Although bitcoin got savaged Sunday morning when it opened more than $11,000 beneath Friday's close, the plunge would not have stopped out a long position acquired 'mechanically' at p=$57,676, the red line. I had not recommended the trade explicitly, but I am mentioning it now to buttress your awareness of how powerful upthrusts such as we have seen in bitcoin tend to produce 'mechanical' buy signals that are profitable. Realize as well that 'dynamic' moves invariably beget violent counterswings such as Sunday's. In any event, the 72,230 target of the pattern shown remains viable, as does possible resistance at 66,680, the 'D' target of another pattern. A relapse is possible as well, and that's why I'll suggest partial-profit-taking when possible if you did the trade on your own initiative. A second buy signal would be triggered if the relapse were to touch the green line at 50,400. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:26 p.m. ET): There's no question that a pullback to the green line (50,400) would trigger a quite enticing 'mechanical' buy, especially since no set-up of this magnitude has failed to produce a profit. The trade is certain to be telling if it triggers, and if it works, my gut feeling is that the turn will have come not at the green line, but from around 48,804, a 'd' pivot culled from the decline since last week's record high at 64,858. I will create a tracking position in any case, but my advice is to paper-trade this one unless you have made far more on bitcoin than the nearly $30k you'd be risking on four lots. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:02 p.m.): What a thrashing bulls and bears are getting! That's why I will continue to focus on the bigger picture, as above, tuning out the noise. _______ UPDATE
I've stretched the pattern to produce a 413.45 target that maxes out the monthly chart and which is roughly congruent with a long-term target at 4905 in the E-Mini S&P. The pattern uses a 'marquee' low for point 'A', which is not ideal. In this case, however, it seemed logical in preference to either of the indistinct, one- and two-off lows recorded in 2010 and 2011. Bulls have pushed past the 297.98 midpoint resistance with authority, shortening the odds that D=413.45 will be reached. For now, though, the secondary pivot (p2) at 355.61 can be used as a minimum upside objective. I will be closely monitoring price action there to gauge how much buying power remains. There may be an opportunity to get short at p2, so stay tuned to the chat room or your email 'Notifications' if you care. _____ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:36 p.m. ET): Weakness stretched into a second day. This is somewhat unusual these days, but a third 'down' day would be almost freakish. Wait and watch! _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 8:16 a.m.): DIA has receded slightly from Monday's all-time high. If this is a Titanic disaster in the making, the ship has just left Liverpool. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:06 p.m.): Three straight down days? The odds are better that the sun will fail to rise in the East tomorrow. The lesson is that you'll have a hard time losing money if you take home a long position at the end of a second straight down day on Wall Street. ______ UPDATE (Apr 22, 10:09): It's refreshing to imagine that today's moderate selloff was the start of a catastrophe, but I doubt it. The 345.33 rally target in this chart looks all but certain to be hit, given the gap through p=332.98 on the first
With Friday's stall very precisely at p=26.37, we are about to find out what this rally, now in its third week, is made of. A decisive push past this midpoint Hidden Pivot, especially with a close above it, would signal an imminent ascent to the 29.00 target (inset). For reasons that are technically too involved to get into, let me say that the rally pattern is quite fetching, implying that any 'mechanical' trigger signaled is likely to yield a profit. Risk is another matter, however, since the spacing between entry levels implies initial theoretical risk of $6600 per contract. We can work with it in real time, most effectively in crowdsource mode, so please signal your interest at appropriate times. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:13 p.m. ET): Burn, baby, burn! The May contract popped through p=26.37 with such brio that it is now and odds-on bet to achieve a minimum 29.00 in this bull cycle, which began from 23.74 on March 31. (And congratulations to 'Farmer', who not only nailed the low to-the-day, but provided a high-decibel heads-up in the Rick's Picks chat room when the futures were bottoming out.) The pattern we've been using promises to work well for 'mechanical' entries on the way up, so stay tuned. _____ UPDATE (Apr 22, 10:14 p.m.): Well, okay, I jumped the gun. Let's stipulate that the futures close above p=26.37 for two straight days before we break out the Rondel Brut bubbly.
June Gold cleared a key hurdle on Friday by an inch, triggering a theoretical buy signal tied to a 2083.90 target. First things first, however, meaning we should set our sights no higher than p=1880.10 for the time being. This midpoint Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for a climb that would take about 2-3 weeks, assuming the bullishness evident in Silver is present. Even though the rally has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, this is the most bullish price action we've seen in gold since last summer. A longer-term chart allows for a projection of 2286, (A=681 in October, 2008), but it would take two weekly closes above 1976 to warrant getting excited about it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:45 p.m. ET): Bulls got sandbagged in the early going, generating an impulsive decline that projects to as low as 1752.90 over the near-term. You can bottom-fish there with a 'reverse ABC' pattern using this chart's 'b'as your point 'A' for the reversal. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:41 p.m.): The correction never even got close to the secondary pivot at 1758.90, let alone the 'd' target $6 below it. This is bullish price action, and it projects most immediately to 1792.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:20 p.m.): June Gold closed above the green line (1778.10), putting a midpoint resistance at 1880.10 in play (see inset) as minimum upside objective for the near-to-intermediate -erm.
A month of trying has yet to push this brick above a 234.82 target that first hit our marquee months ago. This is notwithstanding recent hype from JP Morgan promising that bull-mania would soon shift back from growth to alleged 'value' for a significant period of time. This manifestly did not occur last week, but sometimes it can take a while for the chimps who manage your money to get on the same page. Technically speaking, the pattern shown is too beautifully head-and-shoulders-y to ignore as a potential bearish signpost, but a crash would seem to be most unlikely, given the rosy outlook for other indexes tracked herein. We shall see, but for now IWM does not look like a scintillating bet. If you're keen to have a horse in the race anyway, I would encourage you to butterfly the July 16 175/180/185 puts for under 10 cents. (They were being quoted on a bid/asked of -0.07/0.22.) If you're not sure how to do this, watch the free video on butterfly spreads that's accessible via your account dashboard. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 8:12 a.m. ET): Subscribers have responded enthusiastically to my trade suggestion, reporting a flutter of butterflies. Now, as always, cash out of half of them if they double in price -- and please let me know. _____ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:24 p.m.): Subscribers went butterfly crazy today, netting some excellent specimens tied to the recommendation above. Check out the discussion in the chat room for details and ideas, including a strategy for legging into the 'fly for nothing. If you're in on the game, offer half of the spreads you acquired for twice what you paid, good till canceled.
Subscribers reported profiting from a 4103.25 rally target I'd drum-rolled here two weeks ago, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some of you were long part of the way up, while others got short at the target using a 'reverse rABC pattern' I'd put out earlier that evening. Because the futures topped at 4102.50, less than a point from my number, it was easy money -- as much as $900 per contract in mere hours. We began Friday not knowing whether the top would hold, but like countless others since 2009, the bullish herd made quick work of it. This implies that the June contract is likely to reach a minimum 4200.44, the secondary pivot shown in the chart. Moreover, if this 'hidden' resistance, too, is crushed, we would need to shift our sights up to 4536.50. That's as high as the daily chart goes, and therefore a great place to attempt getting short with the usual ultra-tight stop-loss. Notice that the move through p=3864.38 was more of a drift than an impalement. That means I cannot quite guarantee that either of these Hidden Pivot objectives will be reached. However, the lower one at 4200 looks like about an 85% shot to get hit; and 4536, about 75%. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance on getting short with risk extremely tightly controlled. As long-time subscribers may have noticed, we've had little trouble making money over the years by going against the crazed herd precisely at promising Hidden Pivot targets. (Recall that a 234.82 target in IWM target that caught the all-time high in mid-March within pennies has yet to be exceeded following a 27-point plunge amounting to almost 12%.) _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 9:27 p.m.): While we're waiting for El Diablo to ascend to
I am temporarily adding the Dow Industrials to my list of touts in order to show bull market targets at 34,355 and 37,093 that correspond to the ones I've flagged in the June E-Mini S&P. They are closely comparable, reflecting potential thrusts of either 1.6% of 9.7%, depending on whether p2 or D, if either, stops the bullish stampede. The respective targets for the E-Mini S&P lie 2% and 10% above, implying that a last-gasp rally could show slight relative strength compared to the Dow. I should mention that the DJIA chart is much less compelling than the E-Mini's, since it uses a 'marquee' low rather than a one-off, and because the point 'B' high has conspicuously failed to exceed the record high notched in March 2020. Because of these flaws, I would not ordinarily pay much attention to the Dow chart, let alone use it to trade or project a top. However, because it aligns so closely with the textbook-perfect chart of E-Minis, it is at least worth pondering, and perhaps using to get short at p2 or D with tight stops. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:47 p.m. ET): Two days of weakness is unusual, but a third on Wednesday would be concerning. Even if so, it is grotesquely overdue. _______ UPDATE (Apr 22, 10:20 p.m.): A rally target at 34,549 corresponds to the one at 345.33 given in my latest DIA update. Either is short-able with the tightest stop-loss you can abide, or via an rABC set-up with a very small a-b leg.
The 345.58 target we've been using came into even sharper focus with last week's rally, athough we should be alert to a possible stall at p2=339.34, the secondary pivot. I've suggested shorting both with very tight stops, provided you've been making hay on the way up. This pattern is clearer and more compelling than the one I've flagged for the DJIA, and it is the one you should favor if you trade this vehicle. Most immediately, that would imply placing a 'mechanical' bid at the red line (333.10), stop 328.94. You should do so only if DIA first trades a bit higher, topping in the range 339.00-340.21. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 9:13 p.m. ET): Buyers bulldozed p2=339.34, implying that more upside to at least 345.58 is all but certain.
After ceding the spotlight for a while to the small-cap IWM, the Cubes are back in fashion, moving toward a 355.05 target with a series of lunatic leaps. One of them created a gap through the 326.27 midpoint Hidden Pivot, leaving zero doubt that the target will be achieved. The pattern is an odd one, with a very elongated A-B segment, but it should be good enough for government work. In practice, this means that any one-level pullback can be bought 'mechanically'. So far, none of the retracements have qualified, but that doesn't mean we can't initiate trades using rABC patterns of smaller degree. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:59 p.m. EST): If the decline steepens and hits p=326.27, that would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 316.67. Here's a chart that shows it.
Last week's moderate uptrend has improved the look of the 'reverse' pattern given here earlier -- so much so that it promises to be a money-maker for months to come. That implies that May Silver has a good chance of reaching the 29.00 target, but even if not, 'mechanical' trades from x, p or even p2 will benefit from the clarity of this picture. D=29.00 is now in play theoretically, but we'll use p=26.37 as a minimum upside objective for now. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I'll provide intraday guidance to squeeze off a low-risk trade intraday. Otherwise, Pivoteers are encouraged to dive in at will, using 'reverse ABC set-ups and 'mechanical' triggers on the lesser charts to squash entry risk. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:32 p.m. ET): See my 13:28 post in the chat room, which in response to a question belatedly offered up this rABC set-up as the sort of opportunity we should look for to test the water with very tightly controlled entry risk.
