Rick’s Picks

Friday's steep slide created a robustly bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts that points to as low as 1537.50 over the near term. The futures will have a chance to bounce from 1550.70, a midpoint pivot that you can use to bottom-fish or buy with an rABC set-up. Any lower, especially if the pivot is decisively exceeded, would open a path to the lower target. It's also possible buyers will turn things around without the February contract having reached p. However, that would have no bullish implications until such time as the rally exceeds the 1579.70 'external' peak I've used as the pattern's point 'A'. _____ UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:18 a.m. EST): Panicky sellers drove gold $14 lower in under 30 minutes early Thursday morning, touching a low at 1541.00 that missed my target by $3.50. A subsequent rally to the green line tripped a 'mechanical' short predicated on a 1537.50 target that is still viable. It would take a print  at 1562.50 for bulls to turn things around. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:35 a.m.): Urgent! Here is yet a further update for gold -- a chart that you can use as a road map for the next 2-3 days. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 9:12 p.m.): The short-term outlook has dimmed further with the slow descent toward key support at p=1542.20 (click on the link immediately above to see this). A close beneath it would shorten the odds of further slippage to at least p2=1531.30, or possibly even the 1520.50 target shown in the chart linked in today's earlier update.

This one's just for fun and educational purposes: shorting a stock that has wreaked more damage on bears than any squeeze I can recall. Ever. The chart shows a well defined rally target at precisely 510.14, and it is there that we will attempt to intercept the stock, at least on paper. I'll suggest an rABC set-up with the following coordinates on the 60-minute chart: A=435.31 (12/27 at 10:30 a.m. EST); B= 402.08 (12/31); and C= yet to be determined. C will of course migrate higher and become a moving target as TSLA ascends toward 510.14, but I would suggest pulling the trigger on a relapse to X only after TSLA has traded 508.90 [note: corrected from 497.60] or higher. In this case we'll assume a second attempt, and even a third, if the position gets stopped out.  On the first try, cover 100% of it at p. But if another opportunity trade materializes (irrespective of whether the first has produced a profit or loss), take half off at p, 25% at p2, and the last 25% at D.  Initial theoretical risk for these trades would be about $3300 on 400 shares. The potential gain on try #1 is $3300; and on try 2, about $6000. If the position is stopped out for a profit on #1 and the second try gets to D, the gain would be around $9300. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:14 p.m. EST): The rally sputtered out at 498.49, denying us a chance to get short at the promising Hidden Pivot resistance identified above. We'll back away for now. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 15:55 p.m.): TSLA's pop through so clear a target as 510.14 borders on psychotic. No rABC trade has triggered, but I am no longer recommending the short. Note: When a stock blows past

Reliable patterns have been hard to come by because the rally from early December's low produced no distinctive corrections. I've settled on one that's good enough for government work, however, in order to extrapolate the 3326.25 target shown. The midpoint pivot at 3253.63 can serve in the meantime as a minimum upside objective, since the futures have already tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=3217.31. I've noted in The Morning Line that although we cannot know for certain whether Iran's attack on a U.S. airbase in Iraq will trigger all-out war, it seems unlikely, especially given that the missiles were not targeted on the military base housing most Americans. The attack has temporarily unnerved traders, but look for day-session pros to handle the excitement with more cool. _____ UPDATE (Jan 8, 8:57 p.m.): A powerful rally has unfolded as predicted, adding a whopping 87 points to Tuesday's low. The 3326.25 target is well in play and a good bet to be reached, given the strong initial thrust through p=3253.63. Additional resistance could be felt at p2=3289.94. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:19 p.m.) Last week's stab brought the futures to within three points of p2=3289.94. If a second-wind rally pops through it in the days ahead, that will make more upside to at least 3326.00 more likely. ______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:14 p.m.): The futures have poked slightly above p2 in after-hours trading, but they'll need to break free of its gravity, meaning exceed it by 3-5 points intraday, to make 3326.25 an odds-on bet. A two-day close above it would work, too. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 10:19 p.m.):  After today's extremely tiresome price action, let's raise the bar, stipulating that the futures trade a least 10 points above p2=3289.94 before we ratchet up our bullish bias for day trading. ______

Index futures have opened Sunday night with subdued selling that has yet to test Friday's lows. This suggests there are more bargain hunters around at the moment than panic-stricken sellers. However, DaBoyz are surely distributing as much stock as they can in order to handle the onslaught of market-order 'sells' that are likely to materialize at the opening. As always, a decisive breach of the midpoint pivot, where selling has currently stalled, will imply more downside over the near term to at least D=3189.50. Any bounce from near that number should be regarded as a possible 'counterintuitive' buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 10:19 p.m. EST): Short-covering intensified as the day wore on and was continuing into the night session. The point 'A' low of the pattern shown is weak, but it's all we've got right now to project a target at 3310.50. Let's see first how buyers do at the midpoint resistance, p=3258.63, my minimum upside projection for the near term, before we try to judge how likely 3310.50 is to be achieved, and how soon.

I had 'crowdsourced' GDX to subscribers who trade it avidly, but I'll step up my technical coverage because of a cautionary post by a veteran bullion trader in the Rick's Picks Coffee House. For what it's worth, price action in GDX relative to Hidden Pivot levels has been unambiguously bullish, most recently with last week's impulsive pop on the daily chart above the 29.58 'external' peak of September 24. The chart projects minimum upside to at least p=31.33, and although the move may be other than straightforward, the target looks like an odds-on bet to be achieved at the moment.  I'd suggest buying call options or stock only off rABC patterns or at targeted correction lows. For real-time guidance, tune to the chat room -- or better yet, consider being a guide yourself if you trade this vehicle and understand the entry set-ups noted above. _____ UPDATE (Jan 6, 10:31 p.m. EST): The last four sessions have begun with bull-trap spikes, but if this is distribution, GDX has so far refused to die. My minimum target is still 31.33, and the presumptive rally to that number is sloppier already than I had imagined when I wrote above that it would not be straightforward. It's worse than that, actually, since the miners barely budged with gold futures holding firm in the early going on Monday. We shouldn't expect much help from the Ayatollah, since the stock market has already thumbed its nose at the threat of a global outbreak of terrorism. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:15 p.m.): A pullback to the green line (27.21, stop 25.97) would set up an attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity for a shot at 30.90, at least. Trading Room denizens may be able to improvise a less-risky rABC entry that would use A=28.11 (12/11, daily chart), so

The pattern in the chart is so pretty that it can work for you no matter how you use it. Whether you're eager to get long or short, DIA looks nearly certain to achieve the Hidden Pivot resistance at 294.00 and then to produce a tradeable pullback precisely from it. Why? For two weeks traders were the unwitting slaves of the midpoint pivot at 283.81. That validated the pattern and its target. When buyers finally broke free of p's gravity this morning, the surge all but clinched a run-up to 294.00. Buy out-of-the-money puts for under 0.50 when DIA gets there, but stay tuned to the Trading room for real-time guidance if you're eager to trade with the trend in the meantime. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:06 p.m. EST): The 294.00 rally target remains viable, but be prepared for more selling first. It would take a 292.80 print to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 9:57 p.m.): Dow index futures have sold off hard tonight on news of an Iranian missile attack, exceeding a 282.56 target for DIA that is the lowest I could have projected using Hidden Pivot levels. I am embarrassed to say that the 288.63 top on Jan 2 was the most egregious missed opportunity that I can recall in a long, long while. I must have been asleep at the wheel.  Here's the chart, which makes a short at exactly 288.47 practically glow in the dark. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:25 p.m.): After plummeting 4.47 points, DIA has rebounded to the 288.47 Hidden Pivot noted above. If it can close above it for two consecutive days, look for more upside to the 291.78 target shown in this chart. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:23 p.m.): A relapse to x=285.62 (shown

The Indoos dove more than 300 points last week after topping at the precise intersection of a well advertised trendline and an important Hidden Pivot target. The two obstacles together represented the most formidable technical challenge bulls have faced in more than a year. Ordinarily we might expect a correction lasting at least four to six weeks. But these days, four to six days of weakness seems more likely, given the relentless enthusiasm of buyers and the very narrow list of stocks on which they have trained their buying power. So where to next?  I'd suggest using a 30299 target for now. It comes from the weekly chart and is the secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot of a rally pattern begun from A=15,503 in February of 2016. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:10 p.m.): Before tonight's selloff I'd assumed last Thursday's slight penetration of a very strong trendline was bullish. I still think so, albeit with somewhat reduced confidence. The trendline itself is as clear and compelling as they come, and that's why I think the pop above it holds bullish implications. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:34 p.m.): The Indoos popped above the trendline again before settling about 80 points below it. If they can close for two straight days above the line, look for more upside to at least 29,299. That Hidden Pivot comes from the following coordinates on the daily chart: A=27,801 (12/11); B=28701 (12/27). Please note as well that p2=29,059 could offer resistance that would potentially be tradable. ______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:40 p.m.): Remember that scene in Mars Attacks! where the U.S. military, having failed to stop the aliens with missiles and cannons, explodes a nuclear device in outer space near their spaceship? An alien sucks the mushroom cloud into his lungs

We continue to focus on AAPL's short-to-intermediate-term prospects, since, as long as it is headed higher, the broad averages will be moving in the same direction.  It is the most popular stock in the world right now, and all of the "experts" seem quite certain that it is going to the moon in 2020.  These geniuses will get no argument from me, since even the most daunting Hidden Pivot resistances have failed to slow the stock down for more than a day or two. At the moment, having chomped through granite around $294, AAPL looks bound for the 314.28 target shown. The midpoint pivot at 299.75 is all but guaranteed to effect tradeable resistance, but don't expect it to last for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 1:20 p.m. EST): The trade-desk chimpanzees are out in force today, kicking off the New Year with the only trick they know: buying AAPL hand-over-fist. How courageous! The stock's stall at exactly p=298.50 implies that this pattern, with a 311.77 target, is the one to use to trade this lunatic-powered gas-bag. Earlier, I'd suggested calendar spreading the 315 strike, and that's still not a bad way to go. If anyone puts up an rABC in the Trading Room to get aboard, I'd be happy to vet it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 6:42 p.m.): Check my 14:10 post in the Trading Room for details of a butterfly spread I've recommended. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:09 p.m.): AAPL has opened firm Sunday night, barely dipping beneath Friday's closing price so far. Even so, we should expect DaBoyz to take the stock down at least a point or two, since they have a good opportunity to buy it at a discount. I'll post a new strategy for playing a rally to 311.97 when the stock appears to

So what does your permabear editor see next for the bull market that won't die? For starters, an S&P run-up to the 3348.75 target of the pattern shown. If and when it is reached -- a very good bet, in my estimation -- the Dow Industrials, currently trading for around 28,538, would be at 30,000. The whys and wherefors are irrelevant, since the technical signs are clear enough. Although bulls did not exactly impale the midpoint resistance at 3209.88, they got well past it last week and seem to have turned it from resistance into support. This suggests that we should use p2=3279.31 as a minimum upside projection for the near term, meaning mid-to-late January or so. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 6:48 p.m. EST): What the heck could I have been thinking when I wrote above that this hot-air balloon would take another week or two to waft up to 3279.3? Looks more like it will happen by Monday, if not sooner.