Rick’s Picks

The geniuses who get paid to throw other people's money at a small handful of stocks appear to have narrowed their task down to an irreducible minimum in 2019. Just four tech biggies -- Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook -- have accounted for fully 20% of the S&P 500's total return so far this year, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Portfolio managers at Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, State Street et al. evidently think and act as one to make certain the game always moves in their favor. By sticking together and even doubling down on companies they might otherwise shun, it's possible to pump stocks full of hot air even when prospects for those companies take a negative turn. For instance, weakening iPhone sales in the U.S. and China have revealed how far Apple has declined as an innovator. Clueless about the next big thing, the Cupertino firm earlier this year drum-rolled a planned leap into a streaming content business so saturated with high-quality "product" that even Netflix, the 800-pound gorilla, seems to be losing steam. As for Facebook, Putin probably enjoys more trust worldwide than Zuckerberg. The latter has so many enemies on Capitol Hill that his proposed cryptocurrency, Libra, may not even get off the ground. Bet on Microsoft The shares of both companies have climbed vertically since early June, so it's safe to say that their respective problems are not even a remote concern to Wall Street's vaunted stock-pickers. Boeing's problems, on the other hand, amount to a full-blown scandal -- one that is liable to produce tort claims well in excess of the $5 billion the company ostentatiously set aside recently following two 737 Max crashes that killed 346 passengers. Even so, the aircraft manufacturer's shares are within 20% of all-time highs, defying gravity simply

You should be out of the long position initiated last Thursday at 2985.50. Numerous subscribers reported doing the trade, which was showing a theoretical profit of around $4900 at Friday's highs. The nasty selloff into the close would have reduced your gains by as much as $2,000, since I'd advised a wide stop-loss at 2971.00 in order to swing for the fences with the contract that remained. Please let me know in the chat room how you fared, since Rick's Picks P&L performance is based solely on what subscribers report, not on hypothetical trades. Looking just ahead, use the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum downside target. The stock market looked like hell all day, and it is not an encouraging sign that it was unable to deliver on a swing-for-the-fences play that just a couple of weeks ago would have been a shoe-in. But before we assume stocks are entering a weak phase (or worse),  let's see how well the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot support fares. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 6:25 p.m. ET): So much for that bearish target at 2962.25. The futures reversed after having gone no lower than 2969 and now appear bound for 3028.75. A pullback to 2984.25 on Wednesday would trigger a mechanical 'buy', stop 2969.25. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:31 p.m.): The futures have traded no higher than 3029.50 so far, so the Hidden Pivot resistance worked, and precisely. Some subscribers evidently got short, but I will need to hear from a few of you before I establish a tracking position. In any event, partial-profit-taking would have been warranted on the 28-point plunge that followed the high. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 9:58 p.m.): The bounce into the close tripped a 'mechanical' short to 2939.50  at x=2983.  I'd suggest spectating, since the low of the

Traders dumped stocks in the final hour on Friday, hinting that there actually is a threshold at which bad news begins to matter. For one, Black Rock, arguably the smartest money on the planet, reported a 7% drop in profits. If they can't cut it, is there any hope for the rest of us?  In the Middle East, Iran was doing more than merely rattling its saber: agents of the mullahs boarded and seized a British-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the threat to global oil supplies. The U.S. and Iran continue to insist they don't want war, but no one is offering any guarantees. Worst of all, the Fed was delivering the kind of news we are supposed to sell: a rate cut of 25 basis points is coming in July.  Since investors' earlier exuberance was focused on rumors of a 50-basis-point cut, it's a wonder the Dow Industrials didn't fall by 400 points rather than a mere 68. A Transparent Ponzi It is predictable that investors, even blinded by greed as they are, will eventually see where the Fed's transparent Ponzi scheme is taking us. By monetizing even more debt, Powell would purport to cushion the U.S. against the effects of an economic implosion that has been gathering force in China and Europe. All he is accomplishing, in fact, is pumping U.S. stocks full of hot gas, including growing leakage from China and Europe. The scheme will likely work for a while, assuming one can contrive to view the gratuitous inflation of U.S. stocks and bonds ahead of a global economic slump as somehow working. Although further enabling this fallacy could produce a veneer of benefits for yet another month or two, only a fool could believe the supposed benefits will last. Most foolish of all

The futures came down hard Friday, but only after they'd rallied sharply above the 16.555 'hidden' resistance I'd proffered as a minimum upside objective. The September contract has used up all of the Hidden Pivot targets that can be derived from the daily chart, so I've switched to the weekly chart for a longer-term perspective. It yields a target at 20.985 that lies 30% above these levels, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 17.423 than can serve as a minimum objective for now. If it is easily exceeded, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 20.985. These numbers are not exact because the pattern from which they were derived is a composite of highs and lows from various contract months going back more than three years. Also, the A-B impulse leg is weaker than we would have preferred, since it failed to get past the series of 'external' peaks recorded in 2013-14. This makes a move into the low 20s less than the near-certainty it would have been if 2016's move off the launching pad had been stronger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:00 p.m.): It's unlikely sellers are spent, since the futures have breached a clear downside target at 16.170 this evening (30-min, A=16.640 on 7/30 at 3:30 p.m.). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1, 6:50 p.m.): Buyers generated a minor impulse leg, but they'll need to push the futures above 16.478 to put the 17.020 rally target of this pattern in play.

Brutal summer heat will likely overshadow whatever the stock market does to entertain us as the week draws to a close. The entire U.S. weather map is shaded red right now, meaning 100-degree temperatures will prevail nearly everywhere. Here in Florida, where humidity can get stuck above 80% for months, the heat index -- i.e., how hot it feels -- could exceed 110 degrees. That's great weather for golf if your goal is to keel over dead with a putter in your hands. The beaches down here offer little relief, since warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures have spawned a flotilla of seaweed that extends 200 feet into the surf and is piled a foot high on the beaches. How will you beat the heat?

For years, gold's corrections have been brutal, and that is why many erstwhile bulls have not rushed to buy this rally. They have instead been waiting for a nasty pullback in order to load up at bargain prices. But Mr Market has not obliged. Instead, retracements have been shallow and rallies steep. The latter have often occurred after-hours, but in one recent instance via a trampoline bounce early in the day. By playing hard-to-get, gold is showing the most encouraging signs we have seen in a long, long while. This evening the August Comex futures have uncorked a 25-pointer, impaling a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1444.40 that is tied to a 1504.00 target first identified here weeks ago.  That is my minimum upside objective at the moment and it should be yours as well if you trade this vehicle. If you want to see how some pros are boldly trading the move so far using GDX call options, stop by the Rick's Picks Trading Room. You can access it by taking a free two-week trial subscription. Simply provide your name and email address at the top of the home page and you will have instant access to the entire site. No credit card is necessary. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:17 p.m.): Gold would need to fall $45 to invalidate the 1504 rally target noted above (click here for the chart). Stranger things have happened, but even that would not negate the bullish look of the daily chart.  In any event, we'll avoid the fray ahead of the Fed's "momentous" announcement concerning an expected 25-basis-point easing._______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:07 p.m.): The moderate selloff tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1409.08, stop 1384.70. The trade is somewhat riskier than we should prefer, since the pullback from the top of the

I have significantly higher targets  outstanding, but for trading purposes and to get a precise handle on the near-term, I'd suggest focusing on the relatively minor Hidden Pivot at 3051.75 shown in the inset. The pattern could set up two trading opportunities: a mechanical buy on a pullback to the green line (2985.50, stop 2963.25); and a short from 3051.75, stop 3053.25. We'll consider a 'reverse' (rABC) for the second trade if and when 3051.75 is reached, but it would require a small pattern created at the presumptive tail-end of the rally to provide a good entry signal. Tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time if you care. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:07 p.m. ET): The mechanical trade triggered at 2989.50 and carries theoretical risk per contract of $1100.  If two or more subscribers are aboard and let me know in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position. Half of the position should be exited at 3007.63, worked o-c-o with the stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:47 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade advised above triggered in the final moments of Wednesday's session and is showing a theoretical gain of $900 per contract at the moment.  The futures are at 3003.50, slightly shy of the midpoint pivot at 3007.63 where I'd suggested exiting half. However, you should do so now, cashing out 75% of the original position in order to nail down a nice gain. Assuming one contract remains from an original four, use the 3051.75 target to exit, making your offer one-cancels-other with a stop-loss at 2963.25. If the trade concludes as planned, the total profit on the position would be $6000.  Several subscribers reported doing the trade. Please keep me apprised in the Trading Room.______ UPDATE (6:06 p.m): Moments after I sent out that last

Facebook gets deservedly bad press, and yet the stock is rapidly approaching record highs. The latest headline suggests the company's planned foray into cryptocurrencies will be stillborn. Trump's administration has cited national security concerns, but the real story is that no one trusts Zuckerberg any longer. Every time he gets caught violating users' privacy in some appalling new way, he offers a perfunctory apology and then returns to business as usual. "We'll try to do better," he invariably says, recalling the Twilight Zone episode in which aliens from outer space present humanity with a book titled How to Serve Man that turns out to be a cookbook. Another negative Facebook story this week that failed to deter exuberant investors concerned the FTC's decision to fine the company $5 billion for past privacy violations that went uncorrected. This is just pocket change, equal to about three months' revenues.  It works out to about $29 for every U.S. subscriber, but don't hold your breath waiting for a check, since such fines never seem to find their way into the pockets of the aggrieved. You can be certain there will be more multibillion dollar levies in the future, if only because Facebook is perceived by its inquisitors as being able to pay them without missing a beat. Wall Street understands this, which explains why investors cynically thumb their noses at every reported instance of evildoing by the company. Like a Government Zuckerberg has all but begged regulators to tell him what he must do to make them happy. Obviously, he is confident he can get around any new rules while seeming to obey them. But we are all clueless as to how we might rein in Facebook. Zuckerberg has allowed that Facebook, with nearly two billion users, is more like a government than

The top of September Silver's spike on Tuesday fell three cents shy of an important 'external' peak recorded back in March. Recall that healthy rallies generate fresh impulse legs with each new thrust. This rally has failed to do so, at least so far, but bulls still deserve the benefit of the doubt because the futures ended the session above the midpoint of their intraday range.  If they are going to impulse above the 15.765 peak, however, the sooner the better, since the longer it takes and the more labored the effort, the less underlying strength there is to be inferred. Regardless, bulls are certain to meet resistance at 15.840, a Hidden Pivot target on the daily chart that comes from A=14.700 on June 10.  There is an additional resistance a nickel lower, at 15.835, from the peak just above our 'external' benchmark (see inset). _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:13 p.m. ET): Buyers surpassed the 15.840 resistance with such ease that a test of resistance at 16.470, where September Silver double topped earlier this year, seems all but inevitable. If the rally exceeds them as easily, it would greatly strengthen the case that a powerful new bull market has begun. More immediately, look for a short-term finishing stroke to 16.190, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown in this chart. _____ UPDATE (Jul 18, 9:48 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded the 16.190 'hidden' resistance and now appear all but certain to hit the next at 16.555.  An easy move past it would put the September contract on course for a shot at a 17.867 peak recorded last June.