Rick Ackerman

May Silver is correcting a rally to an 18.665 target that took ten weeks to reach, so we should expect the futures to take more than a few days to recoup their strength.  If not and they come bounding back to make new recovery highs this week or early next, that would bolster the odds that bulls are bound for the 22.644 target introduced here yesterday. In the meantime, we can use the pattern shown to project a 17.775 target for the retracement. If the futures instead were to turn higher without having gone below the 18.070 midpoint Hidden Pivot, and then rally to exceed 18.365, that would be extremely bullish.  I've sketched this hypothetically on the chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 10:47 p.m. ET):  Check my 00:28 post in the chat room for guidance on setting up a 'counterintuitive' trigger to get long. Ideally, it would come off a point 'C' low  in the range 17.750 - 17.765. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:56 p.m.): The correction continues with May Silver's engineered plunge tonight on news that LePen had failed to capture the French presidency on the first ballot.  The Republic has been saved, at least for the time being but don't think the clowns who have pulled the rug out from under bullion know any more than we do. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:01 a.m.): Silver's recovery today was stronger than gold's, ending the day with the creation of a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Overnight weakness could conceivably set up a 'counterintuitive' buying opportunity using any of three prior lows as point 'A', but the one shown in this chart is the only one I'm recommending for the job.

The bond markets have bought so heavily into the Fed's phony-baloney cover story about inflation being right around the corner that the unwind of this nutty idea was bound to be a doozey. Today's sharp rally in bonds may in fact have put the reflation trade on ice. At the very least, it put long-term Treasurys on track for a very significant move higher -- to at least 130.81 for TLT, an ETF currently trading for around 124.70 that tracks the long bond. We'll have quite a bit more to say about this in the days and weeks ahead, but as far as we're concerned, sanity appears to be making a comeback in fixed-income markets.

Today's ballistic move left our stingy bid choking on dust. It also tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal for the very major bullish pattern shown. With the steep rally of the last two weeks, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 130.61 has become an even-odds bet as a minimum upside projection. We'll be following the move closely, looking for low-risk entry opportunities, since there's a lot of room to the upside before this vehicle hits anything solid. For now, however, we won't chase it, since a pullback when it comes is likely to be punitive. I've flagged the rally in today's 'Morning Line' as signaling a possible end to the reflation trade. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:12 pa.m. ET): Look for the correction to continue to at least 122.27, or to 121.38 if any lower (60-min, a=124.24 om 4/21).  UPDATE (Apr 25, 7:44 p.m.): Today's selloff bottomed precisely at the 121.38 target I'd flagged above, allowing at least one creative subscriber to get long at the intraday low for a so-far modest profit. Now let's see if TLT can get legs spring-boarding off this minor Hidden Pivot support. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 8:13 p.m.): TLT has now rallied 76 cents from the targeted low. Any subscriber who got aboard for the ride by bottom-fishing near 121.38 should let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position if one is warranted._______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 1:45 p.m.): Three subscribers have reported TLT positions acquired using the 121.38 correction target provided above. This Hidden Pivot support caught the recent low to the exact penny. As is customary when subscribers hold actual positions based on an actionable tout, I'm establishing a tracking position: 400 shares with a cost basis of 1.30. For now, I'll recommend exiting half of the

A 2304.25 downside target remains valid in theory, but sellers have been looking so timid lately that we'll go instead with the minor uptrend at the rightmost edge of the chart (see inset) for Wednesday. It projects to 2353.25, a very modest target that may still be out of reach if DaBoyz don't get help from short-covering bears. My gut feeling is that with mortgage applications data scheduled for release ahead of the opening bell, bears may not feel like doing any heavy lifting for the bad guys. And if the mortgage data is surprisingly downbeat, as why should it not be with rates significantly off their lows and home prices in the stratosphere, then you can return your focus to the 2304.25 target.  Please note as well that any selloff would have a chance to bounce from 2314.00, an additional HP support derived from an alternative A at 2378.75 on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 8:04 p.m. ET): After enduring today's Punch-and-Judy show, I see little tradable value in pretending I give a rat's ass where this thing is going next. Even if I'm right and it falls to 2304.25, that's hardly a guarantee we'll be able to make 'easy' money on the move.

Comex silver and gold futures simultaneously reached two important Hidden Pivot targets on Monday that had kept us confidently on the right side of the trend since mid-March. The former, basis the May contract, came within a penny of an 18.665 target before dropping back sharply -- by 30 cents so far. As for June Gold, it topped to the exact penny at a major Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 1297.40 that I'd emphasized the night before, including in a chart that showed it as a potentially tough hurdle. The futures subsequently fell to a so-far low at 1283.10 that lay $14.30 beneath the target. We don't have a crystal ball to tell us how things will play out over the next week or two, but if the corrections in gold and silver prove to be short -- meaning 3-5 days -- and gold and silver subsequently blow past today's highs, that would put them in good position to reach targets significantly above these levels. For precise numbers, check out my latest 'touts' for gold and silver, below. If you don't subscribe but would like a peek, click here for a free  two week trial subscription to Rick's Picks, including access to a 24/7 chat room that draws great traders 'round-the-clock from around the world.

May Silver peaked on Monday a penny shy of an 18.665 Hidden Pivot rally target that kept us steadfastly on the right side of the trend for the last several weeks. Trading aggressively, one subscriber reported using the target to get short just off the high. Although the trade could have been worth as much as $1500 per contract by day's end, I have not established a tracking position because no other subscriber reported using the target in similar fashion. In any event, the futures are due for a breather, since it took them fully ten weeks to reach the target. Because the move has exhausted the minor trend, we must now consider an ABC rally pattern of larger degree to produce a fresh rally target. The one shown projects to as high as 22.644, a target that corresponds to one at 1464.90 that I just published for June Gold. Before we get excited about the prospect, however, we'll need to see the futures take out the 19.200 midpoint Hidden Pivot (shown as a red line in the chart).  The more quickly and easily this happens, the greater the odds of 22.644 being reached. Meanwhile, SIK17 is on a 'mechanical' buy signal from 17.477 that was tripped on March 8. The least risky way I can suggest to get aboard belatedly would be to use the rightmost six bars to fashion a 'camouflage' entry trigger.  For a graphic picture of this, check out the chart accompanying the current (i.e., April 17) tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it shows a very similar set-up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 7:32 p.m. ET): The 'camouflage' tactic suggested above was a non-starter because Silver broke sharply lower overnight. The next conceivable low-risk entry etnry opportunity could set up 'counterintuitively'. Click here for a hypothetical

We'll continue to shadow VXX, waiting for the perfect opportunity, since there's a juicy payoff in this vehicle if you get the timing right. We did that the last time out, buying call options pennies from their low before they doubled later that day, then quadrupled a few days later.  The trick is to line up a lowball bid in options that coincides with a targeted top or bottom in VXX. The options themselves are targetable, and the fact that they rarely overshoot a target by much makes the bet a relatively low-risk one. The more difficult trick is making a timely exit, since price spikes are fleeting, often narrowing the profit-taking window to minutes or less.  This was the case when we cashed out the calls mentioned above. Fortunately, we were able to offer them ahead of the move by using a rally target for VXX that nailed the intraday high. Looking just ahead, we'll let VXX cool off a little more before we look for an entry spot. If you're keen on participating, stay tuned to the chat room -- and be sure to check 'Email Notifications' on your account page to receive timely alerts. ______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:19 a.m. ET): Patience may pay off yet again, but it has already prevented us from chasing one of VXX's notorious fake-out rallies. We buy only on weakness, and it looks like our next opportunity could be near. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 0.20 for eight May 5th 15  calls, day order. Take 0.05 discretion, meaning you can pay up to 0.25 for them if they look absolutely un-buyable for .020 with VXX trading within a few ticks of our 14.67 target (click here for chart). This is a jackpot bet of sorts, with a bid a couple of pennies

Monday's constipated short-squeeze ended with the futures hovering just above last Thursday's peak. Thus did a tiresome rally generate a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts, although not on the daily.  Under the circumstances, my outlook and trading bias for the very near-term will necessarily be bullish, but with a cautious eye toward the 2304.00 downside target identified in yesterday's tout. It will remain in play until such time as 2375.00 has been exceeded to the upside. Night owls may be able to catch a possible next leg up using the 'camouflage' pattern shown to reduce the risk. If the eventual point 'C' low falls within a few ticks of A=2342.00, you should jump on the trade 'counterintuitive'-style.

Index futures have opened slightly lower Sunday evening while bullion futures are trading moderately higher. My respective touts for each suggest both trends are likely to continue into the new week. Gold in particular looks ripe for a short-squeeze, with plenty of room to the upside if buyers should decide to launch it toward the current, very bullish Hidden Pivot target contained in my latest tout.