Rick Ackerman

I've slightly raised my target to 3.24%, but I still expect the pattern shown to capture the main features of this bull move in tradeable fashion. That implies p2=2.85% can be used not only as a minimum upside projection, but also as a place to scalp short against the trend.  However, the way last week's blitz shredded the p2 resistance leaves little doubt that rates on the Ten-Year will hit 3.24% before they have a chance to level off.

Did you get Mr. Market's little joke last week?  Although angst over the Fed's plan to tighten until the cows come home stirred up a shitstorm of commentary and fearful headlines, the stock market acted like it was reliving a quiet week in 1955 under Eisenhower. For those who bet on volatility, it was like watching the croupier rake in all the red/green bets when zero has come up on a roulette wheel.  The 4146.75 target shown remains my worst-case for now, and the pattern still looks serviceable for getting short on the way down.  Don't pass up an opportunity to bottom-fish at p=4388.88 in the usual way. Nudge me in the chat room and I may be able to help. I haven't mentioned a scenario in which the futures rally to stop out C=4631 because the buying enthusiasm to get them there just doesn't seem to be present at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:35 p.m.): The 4388 Hidden Pivot noted above nicely nailed the low of a 39-point rally that could have been worth as much as $16,000 to anyone who jumped on the opportunity as I'd advised. Alas, the trade triggered in the dead of night, as so many great opportunities do, so not many would have caught the move. The subsequent relapse to a new intraday low identified the rally as a distribution. It also reaffirmed that when a trade goes our way, we don't want to be caught patting ourselves on the back as Mr. Market turns on us with a buzz saw. Here's a chart that shows the stupid, gratuitous hump created by the day's price action. Considering how bulls got sandbagged, look for more weakness on Wednesday.

AAPL is still an enticing 'mechanical' buy on a drop to x=158.97, although there are no guarantees that the sleazeballs who control the stock are planning to let it fall that far. A bid at p=167.83 would be riskier, but we may attempt it anyway -- using a 'camouflage' set-up, of course. That would entail dropping down to the 5-minute chart or less to create an entry trigger on an ABCD pattern of small degree, but we'll leave the details for when the stock closely approaches the red line. The 'D' rally target at 185.56 will nonetheless remain viable in any foreseeable case. _____ UPDATE (Apr 12, 12:19 p.m.): Sellers have pulped the midpoint support so badly that there was no blip to trigger us 'long'. The downtrend looks ferocious enough to achieve x=158.97, setting up the 'mechanical' buy noted above. Stay tuned to the chat room and 'Notifications'  for details. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:39 p.m.): The downtrend turned to mush, but I doubt there are enough buyers to ignite a rally with staying power.

The 116.06 downside target seemed farfetched when it first came into play theoretically back in January. However, with Friday's plunge through p2=125.83, it has become no worse than an even-odds bet to be achieved. The pattern looks a little too obvious to yield up a bottom-fishing gem for us. Indeed, as a practical matter I'll be look for the Big Turn to occur in the discomfort-zone void between p2 and D=116.06. For now, however, unless you've been trading this vehicle all the way down, I'd suggest continuing to gape in awe.

The bull trend begun in February has gone comatose along with the stock market. The timing of the breakout is unpredictable, but look for the futures to ascend quickly to p=1993.20 when it happens. The futures could continue to swing gratuitously $40 either way in the meantime, but any trading opportunities thereof would need to come from the lesser intraday charts.

The pattern shown is so wickedly gnarly that I'm surprised last week's low did not occur within pennies of the 93.07 target. I would be logical to infer that a bottom is in and that the futures are telegraphing strength in the week ahead, and so we shall. But I will also suggest keeping an open mind to the possibility of a relapse to the target, since that would enable us to bottom-fish with risk under very tight control. ______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:04 a.m.): Now that's more like it.  The futures did in fact relapse to a 92.93 low just a millimeter below my target. This allowed traders to get long in numerous ways that could have been worth anywhere from around $600 to $2000 so far. This chart shows how you could have set up a conventional 'camouflage' trigger at the green line, x=93.73. ______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 10:50 p.m.): Just a smidgen to go before we can gauge the fledging uptrend's strength as it interacts with p=105.03. As always, an easy penetration would portend more upside to D=117.01. Here's the chart.

I seldom rate 'mechanical' trades '8.0' or higher, but the one shown in the chart is right up there.  It is so juicy, actually, that we should probably assume Bertie's taskmasters are not planning to gift us with such a bargain-basement opportunity. Interest in this vehicle has been almost nil, so I'll leave it to you guys to figure out the optimal coordinates to use for getting long somewhere above x=40,023 with a tight 'reverse' pattern.  Unless this vehicle shocks by plunging below C=32,977, the somewhat-big-picture rally target will remain 61,163. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 6:10 p.m. EDT): A vicious but wholly gratuitous $7,000 plunge has triggered the 'mechanical' buy in Bertie noted above. Keep in mind that the green line (i.e., x=40.023) is NOT a support, nor even necessarily a place to get long. That is best accomplished using camouflage. Here's a pattern you can use for that purpose.  You'll have the wind at your back with any entry method employed near D=39,166 of the pattern shown, but ask me first if you are too scared to pull the trigger.  That is the way you're supposed to feel when good mechanical opportunities arise. _____ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:45 p.m.): The rally and the opportunity have come and gone, leaving a $7000 hump on the hourly chart to discourage both bulls and bears with a demonstration of how silliness often rules the markets.

[Counting on the Fed to ride to the rescue when the bubble finally pops?  You had better have a Plan B, and for good measure a Plan C, since America could be in for something far worse than mere recession when the asset boom ends.  In the commentary below, my friend Charles Hugh-Smith spells out the reasons this is likely with greater clarity and concision than I have. I am grateful for his permission to reprint the essay, an installment of the 'Musings' emails that go out to subscribers every Saturday. Discover his extraordinary blog, books and deeply original reflections at OfTwoMinds.com by clicking here.   RA ] **** By Charles Hugh Smith The saying "demographics is destiny" encapsulates the reality than demographics--rising or falling trends of births and deaths--boost or constrain economies and societies regardless of other conditions. Demographics are long-term trends, but the trends can change relatively rapidly, with momentous future consequences. As this article below mentions, extrapolating the high birth rates and falling death rates of the 1960s led to predictions of global famine. As death rates declined and women's educational and economics prospects brightened, birth rates fell, a trend that now encompasses most of the world. As a result of the Green Revolution (hybrid seeds and hydrocarbon-based fertilizers), the Earth supports more than twice as many humans as were alive in the 1960s (3.5 billion then, 7.9 billion now). Now the problem is a shrinking working-age population that will be unable to support the financial and healthcare promises made to the retired generations. Birth rates in developed nations have fallen below replacement rates, which means populations are shrinking and populations are aging rapidly, i.e. the average age of the populace is rising.. One side effect discussed in this article is the decline of the cohort of young

Ordinarily I would infer weakness from the futures' failure last week to reach the 4645.25 rally target drum-rolled here earlier. In this case, however, I'm inclined to think that enough traders and algos are starting to catch on to 'our' reverse patterns that instances as obvious as this one are going to get front-run. Even more compelling for the bullish case is that in this vehicle and our bellwether of bellwethers, AAPL, the selloff has followed an upthrust that exceeded an important prior peak, generating a robust impulse leg on their respective daily charts. We can test this bullish theory as the new week begins using this pattern, a corrective abc that in theory should yield a decent 'mechanical' short at x=4534. If bulls are still in charge, look for it to get stopped out within a day or two. _____ UPDATE (Apr 4, 10:01 p.m.): It took only a few hours for the unrecommended trade to get stopped out, so bulls are still in charge.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:04 p.m.): Bulls turned comatose, activating this minor, bearish pattern,  An overshoot of D=4475.75 would imply sellers are not yet done. Also, a rally straightaway to x=4560.50 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, subject to the usual 'camo' risk controls. ______ UPDATE (Apr 6, 11:25 p.m.): The futures fell to the 4475 target overnight, then spent the entire day diddling it as though nothing were happening in the news.  In the end there was no bounce, however, so bears will have the edge when Thursday's session begins. The pattern shown in this chart should be helpful in nailing the swings on the way down to as low as D=4146.75.  And yes, p=4388.88 can be bottom-fished with the tightest 'camo' set-up you can construct. If it gets pulped, expect selling to gain momentum.