Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target. For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.
The hot fling that small-caps had with money managers earlier this year appears to be over, leaving IWM to toss about in heavy seas. After all, what is the appeal of 'value' stocks when lunatic-sector growthies are routinely taking daily leaps of 2% or more? The answer, graphically speaking, is a chart that projects highs only marginally above the record peak at 235.12 achieved in mid-March. Less optimistically, a couple more weeks of floundering around could add bearish shapeliness to the incipient head-and-shoulders pattern shown, auguring a fall down to the 200 level. If this is what is about to occur, IWM is not long for this list. Kick 'em when they're down, I always say. _____ UPDATE (Apr 13, 9:43 p.m.): When the ass bandits at JP Morgan speak, we can be sure they are talking their book. In this case, they've shoved analyst Marko Kolanovic onstage to hype an impending shift from growth back to value "for a significant period." If so, the push in this vehicle to 235.12 should get under way any day now. The levels shown in the chart can be used to set-up 'mechanical' entries, or less risky 'camouflage' triggers on smaller charts.
Bitcoin has been a 'mechanical' trader's dream, since virtually every buy signal that has occurred on the longer-term charts has been a winner. For your guidance, I've been paper-trading a 47,485 buy signal from late February that is tied to a 66,880 target. It survived a 41,500 stop-loss and was ripe for profit-taking on half the position at 57,363, a secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot that comes from the weekly chart. The new chart (see inset) shows a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 50,400 that occurred on March 25. Although it is too late to act on the signal, I am reproducing the graph nonetheless in order to introduce a new target at 72,230 that can take supplant the old one at 69,172. Because of the clarity of the pattern, I expect a tradeable top to occur at or very near the target. The move through p has been labored, so we should expect the remaining trek to D to be herky-jerky, if not to say tortuous. As always, a dramatic blast through the D target (72,230) on first contact would imply that seemingly fantastic prices above $100,000 are actually feasible. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 11:22 p.m. ET): Buyers repeatedly head-butted p2=64,953 of the pattern targeted on 72.230 but eventually gave up. They'll be back, presumably to blast their way past this secondary pivot for a shot at 72,230. Don't forget about D=66,880, the target of the original, long-term pattern, since it could prove stubborn.
May Silver came within a half-cent on Thursday of tripping a theoretical 'buy' signal at 25.05 tied to a rally target at 29.00. The rally began Wednesday from a 23.74 low 46 cents above a 23.28 Hidden Pivot support I'd flagged as a potentially juicy buying opportunity. Some of you may have jumped the gun, to good advantage, since, in the chat room, 'Farmer' did everything but fire a cannon to alert subscribers to an imminent turn based on his own 'technicals'. We shall see. If the rally lengthens, surpassing some small 'external' peaks shown in the chart without pausing for breath, that would be most encouraging, especially since it will have begun with a clear correction target having gone unfulfilled. The pattern shown in the chart is a 'reverse ABC', but I expect it to be serviceable for trading purpose and for gauging the strength of the rally along the way. A two-day close above p=26.37 or a spike decisively through it intraday would strongly imply more upside to D=29.00. _____ UPDATE (Apr 5, 5:41 p.m. EDT): A timid feint higher Sunday night tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal, but the futures have gone nowhere since. On balance I am mildly bullish, using the pattern shown in this chart for now. Notice that today's pullback to the green line triggered a seemingly appealing 'mechanical' buy that is only slight profitable at the moment after having gone $850-per-contract in the red intraday. The pattern's 25.47 'D' pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for Tuesday. ______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 10:36 a.m.): The futures popped exactly to the 25.47 target in the dead of night, pulled back briefly then launched a new leg higher. The 25.775 target shown in this chart can serve as a minimum upside objective for now, but
I've scaled back my ambitions for this vehicle in favor of a more practical chart that promises to get us aboard the rally to 355.05 that is likely coming. The 'mechanical' opportunity that would follow a single-level pullback is a no-brainer, but we can hardly count on such good fortune, so we may have to improvise on the fly. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since any low-risk 'camouflage' or rABC set-ups that materialize are most likely to happen intraday on the lesser charts. ______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 5:44 p.m. ET): This morning's opening-bar gap through p=326.27 all but guarantees that 355.05 will be reached._______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 8:16 p.m.): The 335.05 target still looks like a winner, but I should have mentioned that p2=346.66 is a logical -- and potentially tradeable -- place for a stall. Here's the chart.
Value-shmalue! IWM's trajectory has flattened considerably, a victim of the fickle tastes of chimpanzees who make their living recklessly pelting theme-of-the-month stocks with Other People's Money. Although these guys may have professed love for small-caps, the romance was not fated to last, given that their real passion is lunatic-sector growth stocks that sport ridiculous multiples and get lots of fawning publicity. Indeed, the FAANGs and other Wall Street hotties have perked up again, to the detriment of shares in companies that offer unsexy products and services. Under the circumstances, the 235.12 target shown in this chart is the best I can offer you at the moment. A pullback to the green line (214.23) should be regarded as an excellent opportunity to get long 'mechanically'.
The futures spent three days consolidating for a pre-Easter push toward the 4103.25 rally target first flagged here a week ago. It remains valid and should be achieved by no later than midweek. As always, an easy move past so compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance would imply that still-higher prices are coming. The futures have not pulled back enough to permit a 'mechanical' entry, but we should be alert to the opportunity as the new week begins. It would require a pullback from the pink line to the red, ideally within the space of a 24-hour period. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 8:25 p.m.): At press time, the futures were slithering to within inches of the 4103.25 target. You can short it using the tight rABC pattern shown in this chart. I would suggest 'dropping anchor' with a point 'c' high only when the futures have reached 4102.75 or higher. The small a-b segment of this 'reverse' set-up will limit risk to a theoretical $150 or so per contract -- about all the trade is worth, considering that we'll be fading a tsunami of crazed buying.
Last week's subdued price action failed to push DIA past the 332.99 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, so the 345.58 [corrected] rally target given here earlier is still not fully in play. It would be, however, following a two-day close above p or a sharp move through it intraday. A theoretical buy signal has nonetheless been in effect for ten days after triggering with a rally to the green line. However, it may be asking too for DIA to revisit the line to give us a second chance to get long 'mechanically'. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:36 p.m. EDT): The lunatic leap through p=333.10 on the opening bar implies that more upside to at least D=345.58 over the near term is all but certain. [Note: Both of these Hidden Pivot resistances have been corrected slightly.] You can short 345.58 aggressively with a tight stop if you've made money on the way up.
Gold tripped a so-so mechanical short Thursday when it rallied to 1730.70, the green line. When I mentioned this in the chat room, I rated the trade a 7.0; however, on closer inspection it is not quite so appealing. For one, the three legs of the pattern are too mellow; and for two, the rally to 'x' began above the sweet spot. Because of the $14,000 initial risk on four contracts, I advised initiating the trade with an 'reverse ABC 'pattern on the hourly chart that has yet to trigger. It would reduce theoretical risk to around $1000. I am now suggesting that you cancel the trade until we've seen how gold opens following a three-day weekend. If the June contract pushes above C=1756.00 it would be as bullish a sign as we've seen in bullion in a while. Alternatively, if the futures relapse you can use 1614.60 as a downside target. That would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long, as far as I'm concerned. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:45 p.m. EDT): This rally looks like doo-doo, with upthrusts that are failing to surpass prior peaks on the hourly chart. I'll take this as mildly bullish, since gold has a nasty habit of reversing when it looks worst, and of dying just when one feels encouraged.
Bears got ambushed Friday in the final hour, setting up a likely short squeeze to begin the new week. If so, it is just an inch to new record highs that would likely pull the broad averages along. Most significant among them is the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been feigning weakness for the last six weeks while fund managers rotated funds from growthies to relative 'value' stocks. The E-Mini S&Ps seem all but certain to move to new heights, but if the FAANGs and other 'lunatic' stocks get in gear with them, bears had better retreat to their bomb shelters. In any case, you can use the 4103.25 target shown in this chart as a minimum upside objective if buyers push this gas bag decisively above p=3973.25 intraday or close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 p.m. EDT): The futures have played patticake all week with the 3973 pivot, biding their time until the Archegos disaster blows over. They have lost no ground, however, and appeared revved at today's clos to rally ahead of the three-day weekend.
