The Naz would fall about 5% short of doubling off the March 23 low if it achieves the 12529 target shown, but who could possibly be disappointed? It would become a talking point for Campaign Trump, even though even Joe Sixpack must understand by now that the rally is, to put it mildly, unwarranted. An interesting technical aspect of the chart is that if speculators defer for a couple of months to the resurgence of the pandemic, sending this hoax spiraling down to x=8103, that would set up a 'mechanical' buy of the back-up-the-truck kind. To speak of boarding at these levels is overreach, since we'd be in the midst of a stampede that favors only buffaloes that are able to run to the horizon without tiring. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:45): Today's wicked reversal will have caught most investors with their pants down while also scaring the crap out of them. Look for them to attempt distribution on weak buying, and to grow increasingly desperate over the next few days. Prices will be significantly lower a week from now. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:07 p.m. EDT): The herd reversed Monday's selling in the first hour, and then it was off to the races. Their binge took an added, manic leap as the night session began, warning bears to get out of the way and challenging any trader or investor looking for an easy out to "make my day." A minor, uptrending pattern (5-min, A=10,525 at 3:20 p.m.) as we went to press projected to D=10,799.25 and should be considered by night owls looking for a way to get aboard. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:30); Nice try, fellas, but today's dirigible ride failed by more than 30 points to achieve the 10799 target. I've emphasized the downside in this chart accordingly,
The by-now familiar 3392.75 targets looks capable of turning back the stampede, if only perhaps temporarily. It's not quite a lock, however, given that it has taken this gas-bag a month to break out above the 3158 midpoint pivot. Expect a balky move to D over the next several weeks. If the futures should surprise by falling apart on increasingly grim pandemic news, you should view it as a buying opportunity. Armageddon, on the other hand, could slow the ascent, but there might still be buying opportunities ahead of Earth's being returned to a molten state. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:27 p.m. EDT): The brute power of today's turnaround justifies using the 3275.00 secondary pivot shown in the chart as a minimum upside projection for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 9:45 p.m.): The immediate trajectory is bullish, but only faintly so. Use this pattern to trade ES on Friday, but you can adjust the point 'C' downward if necessary.
Gold's bullish slog has been tortuous, even if there has never been much doubt about where it's headed. The chart shows an 1875.20 target for the August contract that we've used to stay on the right side of the market and to keep the many setbacks along the way in perspective. A pullback to the red line at 1771.80 would set up a tempting 'mechanical' buying opportunity, but we shouldn't expect the market to oblige just because we've proven our patience. We'll continue to scalp off the Hidden Pivot levels with timely posts in the chat room, but getting a piece of the final thrust to D won't be easy because gold is finally attracting its fair share of bulls. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:42 p.m. EDT): The pattern shown in this chart, with a target at 1825.90, can be used to get aboard as the futures slowly make their way toward the more ambitious target flagged above. The A-B impulse leg is not exactly a killer, but it looks strong enough to favor mechanical entries on pullbacks to any of the three Hidden Pivot levels: p, p2 or D. Stay tuned to the chat room for timely ideas.
Tesla's explosive rally last week stalled almost precisely at the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting to 1803.69. Investors and thrill-seekers focused on the round number $2000 may find the shortfall disappointing, but the target looks like a decent bet to cap one of the most insane short squeezes in the crazy history of the stock market. All three levels -- p, p2 and D -- will be in play for purposes of getting aboard, or possible getting short, so stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely updates. Newcomers in particular should pay close attention to the way 'mechanical' trades help us tame and exploit the most rabid beasts. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:51): I hadn't imagined TSLA would reach my seemingly ambitious target in a single day, but it did. The fleeting top just 0.4% from my target gave way to a stunning reversal that is going to leave bulls not just cautious, but fearful. Look for weak, distributive action this week, turning increasingly urgent by week's end. ______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:49 p.m. EDT): Bulls stood their ground, settling into a tight range that looked more like accumulation than distribution. The implication is that they will soon be ready to romp again, and to challenge Monday's absurd, bull-trap peak without losing more than a step or two. Crazy! ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:47 p.m.): Bulls were not as impressive as I'd expected, possibly because there was too much buying interest at the open to take the stock down and deplete sellers. Look for sloppy price action, possibly mutating into distribution, over the next day or two.
The chart show an unachieved rally target at 391.08 that looks very likely to be achieved within a day or two. Last week's gap through the midpoint pivot all but clinched the move, and the consolidation just above it sweetens the odds of a profitable short when AAPL gets there. Since we are jumping in the path of a speeding freight train, you should risk no more on options than you could part with painlessly. I'd recommend buying soon-to-expire puts that are selling for under $1.00. If the target is hit today, the July 17 370 puts should fit our needs. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:58 p.m.): The early-morning spike 2% above such a clear Hidden Pivot target as 391.08 suggests bulls are not yet finished, but they will struggle mightily to make any headway over the next 3-5 days, if not longer. There's a lot of ruin in an empire, as the saying goes, so don't count out this hoax quite yet. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 9:08 p.m.): Bulls struggled, although not mightily as I'd expected. Rising from the canvas after taking what should have been a knockout blow on Monday, they looked jaunty enough to push toward a 399.78, midpoint resistance that would tie the all-time high at $400 recorded just two days ago. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:52 p.m.): The stock's engineered leap on the opening bar came within spitting distance of the 399.78 target, but it turned into a bull trap when AAPL relapsed $11 over the next two hours. This is distributive behavior, although I stop short of suggesting that leveraging the downside will be easy. My own target price for getting short would be around 398.25, possibly using a 'reverse' ABC pattern. I'm prepared, however, to see the stock get nowhere near this threshold, which is
A 385.48 rally target aired here last week caught the top of today's rally within 21 cents, allowing at least one subscriber to get short at the top. There may have been others with similar reports, but a server problem that persisted for the entire day prevented any discussion of it in the Trading Room. I won't establish a tracking position unless I hear from a few more of you, but you should be aware nonetheless that a thrust above Thursday's high would portend more likely upside to the 398.46 target shown in the chart. The pattern looks too obvious to work with the kind of precision we have come to expect, but it is almost certain to show tradeable stopping power, since it maxes out ABC patterns on the daily chart. Whatever happens, as I never tire of reminding you, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market (notwithstanding today's anomalous divergence). I will continue to track AAPL closely for that reason, so stay tuned for updates intraday.
Bulls have struggled for three weeks to punch through the 3168 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart, but they have been going at it more aggressively lately and look like a good bet to succeed. If and when the futures close for two consecutive days above the pivot, or exceed it by more than 50 points, a finishing stroke to D=3392 target would become an odds-on bet. In the meantime, a swoon to x=3041.00, the green line, would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 2923.50. This trade carries entry risk of $6000 per contract, so we will look for ways to cut that by perhaps 90% if the opportunity arises. Stay tuned. ______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 9:45 p.m.): Bulls are struggling for altitude under the weight of pandemic news that is more than a little discouraging . The futures would nonetheless become a fetching mechanical buy on a pullback to x=3041.00, stop 2923.50.
Short-covering last week effortlessly shredded an 1142 Hidden Pivot resistance on the weekly chart, telegraphing the blow-off that has followed. It will likely terminate at or near the 1267.89 target shown, and I would therefore suggest using that Hidden Pivot as a minimum upside projection for now. It is sufficiently clear and compelling for us to infer that a move past it is unlikely if not impossible. When big-picture targets are exceeded as has occurred here, the logical and practical alternative is to derive a new target from an extension of a smaller pattern. Subscribers who bought Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spreads near 1142 for $1.00 or less should consider buying more of them at 1267 at a different level. They should be pegged this time to the 800 strike, September expiration. Consider wider spreads, such as the 18 Sept 700/800/900 put butterfly, which can currently be acquired for under $3.50 and has the potential to widen to $100. (Note: This would entail selling two 800 puts and buying one 700 put and a 900 put for a net debit of $3.50 or less. This trade is recommended only for experienced option traders. If you leg into it, buy the 900/800 spread first, 1:1, with TSLA near 1267; then short the 800/700 spread after the stock falls from 1267, as we expect. Obviously, there is always a chance TSLA is on its way to $1500 or higher.)_______ UPDATE (July 6, 5:54 a.m. EDT): All bets are off. The stock has gapped up through the 1267 pivot in pre-dawn trading, headed perhaps to a minimum 1337, or even 1479. These targets can be found by sliding 'A' down to 468.39 on April 3. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 8:25 p.m.): Tesla failed to open on a gap for a change, but it
It looked liked bulls would romp ahead of the holiday weekend, but they grew increasingly cautious as the day wore on and eventually pulled back 20 points shy of the 3175.50 target shown. They were rightfully concerned about the strongly resurgent pandemic and even more fearful that news over three-day weekend would worsen. Even if it does, expect the lunatics to be out in force on Monday, trashing common sense and brimming with confidence that short-covering will keep stocks moving higher. Ordinarily we'd have been bidding on the pullback to the red line (p=3119.13) , stop 3100.30, but not just ahead of a long weekend. Traders could still attempt the 'mechanical' buy if index futures open soft on Sunday evening, but it would be less risky to wait for a pullback to x=3090.14 to go bottom-fishing. Here's a bigger picture that shows why Thursday's stampede halted exactly where it did. The 3392.75 rally target may seem surreal, but it could become an odds-on bet, depending on how the lunatics handle the 3158.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot.
AAPL was a rare laggard last week, gaining a mere 3% while the Nasdaq 100 rose 5%. Even so, there is no reason to think it will not lead the next stampede, or that it will fail to achieve the 378.51 target shown in the chart. This is based on a smaller pattern than the one yielding a 385.48 projection we used last week, but it looks more tradeable. Specifically, a pullback to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 358.09, stop 351.28, risking a theoretical $2728 on four round lots. We'll look for ways to cut the initial risk by perhaps 70%-80% if the opportunity should arise, but under no circumstances should you treat x=358.09 as a likely place for a bullish reversal. It is not in fact a Hidden Pivot support or resistance, just a reference point for certain types of trades that we do. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 8:52 p.m.): AAPL fell more than $6 after coming within a dime of the 378.51 target drum-rolled above. Since no one mentioned this in the chat room, I will assume that trading interest in the stock is nil.
