Rick Ackerman

I've been shouting about this for many years, but let me repeat it once again: The last thing the world needs is a strong dollar, since it will lead inexorably toward ruinous deflation.  Over several decades, I've never wavered in my hyper-bullish outlook for the dollar, even amidst current headlines screaming about inflation, and regardless of what most economists were  saying.  That's because I see no resolution for the global debt bubble other than via massive liquidations that would be tantamount to deflation. A stock market bear will be the catalyst, assuming some 'black-swan' asteroid does not hit us first. From a technical standpoint, the dollar index is rallying sharply after the briefest of corrections. That is quite bullish, but even moreso because the recent 99.42 peak whence the correction began had hugely overshot its Hidden Pivot rally target. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7, 12:09 p.m.): This chart, too, should have been included earlier, since it shows a can't-miss minimum rally target at 103.25. It is predicated on an easy move past p2=99.74, but I doubt that will be a problem. ______ UPDATE Apr 13, 11:012 p.m.): Here's a pattern I somehow overlooked that shows why DXY topped exactly where it did. The weakness presumably is corrective, since we have the outstanding target at 103.25 noted above..

I hate to be the bearer of good news, but the futures were actually a 'mechanical' buy when Friday's death spiral splattered on the green line in the closing minutes of the session. You are forgiven if you had no appetite for the trade, since neither you nor anyone else could have expected the weekend to bring a bullish resolution to Putin's potentially world-ending dilemma. Don't feel bad about missing this opportunity, however; it rates only a '6.8', since the A-B impulse leg was not exactly a killer wave of insatiable buying. The implication is that the futures will rally to p=4296.63 before taking out the pattern's 'C' low at 4138.75.  Bet on it Sunday night if you wish, but I'd prefer to watch before hazarding a guess as to what the rest of the week will bring. Whatever happens, ALL rallies for the foreseeable future should be regarded as juicy short sales.  If you want to see how this can be done without incurring too much risk, stay closely tuned to the chat room. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:21 a.m.): DaBoyz failed miserably at exhausting sellers over the weekend because none showed up. This means that the obligatory stage-managed, distributive, short-squeeze rally on the opening will be very subdued and brief if it happens at all. For that reason I'll suggest scratching the trade now. Please let me know in the chat room if you took the trade, since it triggered on Friday's closing bar and was showing a paper gain of more than $7,000 on four contracts at 6:00 a.m. this morning. The futures have traded up to within a tick of the green line when this update was posted, and gave since traded as high as 4224.25.  _______UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:06 p.m.): This pattern has worked well

The institutional chimps who are paid to rig this vehicle's ups and downs have become so obvious about it that they've opened themselves up to abuse and insult by pishers like us. On Friday, we guessed correctly that they would open the stock with a poorly supported feint toward 160.  They did, enabling many Rick's Picks subscribers to buy expiring 157.50 puts on the opening for 0.50 that sextupled to 2.97 by the close. Two days earlier, the supposedly all-knowing, all-seeing 'They' pushed distribution shenanigans to the limit with a closing-bell stab at the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' short that would have produced a gain of as much as $9 a share for alert disciples of the Hidden Pivot Method. The stock now appears bound for a minimum 147.57, the 'D' target of the pattern shown, but be alert as always to a possible bounce from the 'secondary' pivot, p2=152.91. That's where we can expect many killer bear-rallies to start in the weeks, months and years ahead. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:42 p.m.): The bounce from no man's land between p2 and D is now impulsive on the hourly chart, so any trades over the next day or two should go with the flow.  If this team effort makes it to the green line (x=163.58), which I suspect it will, that would trigger a 'mechanical' short similar to one that has worked for us very consistently in the past.  However, if we attempt it, it will be with a risk-controlled entry, camouflage-style, on the lesser charts. Alternatively, if the stock surprises on Wednesday by diving, I would strongly recommend bottom-fishing at 147.57.

Gold's feisty comeback on Friday went only far enough to trigger a moderately appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=1991.70). We took a pass nonetheless, since no one wants to go home short gold with war and all-out conflagration threatening Europe. The 1921.60 downside target can still be used, but it would not be unusual for a vehicle that's in a bull market like this one to correct no lower than the secondary pivot, p2 -- in this case 1945.00. Alternatively, a move straightaway through C=2015.10 would be hell-of-bullish. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 1:20 p.m.) Sellers have dismembered the 'hidden' support at p2=1945.00 in order to concentrate on Part II of their plan for tonight: gang rape. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:09 a.m.): The 1921.60 target has caught the exact low to-the-tick of last night's avalanche. Sellers have been mau-mauing the Hidden Pivot this morning, but any bottom-fishing done there so far, regardless of the tactic used, would have made money. If you did a trade using my number and still hold a position, please let me know so that I can determine whether to provide tracking guidance.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:20 a.m.): The Hidden Pivot has finally given way under brutal pounding. Structural support lies near 1890, within a head-and-shoulders pattern that has traced out over the last three weeks. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:45 p.m.): The April contract is still groping for a foothold at the 1921.60 correction target, although the breach of this Hidden Pivot support is not exactly a sign of good health. We'll move to the sidelines for now.

Use the arrestingly bullish pattern shown with high confidence in the weeks ahead, since it will allow you to do whatever you please with Silver, whether trading it or smugly anticipating its next move. It cannot miss because 1) it is so beautiful, featuring a spectacularly precise pullback from p=25.58, and 2) we are the only traders in the galaxy who know how to leverage it. The next possible 'buy' worth looking at would be a 'mechanical' at p=25.58, stop 24.19. Tune to the chat room, as always, for risk-mitigating details in real time. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:12 p.m.): The big picture pattern (inset), with vast spaces between levels, is intended only for subscribers familiar with Hidden Pivot tactics for greatly reducing risk.  In this case, it amounts to about $28,000 on four contracts.  A smaller, downtrending pattern, where a=27.39 on 3/9, suggest the low of this selloff will occur at or near 24.63. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:35 a.m.) As expected, the futures have taken a tradeable bounce from the 24.63 correction target drum-rolled above. The reversal occurred from within three cents of the Hidden Pivot, enabling at least one chat-room regular to report a profit on a partial exit. Whether the support will hold cannot be predicted at present, but if it gives way easily, that would be bearish, considering its compelling clarity. Here's a chart that shows the bounce so far.

The corrective pattern shown may be too obvious to provide precise hooks for low-risk shorting and/or bottom-fishing, but it is not apt to fail us predictively. To that end, we should continue to monitor price action at p=135.59 closely. So far, the stall at this Hidden Pivot support would seem to suggest that bulls still hold an edge. However, a reversal to the downside, if steep enough, could signal a further retracement to as low as the 'd' target at 116.06.  For now, and strictly speaking, a rally to the green line (x=145.36) would generate an appealing 'mechanical' short. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:30 p.m.): Sellers overwhelmed the midpoint support at 135.59, implying they will bludgeon this vehicle down to at least p2=125.83. 

Bertie's soporific action points toward D=47,181 within a pattern that has already generated a nice, $3,000+ 'mechanical' winner. It came via a buy at the green line (x=37,554) a week ago, but it is not likely to be so easy if there is a second opportunity. Interim ups and downs will always be tradeable, but I have somewhat reduced chat-room guidance for this vehicle because subscriber interest in trading bitcoin appears to have dropped off. Nevertheless, if you nudge me with an idea you'd like vetted, I'll be happy to help. _______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:43 p.m.): Bertie took forever to achieve my 47,181 objective, but today's decisive overshoot has activated a bigger, 'reverse pattern' with a new target at 62,317.  Let's see how much resistance p=47,647 poses to short-covering, the main source of buying power in this vehicle. Since few know about the pattern, and even fewer how to use it, you can rely on it whatever your purpose. I'll signal if the big-picture 'mechanical' buy triggers at 40,312, since, although it would be a no-brainer, the more than $7,000 of theoretical initial risk would require a 'camo' entry strategy.

Considering the size of the crude-oil market and its geopolitical importance, the rally begun two years from $6.50/bbl amidst fears of a Covid-caused Depression ranks as one of the most spectacular and consequential in history. Consumers are coping at the moment with speculative excesses brought on by the curtailment of Russian petrofuels, and by disruptions, real or feared, in the global distribution network for energy. Pump prices have doubled since the pandemic began, piling crushing weight on a U.S. economy that was already close to buckling from steep increases in the cost of nearly everything. How much higher can prices go? The headlines suggest there is no relief in sight. But an end to the cost spiral is surely coming, since the parabolic rallies in many commodities, particularly oil, grains and metals, are too steep to sustain. When the wilding spree ends and prices fall as precipitously as they have risen, the result will be a deflationary bust that will send the global economy into deepest recession or even Depression.  Oil cannot but lead the way down, since its collapse will be exacerbated by the vast swath of the energy patch that has been hocked to financiers in order to propagate growth in derivatives markets that are much larger, even, than the oil sector.  I referred to this effect as a 'double whammy' in my last commentary, which was titled Inflation's Last Fling. Here's the Trade... So where might crude's rally reverse, popping an asset bubble that has been building for more more than three decades? The chart above makes a persuasive case for a bull-market top at $141. That would represent an 8% gain over this month's so-far peak at 130.50, and a 33% gain over the current $106.  The May contract shown may need to correct for a

Last week's high fell almost precisely at the 'D' target of a middling rABC pattern, presumably maxing out the upside for the moment, and that is why we can use the bearish pattern shown to get a handle on this vehicle in the week ahead despite its obviousness and plain-vanillaness. Most immediately, that would imply bottom-fishing at p=4227.38 as a tightly stopped scalp-trade, and subsequently shorting at the green line (x), assuming it's hit via the right kind of bounce. For now, use 4227.38 as a minimum downside target for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:49 a.m. EST): It is unusual and mildly disconcerting for a perfectly located, 4227.38 midpoint support to have failed to gift us with a bottom-fishing trade. The futures fell to within an inch of the trigger price, then bounced sharply. The HP Method 'textbook ' provides two possible explanations: 1) the droolers and algos have finally begun to recognize the usefulness of this key HP level; or, 2) buying power is waxing and was too strong to allow a correction to reach p. I lean toward the latter interpretation, but without necessarily having it negate the former. The implication is that this rally will at least exceed C=4418.75. Here's the chart. [Further update, 10:40 a.m.: The bounce reached the green line (x=4323.06), but it did not qualify as a ‘mechanical’ short, since the bounce was coming off a low that had failed to touch p.] ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 7:40 p.m.): Considering what's going on in the world, sellers looked most unimpressive as they batted down the futures a measly 146 points. When they come to their senses, look for the S&Ps to fall 400-600 points in a day, an event that would be commensurate with the excesses that have preceeded it. In the meantime,