Rick’s Picks

Gold has been screwing the pooch for five months, vexing bulls and bears alike. The most promising rally over the period was the 200-pointer that occurred between October 30 and January 6. It failed by an inch to exceed an important November peak at 1973, however, casting doubt on a pullback that now threatens to inundate the daily chart. A far larger, bullish structure going back to 2016 remains quite robust, however, and the 1450 print it would take to seriously impair it appears to be out of bears' reach for the foreseeable future. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 8:36 p.m. EST): This pattern is my kind of gnarly. Play for a bounce from p=1810.20 with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide. ______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:36 p.m.): Today's stupid spasm changed nothing.

Silver's chart differs bullishly from gold's in one subtle respect: the 27% rally from December's $22 low slightly exceeded a technically important 'external' peak. This created an encouraging impulse leg that has survived a pullback so far to 24. The selloff did not generate a 'mechanical' buying signal, however, because the peak of the rally narrowly failed to hit the red line as required. We are therefore left on the sidelines for the time being, rooting for silver while awaiting a better opportunity. It could conceivably come in the form of a 'mechanical' buy on a correction of a rally to around 28. Stay tuned if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 8:41 p.m. EST): A Hidden Pivot support at 24.73 is equivalent to the one in March Gold that I've suggested bottom-fishing with the tightest stop-loss you can handle (30-min, A=26.73 on 1/8). _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 8:48 p.m.):  The futures trampolined 75 cents after bottoming a penny-and-a-half below my 24.73 target. If you'd bottom-fished there as I'd suggested, the trade would have worked with a stop-loss as tight as two cents and would have reaped a gain of as much as $3,750 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:42 p.m.): Although gold barely merited a yawn today, Silver popped through p=26.21 in this chart with such brio that more upside to at least D=28.39 appears likely over the next 2-3 days.

Since few believe that the current bloodbath in bitcoin will stifle cryptomania, I've hauled out an ambitious chart that extends the bullish imagination above 50,000. Of course, a rally to that number would be a mere pisher for hard-core crypto fans. Many of them are gamers who, it must be admitted, got aboard for chump change two years before most of us had even heard the word blockchain. Their bull-market targets range upwards of $500,000, but here's a little something for you guys to ponder before you risk a downpayment on that lynx-colored Gallardo: the 'Tether problem'.  Tether aside, anyone can see in the chart that bitcoin will probably need to spill more blood to properly correct a leg as insanely steep as the run-up from 10,000 in October to a high earlier this week of 42,000. The so-far low of the nearly 30% correction since is 30,052. However, BRTI, which reflects the best bid/offer in real time across many cryptocurrency markets, would need to fall to 25,948 to reach the 50% threshold, and to 22,166 to hit the 61.8% Fibo.  Ouch!  No recent correction on the lesser charts has come even close to 50%, but this time could be different, since Mr. Market has a way of seeding doubts in even the most rabid bulls when they get too cocky. Whatever happens, if you trade this monster or one of its derivatives, you should stay closely tuned to Rick's Picks, since the 'mechanical' entry set-ups we use to profit from the markets are well suited to harnessing even the most violent steeds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 23): BRTI has retraced a bit more of December's rally as anticipated and would now trigger a theoretical 'buy' signal if this bounce touches the green line. The 'D' target associated with x is

Gold futures seem poised to head at least moderately lower this week after failing to exceed anything significant on the last rally.  The pattern shown projects to a 1751.60 Hidden Pivot support. That would negate the point 'C' low of a far bigger, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 2166.90.  December's failed rally did not quite reach the 1967.10 midpoint resistance, telegraphing the weakness that has followed. In a headline last week, I told investors not to give up on gold.  That is still my advice, although we cannot rule out the possibility that the weakness will eventually test March's watershed low at 1461.70. I seriously doubt it will get that bad, but in the meantime, absent an impulsive rally exceeding November's 1973.40 peak, a turnaround does not appear to be in the cards. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:35): How unimpressive was today's rally?  Unimpressive enough, actually, to trigger a so-so 'mechanical' short at 1835.90, stop 1864.10.  We shall see. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:40 p.m.):  The rally stopped out the point 'C' high of a bearish pattern, but I still don't trust it. I've set my snooze alarm at 1973.40, a tick above a key 'external' peak made on 11/9. If February gold prints there, bulls will gain some credibility and the futures will be on their way to a 2166.90 target I haven't mentioned in a while.

The futures have rolled down from an interesting place, a millimeter shy of the 3828.00 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. This is not an illogical place for  a trend to fail, even a major one, and it is somewhat encouraging for subscribers who bought puts in QQQ, DIA and IWM over the last couple of weeks as advised.  The selloff has yet to develop legs, however, and would need to hit 3595.75, breaching a key 'external' low recorded on December 21, to become technically significant. Along the way, the weakness would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at p=3717.75, stop 3644.25. However, we'll look to create a less risky entry set-up if and when the opportunity arises. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:50 .m.): Bulls appear to have clinched the remaining 90 points to a 3938.25 target first mentioned here ten days ago. Any higher would indicate a minimum 3967.75, an even more important Hidden Pivot  resistance given here earlier. We'll want to attempt getting short up there, so stay tuned. ______ UPDATE (Jan 22, 8:35 a.m.): We could be witnessing the start of the Trump rally in reverse -- i.e., a bear market -- so let's put that 3938.25 target aside for the moment. A 217.59 target in IWM that is arguably more important has effectively been fulfilled via a so-far high at 215.98.

Silver's chart is more bullish than gold's, since the December rally exceeded an important external peak. This will allow us to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 24.12 midpoint support shown in the chart, although we shouldn't count too heavily on it to turn the futures around. An rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be used to initiate the trade, so nudge me in the chat room if it triggers on Tuesday and you need guidance.  If the pivot is easily exceeded, that would imply additional downside over the near term to as low as D=22.25. _______ UPDATE (Jan 18, 11:46 a.m. EST): Silver's Whoopee Cushion bounce Sunday night off a 24.04 low could have been worth as much as $5000 per contract to anyone who used this somewhat unconventional rABC set-up. Shifting 'A' to the visually more obvious low at 24.73 would have produced a winner as well, yielding a slightly larger gain. If you're still aboard, caution is advised, since the rally, robust though it was, failed to generate an impulse leg on the intraday charts. That would require a print at 25.19, 17 cents above the so-far high. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:38 p.m.): The rally looks corrective, although a rally exceeding last Thursday's 25.99 peak would turn it impulsive. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:57 p.m.):  The plunge to the green line two weeks ago may have looked like a 'mechanical' buy, but I did not advise it because it came from a peak that fell just shy of p=28.30. Once decisively above this Hidden Pivot resistance, bulls would have a fighting chance of reaching 34.67.

Much as I'd like to encourage you, the chart offers little reason for enthusiasm over the near term.  It was hard not to notice on the last rally that bulls were too enfeebled to reach the midpoint resistance at 1967.10 (see inset), let alone impale November 9's 'external' peak at 1973.30. Even more dispiriting, the subsequent downdraft generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart when it exceeded by a decisive $2.90  an 'external' low at 1820.00 recorded on December 14. Taken together, these signs suggest that we should not get our hopes too high looking out perhaps 6-9 days. The bigger picture remains bullish but unexciting.

The chart introduces a new target and a pattern that has worked beautifully since its inception in early November. On the way to the 3938.25 target, it delivered a textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line just before Christmas and has the potential to do so again with a pullback to p=3717.75. Even if this doesn't happen we'll still have a target we can use for a precise and reliable handle on the trend.  I do not intend for the target to supersede one at 3967.75 that comes from a much larger pattern that has been featured here for a while. But the provenance of the new one is so compelling that it warrants being our focus for the time being.  The quick ABC followed asymmetrically by an elongated C-D segment yields some of the most reliable and useful targets I have observed, and that's why I am so jazzed about this one. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. The futures have spent the last five days lollygagging within inches of the target pattern's secondary pivot at 3828.00. It's neither illogical nor inconceivable for a bull market to fail at this benchmark, but it would take a plunge exceeding the 3596.00 'external' low recorded on 12/21 to nail down such a bearish conclusion. ______ UPDATE (Jan 15, 11:50 a.m.): The hard stall at p2=3828, as well as my growing suspicion that the jig is up for the bull hoax begun on March 23, makes me less eager to buy p=3717.75 'mechanically'. Cancel the bid, although I'll still sanction bottom-fishing there if you know how to use an rABC set-up to cut the $5500 entry risk down to a theoretical $300 or so per contract.

The pattern shown is a '10' on the gnarly scale, but that won't diminishes its odds of working for us. That means you can use the 213.16 target as a minimum upside projection for the near term. It should also suffice as place to try shorting with a tight stop-loss, a trade that I recommend using put options if you've made money on the way up. Be alert to a possible stall that may be short-able at exactly 211.36. That's the 'D' target of a lesser pattern on the hourly chart that began with Dec 2's 180.76 low. As always, if bulls punch through the higher target with ease, that would imply another leg up after a pullback. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 5:14 p.m.): Careful!  IWM stalled three cents from the 'alternative' Hidden Pivot flagged above. The very shallow pullback since would seem to imply bulls are game for a possible finishing stroke to 213.16. If you shorted the high, stick with it for now and let me know in the chat room what position you hold. ______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 6:20 p.m.): Subscribers were advised to buy a few Feb 5 170 puts for around 0.22, in case next week's inauguration does not come off as smoothly as expected.  I'd say the chances of that are around 20%-25%, but our puts effectively give us much juicier odds.  IWM traded as high as 215.00, today, implying the mindless herd is intent on stampeding at least a little higher. However, I've advised put buyers to put the trade out of mind, since we are just taking a shot. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 8:01 p.m.): See my 17:50 post in the trading room today for timely guidance.