Rick Ackerman

A sharp rally on Friday pushed DIA to a 216.68 peak that exceeded the target we'd been using by six cents. You could have shorted there with a tight stop-loss, but I won't establish a tracking position unless I hear from at least two subscribers who used the pivot to open a position.  Profit-taking would have been in order on the ensuing pullback to 216.20. Regardless of whether you hold a position, you should keep in mind that a move above Friday's high would put an alternative target I'd given at 217.21 in play.  You can short there aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as a dime if you've been long for at least a portion of the ride up.

Friday's strong finishing stroke to a generally positive week created the first bullish impulse leg we've seen on the hourly chart in more than a month. Under the circumstances, caution is warranted if not necessarily skepticism. Trade with a bullish bias when activity resumes Sunday evening, but don't expect to get aboard the easy way, since the steep pitch of Friday's opening bar will have turned more than a few fence -straddlers into fickle fans. The rally would begin to look interesting if and when it exceeds the 1260.00 peak that I've labeled. Until then, however, the 1194.40 downside target we've been using as a minimum downside target will remain very much in play. _________ UPDATE (Jul 20, 12:06 a.m. ET): Thursday's rally generated a minor bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Now, if buyers can push this vehicle above June 28's 1255.70 peak by the close, bulls would have something to feel good about over the weekend._______ UPDATE (Jul 25, 6:15 p.m.): A minor correction on the hourly chart suggests a possible buying opportunity:  Bid 1246.00 for a single contract, stop 1245.40.  Click here for a visual explanation._______ UPDATE (Jul 26, 8:51 a.m.): Suh-prize suh-prize. Gold looks like crap yet again, having stopped out the bottom-fishing gambit advised above for a $60 loss. The overshoot of the downside target implies more weakness to come, presumably to test lows recorded a week ago near 1235.

We hold a long-term position of 200 shares with a 120.36 cost basis. TLT was in an uptrend all week but could only muster a single, feeble impulse leg on the hourly chart. The uptrend would need to surpass the 124.65 'external' peak that I've labeled in the chart (see inset) to suggest that bulls might be turning things around. The sooner this occurs -- by Tuesday's close, perhaps --the more encouraged we should be. Alternatively, if the ETF heads lower, expect it to fall to at least 122.03 in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 8:12 a.m. EDT): It is troubling that Tuesday's fleeting upthrust to a new recovery high failed by a few ticks to surpass June 26's 128.57 peak (click here for chart). This suggests that buyers may be nearing exhaustion, at least for the near term. Even so, we'll continue to use p2=129.08 as a minimum upside target, and 131.24 if the lower number is easily exceeded. ________ UPDATE (Sep 6, 6:36 p.m.): Today's thrust to a fleeting peak at 129.00 came close enough to the 129.08 target flagged above to consider the target fulfilled. It would have been a great place to do a covered-write against our stock position, but because I did not suggest this, we'll cross our fingers and look for a second chance at 131.24.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 6:08 p.m.): If and when TLT hits 131.10, short two Sep 29 131 calls and buy two Sep 29 128.00 puts.  To get the best possible prices, shoot for midway between the bid and offer. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 1:43 p.m. EDT): I've just posted a bottom-fishing trade in this vehicle to The Scoreboard. Here's the chart on which the recommendation is based: http://bit.ly/2wn1FDT   The order is good through Wednesday but subject

Friday's moderate surge speared an important 'midpoint' Hidden Pivot at 2457, putting a target at 2512 in play.  If the futures get there it would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 400 points that would leave the blue chip average trading just above 22,000.  I would regard 2512 as a lock-up if the the September contract can close above 2457 for three consecutive days, or hit 2469 intraday. A pullback to the green line would trip a 'mechanical' buy, but we'll wait for it to happen before we plot a less risky way to use the signal, since the by-the-book trade would entail nearly $1400 of theoretical entry risk. There are no easy, subtle hooks for a 'camouflage' entry at these heights, since the 'external' peaks we might use for that purpose are non-existent. To qualify as a full-fledged blowoff, the move to 2512 would have to occur by mid-week. That would make the target an even more enticing short, but we should try to get a piece of the rally before we drool over the prospect fading it.

The broad averages made scant progress on Thursday, perhaps because AMZN, the only stock that matters, was in what has so far been a mild correction. I have a bullish target outstanding in the stock that lies about 17 points above. Expect a bullish finale to the week if AMZN gets traction and heads toward the target at 1016. Once above it AMZN would be a good bet for a run-up to 1083.

We've been using an 1194.40 correction target for a while, but today's chart, a continuous daily, shows a bigger picture that is intended to ward off despair. First the bad news.  The red abc pattern projects to as low as 1100.60, a $116 drop from these levels. That is my worst-case scenario for the next 8-10 weeks, and the odds of this target being reached would shorten if the futures were to close below 1195 for three consecutive days.  The good news is that there is a much larger, bullish pattern that has so far prevented selloffs in 2017 from turning seriously ugly. The pattern projects to as high as 1452.60, but July Gold would need to rally decisively above 1288.30, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, to become an odds-on bet for a shot at that target.

I've flagged a bullish target in the E-Mini S&Ps at 2512.00 that might seem ambitious, but if you calculate it in Dow points it amounts to 'just' an approximately 560 point rally -- hardly a moonshot, the way this bull has been charging. However, if the target is reached in mere days, as well it might be, that could be the blowoff that so many of us have been looking for. For further details, check out the tout below.

The very bullish pattern shown yields a rally target at 2512.00 that would equate to a Dow move to around 22092.  I can't guarantee that the September E-Mini contract will get there, but after Tuesday's binge a run-up to at least 2457.25, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, looks like a very good bet. Permabear that I am, I prefer to think of a rally to the red line as potentially setting up a very nasty bull trap -- and bear trap as well. Bulls lifted to new record highs would relax, confident in a market that seems too strong to pose any immediate threat. For their part, bears would be panicking to cover shorts or face ruination. The intensity of their buying could easily push the futures well past 2457, presumably with enough force to reach 2512, where a trap would become even deadlier and more precipitous. At blowoff speed, I estimate it would take perhaps 4-7 days to reach the higher number, but only a day or two to reach the lower.  We'll be ready to short the latter on Thursday, but with a tight stop loss and a very open mind about what could happen next. The rally certainly seems unstoppable. Of course, at major tops the rally always does.

We found no timely trading opportunities during this session, but as usual, the effort spent was rewarded with yet more trading insights. Pay particular attention to the segment involving AMZN, since the stock presents formidable hurdles for anyone who would attempt to day-trade it with entry risk under tight control. Buy- or sell-stop entries are not usually available to us because the stock jumps around too much to allow them to work efficiently. Even so, there’s a workaround here that will be of interest to those of you who want to bag your daily dollar quota quickly and with just one trade.