidden Pivot perspective something important has changed in the way stocks are acting. Instead of hitting or slightly exceeding bullish targets and pulling back lazily for a short while, stocks are reaching their targets exactly and then getting smacked down hard.  The inescapable conclusion is that buyers are feeling less feisty these days -- for whatever reason.

The strong rally that began the day peaked a single point from the 2489.50 target I'd flagged here the night before, allowing subscribers to get short without much difficulty. Some reported having done so in the chat room, and I am therefore establishing a tracking position of four contracts as is my custom. The futures have since fallen 21 points to a so far low at 2467.50, producing a paper gain of as much as $1100 per contract. For now, take a partial profit on half of your position and plan on exiting a third contract (or an additional 25% of your position) at 2457.25.  If you bought just a single contract, use an impulsive stop-loss based on the 15-minute chart. At present that would imply exiting on a rally that exceeds 2481.00, but the threshold should be adjusted downward as new descending peaks are formed on further weakness.________ UPDATE (Aug 9, 10:41 a.m. EDT) Move the impulsive stop-loss down to 2473.50 if you hold a single contract.  If you hold two or more, continue to use 2457.25 to exit 25% more of the position, but tie half of your contracts to a 2473.50 stop-loss. Exiting on that stop would boost partial realized gains while leaving one contract for a swing at the fences. _______UPDATE (Aug 9, 7:05 p.m.): The stock rallied to 2474.25 in the final minutes of the day, triggering the stop-loss I'd advised. Subscribers reported profits of $2000 or more on the trade, but if you did it strictly by-the-book you'd have come away with a gain of about $3500. The nutty short-squeeze in effect at the bell looked capable of delivering 2490.50 (exactly), assuming it gets by p=2474.75 overnight (30-min, A=2461.75 on 7/27). _______UPDATE (Aug 10, 9:31 a.m.): The futures fell overnight and look ready to

Elsewhere on the home page, I've conceded that projecting lower lows for AMZN may turn out to have been wishful thinking.  The stock's 100-point plunge from a 1083.31 top that I'd predicted to-the-penny here seven weeks earlier had the potential to stop the bull market dead in its tracks. Alas, it's possible that permabears will get no more relief than they've gotten already from Amazon's weakness over the last ten days. Are you ready for more hand-over-fist buying in this stock and a handful of others that have been leading the charge? Regardless, they could be back shortly, having paused for just long enough to catch their breath.

Index futures were slithering higher late Sunday night -- usually an indication that DaBoyz are eager to unload inventory on unsuspecting grandmothers, widows and pensioners. This may be just a coincidence, but I've noted two Hidden Pivot resistance points not far above where the E-Mini S&Ps are trading at the moment. One of the two seems likely to show some stopping power, so you should check out the tout and chart if you trade index futures. Click here for a free two-week trial subscription that will not only allow you to access all of my touts, but to enter a 24/7 chat room that draws great traders from around the world.

We've been using a 2489.50 rally target derived from a minor ABC pattern that originated on July 18. However, the 2486.75 target shown has a much longer history -- one dating back to January of this year. It also has been confirmed by no fewer than four precise hits on the red line since May. Taken together, these two Hidden Pivot resistance points suggest there is considerable stopping power just above. This might seem unlikely, given that the futures have spent the last three weeks in a tight range that looks like a textbook consolidation for a move significantly higher. But could all of it be about to produce a rally of just 10 points? That's what the chart seems to say. You can short the lower number using a 'camouflage' trigger, but I wouldn't risk more than five ticks theoretical on the entry. If the trade goes in-the-black, please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

The 975.80 correction target shown is clear and compelling -- sufficiently so that we should continue to use it as a minimum downside target for the correction from July 27's record-high print at 1083.31. Plan on bottom-fishing the target if and when AMZN falls to 976.50 or lower. You can use weekly call options at the 1000 strike with at least 10 days left on them. Alternatively, a pop exceeding 1006.40 by mid-week would not negate the target, but it would put the short-term bearish case on ice. I will continue to monitor this stock closely because if we get it right, we will get the stock market right as well. In that regard, a bullish reversal in AMZN this week could be expected to add nitro fuel to the Dow Industrials' already impressive rally._______UPDATE (Aug 7, 4:29 p.m.): I never want to find myself in the position of hoping AMZN gets trashed, so let me acknowledge forthrightly that this hot-air balloon simply doesn't want to go down. The 975.80 target seems likely to get stranded at this point, although the stock seems in no hurry to leave bears choking on dust as it always has. _______UPDATE (Aug 9, 7:08 p.m.): The stock finally fell almost exactly to my target and has since bounced $7. If anyone got long based on my guidance, please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position._______UPDATE (Aug 10, 11:59 a.m.) With the stock breaking down on the opening, trading for around 976, I posted a 950.54 target in the chat room at 9:42 a.m. The target is still looking pretty good. Bottom-fish there aggressively if you've made money being short on the way down.

Oil producers, energy-sector lenders and their faithful cheerleaders in the news media got all lathered up the other day when crude futures briefly closed above $50 for the first time in more than two months.  The Wall Street Journal noted wishfully that this was the 'latest sign of renewed confidence in the oil market'.  In fact, it was merely the latest sign that those who pray each day for signs of inflation are growing increasingly desperate for solid evidence. In this case, anyone who can read a chart would have puzzled over their enthusiasm, since the big picture shows only a series of lower peaks and lower lows that are the hallmark of a bear market that in this case has persisted since January. A note to anyone in the news media who might be reading this:  Bull markets in energy are not caused by supply quotas or spun stories about falling inventories, as oil producers might hope, but by the robust expansion of global manufacturing. With all due respect for Boeing and a couple of other big players who have been enjoying strong business this year, nothing of the sort is occurring.  The supposed economic recovery in the U.S. is the most sluggish in history, and Europe's is even more tepid.  As for China, whose demand for oil effectively determines its global price at the margin, internal economic froth cannot mask the slowdown that has occurred in manufacturing. In such an environment, the hoped-for rise in the price of crude to $60 a barrel is most unlikely._______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 6:30 p.m.): However bearish we are on crude's long-term prospects, a pop above 52.38 would turn the weekly chart bullish. I have my doubts that buyers will be able to muscle this cinder block to that benchmark in the

We looked at some familiar charts during our hour together, including Gold, AMZN and VXX, but found only a potential ‘counterintuitive’ set-up in the E-Mini S&Ps to play with. It happened in real time, but I won’t spoil the suspense surrounding the outcome. If you want to cut to the chase, the action is toward the end of the recording – the last ten minutes or so, not including a five-minute Q&A period that concluded the session.